ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS @ 120hrs

[Alyono]

i'm going to assume no since this run is almost a carbon copy of the 12z run.

yes, dropsondes are in this run. Sondes have been going into the models since 18Z yesterday

[Kingarabian]

i'm going to assume no since this run is almost a carbon copy of the 12z run.

The 12z had it coming in just north of Wilmington and then going west across most of NC, then south into SC, then back north over Wilmington again. I would say that this is definitely not a carbon copy of the 12z.

But the general idea remains the same. Yesterdays 12z run compared to the 18z + 00z runs with the G-IV data showed a meaningful change. I could be wrong though.

[Kingarabian]

i'm going to assume no since this run is almost a carbon copy of the 12z run.

yes, dropsondes are in this run. Sondes have been going into the models since 18Z yesterday

Ah okay. Thanks for the clarification.

[RL3AO]

Maybe the 18z run didn't change because its right.

[Hammy]

GFS high-res storm centered run has 926mb and barely Cat 3 winds, kind of odd.

[1900hurricane]

Each new GFS run has been a little deeper. 18Z drops all the way down to 924 mb at tau 66 before the already mentioned 937 mb near landfall. The dual outflow channels it keeps opening up is impressive.

[Ivanhater]

I only see 977 at landfall?

[Hammy]

I only see 977 at landfall?

I meant for peak. Is the model having issues with wind or will the gradient be somewhat flat?

Edit: Landfall shows 946mb/85kt, which is still an odd wind-pressure relationship.

[Kingarabian]

GFS high-res storm centered run has 926mb and barely Cat 3 winds, kind of odd.

Well, for the past 6-10 hours the storm had big deviations between pressure and wind speed. Lots of wind lag. Right now it's down to 967mb and it's only 85mph in wind speed.

[1900hurricane]

I only see 977 at landfall?

Make sure you're using the full resolution version. A good place to find it is to look at "Surface Pressure and 10 m Wind" on Levi Cowan's site.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2015093018&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=131

[Hammy]

GFS high-res storm centered run has 926mb and barely Cat 3 winds, kind of odd.

Well, for the past 6-10 hours the storm had big deviations between pressure and wind speed. Lots of wind lag. Right now it's down to 967mb and it's only 85mph in wind speed.

This is continuing to cast doubt for me as far as the intensity forecast--I still don't see it getting higher than Cat 2 at the moment.

[Alyono]

GFS high-res storm centered run has 926mb and barely Cat 3 winds, kind of odd.

Well, for the past 6-10 hours the storm had big deviations between pressure and wind speed. Lots of wind lag. Right now it's down to 967mb and it's only 85mph in wind speed.

This is continuing to cast doubt for me as far as the intensity forecast--I still don't see it getting higher than Cat 2 at the moment.

you may bust by later tonight

[1900hurricane]

I only see 977 at landfall?

I meant for peak. Is the model having issues with wind or will the gradient be somewhat flat?

Edit: Landfall shows 946mb/85kt, which is still an odd wind-pressure relationship.

It's probably a model resolution or physics thing. It's done that all year in the Western Pacific too.

[Ivanhater]

I only see 977 at landfall?

Make sure you're using the full resolution version. A good place to find it is to look at "Surface Pressure and 10 m Wind" on Levi Cowan's site.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2015093018&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=131

Wow...could be the first major hurricane strike on the U.S. in a decade

[Steve]

ninel,

I think it's a possibility with merged energy or a phase with that front or frontal low where Joaquin (or some of it) merges with or into a larger circulation rather than remaining a separate entity system.

For who asked for the link to the NAM, and caution that it's one of the worst in tropics but not always bad synoptically, Google (bing handles differently) "NCEP Models" and you will see links to GFS, nam and nam hi-res. here is the direct link to the site.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... =namer&ps=

[Hammy]

Something I just noticed, the GFS full-res initializes Joaquin with both lower winds and higher pressure than the measured intensity, starting at 979mb and what appears to be 50-60kt.

For who asked for the link to the NAM, and caution that it's one of the worst in tropics but not always bad synoptically, Google (bing handles differently) "NCEP Models" and you will see links to GFS, nam and nam hi-res. here is the direct link to the site.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... =namer&ps=

Tropical Tidbits has it as well, much higher resolution. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015093018&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Dean4Storms]

It's hard to believe that intensity with it caught up by a large Trough with lots of dry and cool air being thrown into the mix, we'll see I guess!

[TheStormExpert]

I only see 977 at landfall?

Make sure you're using the full resolution version. A good place to find it is to look at "Surface Pressure and 10 m Wind" on Levi Cowan's site.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2015093018&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=131

Wow...could be the first major hurricane strike on the U.S. in a decade

I'd still be skeptical thankfully about that.

[Nimbus]

The NHC mentioned the system was expected to drift into an area of upper level difluent wind flow.
Looks like there is some clockwise flow around high pressure NW of Cuba that would effect the western side circulation of Joaquin? Or could that high bridge up over the storm?

If the models keep initializing the storm further and further SW possibly the solutions may change.