ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

yes i don't like still moving sw Bahamas not far from fl coast line

[summersquall]

As an aside, it IS really amazing that we are looking at a storm in The Bahamas moving "generally" in our direction and there is zero concern here in Florida!

Yes, it is unique to have "hurricane warnings" soooo close yet...

[T'Bonz]

Never thought I'd see the day where they'd go against the Euro!

[Aric Dunn]

starting to look better on IR with S , SE and E and NE eyewall maintaining a bit more. ALso so deeper convection building on the western half too

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[xcool22]

Euro go to win anyway next

[AutoPenalti]

Anyone else noticed the wobble loop the last few frames?

[pgoss11]

These types of storms are the reason why I love tracking hurricanes. So many variables that have to be considered and the unknown possibilities that still exist. Weather is so amazing and I never expected this in an El Nino year. So this storm is an amazing bonus! I hope everyone who has to deal with the storm stays safe.

[floridasun78]

will get close to cuba coast the way going?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm shocked by the amount of -removed- and even downright hysteria in this thread. People, and I mainly mean newbies, take a deep breath and wait until the Gulfstream data is ingested into the models later tonight. We'll have a much better idea then what exactly will happen.

[caneman]

Euro go to win anyway next

other than hyberbole, what data or opinion do you have to share with us?

[SunnyThoughts]

]Gov. Terry McAuliffe has declared a state of emergency in Virginia because of heavy rains and the potential touchdown of Hurricane Joaquin this weekend, he tweeted this evening.

http://hamptonroads.com/2015/09/gov-mca ... ane-impact

[tatertawt24]

I'm shocked by the amount of -removed- and even downright hysteria in this thread. People, and I mainly mean newbies, take a deep breath and wait until the Gulfstream data is ingested into the models later tonight. We'll have a much better idea then what exactly will happen.

It's because it's been almost three years since a situation like this. Unless you count Arthur, which had pretty much no hype.

[LarryWx]

The NHC adjusted another 0.2 degrees further south at 5 PM to 23.9 N.

Furthest south of last 9 NHC tracks in degrees north:

27.5
26.7
26.6
26.0
24.8
24.8
24.7
24.1
23.9

Are the southward adjustments likely over or are there likely going to be more to come?

[ozonepete]

Doing something weird now. Looks like it dropped due south and/or is looping. And yes, of course I know it's really hard to visually assess the motion with so much cloudiness obscuring the eye and also wobble watching fatigue, but it's doing something weird.

[Aric Dunn]

Doing something weird now. Looks like it dropped due south and/or is looping. And yes, of course I know it's really hard to visually assess the motion with so much cloudiness obscuring the eye and also wobble watching fatigue, but it's doing something weird.

Every convective burst going to tug on it.. we will seeeeeeeeee

[SeGaBob]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
421 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COMPLEX SETUP WITH TWO MAJOR SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
CUT OFF AT A POSITION NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WHERE THIS SYSTEM CUTS OFF WILL LIKELY HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE SECOND MAJOR SYSTEM...JOAQUIN AND WHERE IT WILL
TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS EXTREMELY LARGE UNCERTAINLY WITH THE
TRACK OF JOAQUIN...IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE AREA NO MATTER WHAT PATH IT TAKES.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT....INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...DEEP
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES QUITE A
BIT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SYNOPTIC AND LIKELY MESOSCALE
FEATURES WILL MAXIMIZE RAIN THREAT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS LIKELY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH INCREASES...UPPER SUPPORT IS
MAXIMIZED AS UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO NEAR 2.25 ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE VERY BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT
HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...BUT CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...STILL ACTIVE WEATHER DUE TO BOTH THE UPPER SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY JOAQUIN PASSING BY TO OUR EAST. RAISED RAIN
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MANY OPERATIONAL
RUNS HAVE TRENDED JOAQUIN A BIT CLOSER TO AREA. STILL COULD HAVE
SOME HEAVY RAIN AND IT IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN
AND WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM RESIDES THAT RAIN TOTALS COULD EVEN BE HIGHER THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. IF THAT OCCURS...SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH...COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD OF 5 TO 10 INCHES.

[arlwx]

[quote="green eyed girl"]Is anyone familiar with how storm surge and flooding affects Virginia Beach during a hurricane? My daughter and her family just moved there a few months ago since her husband is in the navy and we are familiar with hurricanes here in New Orleans, but not in Virginia Beach. They are preparing now just in case it does come their way, but I would like her to have an idea of what she could expect. Thank you![/quote]

Research Hurricane Isabel (2003) with a 7-10 foot storm surge.

IF your daughter is next to the water, urge her to pack up all the irreplaceables today and make tentative reservations for a motel/hotel in the west of Richmond (high ground) for Friday/Saturday and beyond. And pack everything needed for 5-7 days of no food, no water, no lights, toilets out... Even though Alexandria VA is inland, they had a major storm surge too. And my house up on a hill in northern VA lost power for three days.

She can always cancel a reservation 24 hours out if the forecasts suddenly become less threatening.

[ozonepete]

Doing something weird now. Looks like it dropped due south and/or is looping. And yes, of course I know it's really hard to visually assess the motion with so much cloudiness obscuring the eye and also wobble watching fatigue, but it's doing something weird.

Every convective burst going to tug on it.. we will seeeeeeeeee

Yeah Aric, I know you would say we have to wait longer than a few hours of a loop to find any aberrations and that's 100% true.

[MGC]

Is anyone familiar with how storm surge and flooding affects Virginia Beach during a hurricane? My daughter and her family just moved there a few months ago since her husband is in the navy and we are familiar with hurricanes here in New Orleans, but not in Virginia Beach. They are preparing now just in case it does come their way, but I would like her to have an idea of what she could expect. Thank you!

Research Hurricane Isabel (2003) with a 7-10 foot storm surge.

IF your daughter is next to the water, urge her to pack up all the irreplaceables today and make tentative reservations for a motel/hotel in the west of Richmond (high ground) for Friday/Saturday and beyond. And pack everything needed for 5-7 days of no food, no water, no lights, toilets out... Even though Alexandria VA is inland, they had a major storm surge too. And my house up on a hill in northern VA lost power for three days.


She can always cancel a reservation 24 hours out if the forecasts suddenly become less threatening.

Make sure they book a hotel not near a river. Virginia might see some historic flooding like Camille did in 1969.......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Doing something weird now. Looks like it dropped due south and/or is looping. And yes, of course I know it's really hard to visually assess the motion with so much cloudiness obscuring the eye and also wobble watching fatigue, but it's doing something weird.

Every convective burst going to tug on it.. we will seeeeeeeeee

Yeah Aric, I know you would say we have to wait longer than a few hours of a loop to find any aberrations and that's 100% true.

buuut the waiiitttt is sooooo loongg..

recon is about 2 hours away though