ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Huge eye according to Jeff Masters blog today.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft made two penetrations of Joaquin's center on Wednesday morning, and found top surface winds of 80 mph, a central pressure of 971 mb, and a huge 54-mile diameter eye with a fully closed eyewall.

yeah it can be seen in the earlier microwave images. that will contract and winds will likely come up..


Also to note on what i mentioned earlier about the upper levels not not fully developed in terms of an eye.. the low to mid levels are well established and likely keeping that steady pace while the eye feature we see is bouncing everywhere while it becomes more established.

this means dont try a track the motion with that feature on satellite its just going to give false positions.

[Nimbus]

All models are shifting farther south for landfall - North Carolina vs. Virginia. All models, that is, except the Eurpoean which takes it north of Bermuda and near Ireland at day 10. NHC is still wondering if the EC is right, so they likely won't make any significant track shift this afternoon - splitting the difference between most of the models and the EC. That pretty much guarantees their track will be wrong, but not as wrong as if they indicated a U.S. landfall and the EC track was right.

That trough could amplify dig and sweep Joaquin off to Ireland.
Otherwise as the song goes "There is trouble ahead" with a cat 4 and a track towards NC/Virginia!

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow:

Here's an hour old ATMS pass:

where did you get that from... NRL link i have does not have that ..

[Weatherwatcher98]

All models are shifting farther south for landfall - North Carolina vs. Virginia. All models, that is, except the Eurpoean which takes it north of Bermuda and near Ireland at day 10. NHC is still wondering if the EC is right, so they likely won't make any significant track shift this afternoon - splitting the difference between most of the models and the EC. That pretty much guarantees their track will be wrong, but not as wrong as if they indicated a U.S. landfall and the EC track was right.

Your going with the Euro???

Weatherwatcher98, several pages up thread wxman57 predicted a NC outer banks then Virginia beach landfall on Sunday as a CAT 2 storm.

Thanks pretty sure he is second guessing that now

[Frank2]

It appears to be completing a counterclockwise loop - we shall see which direction it goes when it starts to loop northward again...

Frank

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow:

Here's an hour old ATMS pass:

where did you get that from... NRL link i have does not have that ..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks I lost all my links...

[Hammy]

FNMOC doesn't have a data archive like NRL but it seems to be more up to date.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon just took off from MS so they should be there in a couple of hours

[Kingarabian]

FNMOC doesn't have a data archive like NRL but it seems to be more up to date.

Certainly. It's also well advised to use both the FNMOC site and the NRL site. Sometimes NRL gets passes that FNMOC does not have and vice-versa.

[Blown Away]

Hurricane near 73W and south of 25N moving SW is no threat to Florida... Shows how much more confident forecasts and modeling are today even with the long term model disagreement...

[Aric Dunn]

Very cold hot tower just popped on the SE eyewall. its trying to clear that eye out..that thing is wobbling all over the place... glad no one is tracking that warm spot right ???

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[green eyed girl]

Is anyone familiar with how storm surge and flooding affects Virginia Beach during a hurricane? My daughter and her family just moved there a few months ago since her husband is in the navy and we are familiar with hurricanes here in New Orleans, but not in Virginia Beach. They are preparing now just in case it does come their way, but I would like her to have an idea of what she could expect. Thank you!

[Aric Dunn]

Love when satellite is in rapid scan mode..

[Kingarabian]

[Sanibel]

You can see the clouds over my house moving with the inflow into Joaquin.

[TimeZone]

Very cold hot tower just popped on the SE eyewall. its trying to clear that eye out..that thing is wobbling all over the place... glad no one is tracking that warm spot right ???

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I'd like to see it fire some towers from the Western side before I jump on the RI bandwagon.

[GeneratorPower]

Very cold cloud tops

Hurricane near 73W and south of 25N moving SW is no threat to Florida... Shows how much more confident forecasts and modeling are today even with the long term model disagreement...

Yeah except one day they are going to be badly wrong with one of these storms.

[SunnyThoughts]

[tatertawt24]

Not sure where they're getting the "large eye" from. That's a pinhole peeking out if I've ever seen one.