ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Weatherwatcher98]

Wow from what I am reading seems like some people want a Major Hurricane To impact them. Weird

[emeraldislenc]

so what does all this mean?

[stormlover2013]

means lets wait and see still have time

[txwatcher91]

The reason why I think the Euro may verify is because the GFS in its past few runs has changed around and may be showing signs of cracking.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

GFS has shifted south, if it was going towards the Euro solution it would be going OTS not further south into NC/SC region for landfall. Even the high resolution RGEM out to 48 hours moves N to NNW. I see no model to support the Euro it's all alone and at some point I would expect it to begin changing its solution similar to the other models. Landfall point is way out but certainly those from SC to VA need to keep an especially close eye on this.

[wxmann_91]

Intensity guidance is down which is likely another sign it will peak at a Cat 2.

- In 2012 Euro was the first to sniff Sandy.
- In 2007 Euro led the pack in the south tracks of Dean and Felix
- In 2008 Euro led the pack in the south track of Ike
- I'm not even going to begin with non-tropical events.

All previous season data is invalid for this year--the models were upgraded and the Euro has performed poorly this year. Keep in mind the four major hurricanes it showed that never happened, two of which failed to form altogether. It has been up there with the CMC in accuracy for much of this season.

Models are upgraded every year. Does that mean all performance statistics are useless? No.

Euro has been poor with intensity, but with track it's just as valid as the GFS. My point is that when GFS and Euro diverge (which doesn't happen often, but it's happening now), the Euro tends to win. (The one instance of Debby aside)

[Hammy]

Intensity guidance is down which is likely another sign it will peak at a Cat 2.

- In 2012 Euro was the first to sniff Sandy.
- In 2007 Euro led the pack in the south tracks of Dean and Felix
- In 2008 Euro led the pack in the south track of Ike
- I'm not even going to begin with non-tropical events.

All previous season data is invalid for this year--the models were upgraded and the Euro has performed poorly this year. Keep in mind the four major hurricanes it showed that never happened, two of which failed to form altogether. It has been up there with the CMC in accuracy for much of this season.

Models are upgraded every year. Does that mean all performance statistics are useless? No.

Euro has been poor with intensity, but with track it's just as valid as the GFS. My point is that when GFS and Euro diverge (which doesn't happen often, but it's happening now), the Euro tends to win. (The one instance of Debby aside)

The Euro has still had a right bias this entire season. And being poor with intensity means poor track because the track is often dictated by intensity, where more often than not they go to the right when stronger.

[Yellow Evan]

Regarding intensity, I still think we will see a Category 3 or 4 out of this. Once this gets a well-organized inner core and poleward outflow increases, I am expecting another round of RI

[Kingarabian]

The reason why I think the Euro may verify is because the GFS in its past few runs has changed around and may be showing signs of cracking.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

GFS has shifted south, if it was going towards the Euro solution it would be going OTS not further south into NC/SC region for landfall. Even the high resolution RGEM out to 48 hours moves N to NNW. I see no model to support the Euro it's all alone and at some point I would expect it to begin changing its solution similar to the other models. Landfall point is way out but certainly those from SC to VA need to keep an especially close eye on this.

I know one has a landfall and one has an OTS scenario. But the GFS has been trending south each run and closer to the Bahamas in accordance with the Euro in the short term. How south Joaquin will be and if that will determine the track remains to be seen

[Kingarabian]

The Euro has still had a right bias this entire season. And being poor with intensity means poor track because the track is often dictated by intensity, where more often than not they go to the right when stronger.

But in Joaquin case, both the GFS and the Euro have a very deep storm.

[wxmann_91]

Models are upgraded every year. Does that mean all performance statistics are useless? No.

Euro has been poor with intensity, but with track it's just as valid as the GFS. My point is that when GFS and Euro diverge (which doesn't happen often, but it's happening now), the Euro tends to win. (The one instance of Debby aside)

The Euro has still had a right bias this entire season. And being poor with intensity means poor track because the track is often dictated by intensity, where more often than not they go to the right when stronger.

No poor intensity does not necessarily imply poor track (the correlation is better in the other direction). What you're referring to with stronger storms => more poleward track is beta drift, whose effect is small compared to synoptic influences, and is only evident if the intensity forecast is WAY off. Granted, yes the Euro has been so off with intensity this year that the track suffers greatly, but that is not relevant for this case as Joaquin has already outperformed initial intensity projections.

[BobHarlem]

I think the euro is seeing some energy come from the low thats near the Azores (look at Atlantic water vapor) that may sling down toward Berumda opening up a hole for Joaquin to shoot through. I think it's actually more likely to go out to sea the more south/west Joaquin gets than if it does not because of that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/h5-loop-wv.html

--
Not an official forecast.

[LarryWx]

12Z JMA gives Beaufort to Charleston corridor 12" of rain fwiw. Cut that in half and that obviously would still be a major event:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... n_us_7.png

This represents about a 100 mile SW trend since yesterday's 12Z JMA run for the same timeframe.

If SEGaBob and Jax as well as others in those areas are reading this, I think this as well as the continued SW trend of the models since yesterday as well as actual Joaquin movement further south than progged is a signal that the all clear can't yet be given to you for potential major impacts from this. At the least, it looks like there's a good bit more uncertainty than it appeared early yesterday. If you'll recall my reply to SeGaBob who asked about potential impacts to him. I had said basically the chances were very low since no model had anything close and none showed a steering high to the north to bring it NW into those areas. Now with these two JMA runs as well as the SW trend of model consensus, I'm not so sure there won't end up being a steering high in combo with a steering upper low below it to possibly bring it NW into or near your areas. I still think the chances are fairly low but they aren't nearly as low as I had thought yesterday. Until the model consensus' SW trend stops, I won't have a lot of confidence. So, stay abreast!

[ronjon]

Interesting that all the intensity models drop off dramatically after 72 hours - It's called landfall. Which makes the Euro so much of an anomaly now. We need to see the ensemble runs for the ECM.

[northjaxpro]

12Z JMA gives Beaufort to Charleston corridor 12" of rain fwiw. Cut that in half and that obviously would still be a major event:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... n_us_7.png

This represents about a 100 mile SW trend since yesterday's 12Z JMA run for the same timeframe.

If SEGaBob and Jax as well as others in those areas are reading this, I think this as well as the continued SW trend of the models since yesterday as well as actual Joaquin movement further south than progged is a signal that the all clear can't yet be given to you for potential major impacts from this. At the least, it looks like there's a good bit more uncertainty than it appeared early yesterday. If you'll recall my reply to SeGaBob who asked about potential impacts to him. I had said basically the chances were very low since no model had anything close and none showed a strong enough steering high to the north to bring it NW into those areas. Now with these two JMA runs as well as the SW trend of model consensus, I'm not so sure there won't end up being a steering high to possibly bring it NW into or near your areas. Until the model consensus' SW trend stops, I won't have a lot of confidence. So, stay abreast!

Well, the biggest wild card is the possibility of Joaquin pumping the ridge that is currently steering it to the southwest. I know gatorcane and.I have discussed this possibilty since yesterday. I have seen intense hurricanes pump a riidge, as if it is creating its own environment. I will say this Larry. If the southwest movement is still occuring 24 hours from the time of this post, then we will know for sure thst Joaquin is pumping the ridge imo. If that turns out to be the case, then everyone on the U.S. East Coast will really need to stay vigilant. This is because a continued SW motion over time will causr the turn northward to be closer to the U.S.East Coast on Joaquin's approach. Definitely a plausible scenario that we must watch for very closely.

[LarryWx]

I know it stinks in accuracy, but the 12Z NAVGEM is also further SW than its prior runs like the consensus and goes into upper SC:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_13.png

[ronjon]

This is funny. From the washington post METs.

Capital Weather Gang Retweeted
Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 1h1 hour ago
Lot of talk about Euro model regarding #Joaquin forecast track. I remember Euro really nailed a late January snowstorm. Oh wait. It didn't.

[blazess556]

Latest ECMWF ensembles made a big jump to the east toward the op run. Until the southwest movement ends, I think the EC may be correct. A further south hurricane will likely feel a stronger influence to move east.

[Weatherwatcher98]

This is funny. From the washington post METs.

Capital Weather Gang Retweeted
Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 1h1 hour ago
Lot of talk about Euro model regarding #Joaquin forecast track. I remember Euro really nailed a late January snowstorm. Oh wait. It didn't.

Snow and tropics are completely different animals. I would be embarrassed to tweet that

[brunota2003]

18Z GFS should begin running any time now, right?

[Hammy]

18Z GFS should begin running any time now, right?

I believe the run starts shortly before 6pm EDT.