ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

[Aric Dunn]

Its better not to look at long term solutions when there is a hurricane established. a series of short term adjustments make things a lot more concrete and accurate. its called model "guidance" for a reason not Model certainty

[Aric Dunn]

So all the models trend west while the euro goes east.. lol..

[ronjon]

LOL - thus might be the first time the Euro and LBAR have the same forecast track!

[TheStormExpert]

18z Intensity Guidance

[caneman]

From Jeff Masters blog yesterday. Let the model wars begin! LOL.

Which track model should you trust?
According to the 2014 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2015, in 2014 we had two track models that at times out-performed the official NHC forecast, a feat that is tough to do. NOAA's HWRF model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast for 2-day and 3-day forecasts, while the UK Met Office's forecast did slightly better than NHC's 4-day and 5-day forecasts. Once again, the European Center (ECMWF) and GFS models excellent performers, but the GFDL model, a excellent performer in recent years, had substantially poorer forecasts than the other four models. The Canadian CMC model and simple BAMM model had accuracies comparable to the GFDL model. The European Center model and GFS models were virtually tied as the best performing models when averaged over the three-year period 2012 - 2014.

ahh, finally some good solid and factual info. Did all of thee King Euro lovers read that last sentence? always go with the blend

[SunnyThoughts]

So all the models trend west while the euro goes east.. lol..

Yes Aric, so what does the NHC do? lol Certainly have to give the euro weight in its scenario...so possibly move the landfall probabilities farther up the coast maybe, as a compromise? No idea myself, very interesting to see how things unfold the next few days. Anybody along the East coast needs to be ready..don't wait till the last moment to prepare.


Not a forecast, please stay tuned to the NHC and local media outlets for up to date information.

[Bocadude85]

Can anyone answer the Pressure questions???? East Florida has lowering Pressures. I don't live there btw just curious.

Yes the pressure has been falling all day.

[Aric Dunn]

So all the models trend west while the euro goes east.. lol..

Yes Aric, so what does the NHC do? lol Certainly have to give the euro weight in its scenario...so possibly move the landfall probabilities farther up the coast maybe, as a compromise? No idea myself, very interesting to see how things unfold the next few days. Anybody along the East coast needs to be ready..don't wait till the last moment to prepare.


Not a forecast, please stay tuned to the NHC and local media outlets for up to date information.

will have to wait for euro ensembles ... if they are split again then nhc probably wont change anything.

[wxmann_91]

For the record, in terms of track, the Euro bests the GFS 99% of the time, even if the other models are in GFS's camp and the Euro is an outlier. This is just something I've noticed in years of tracking. For that reason I have to side with the Euro recurve scenario for now.

While I'd generally agree, no way is it anywhere near 99%.

wwman. No,where close to 99 percent. Please be sure to use a disclaimer for outlandish statements or at minimum back it up woth data. I showed in an an earlier thread where the euros performance was not any better than some of the others for 99. The Euro did have one or 2 solid years but that's it.further, you can't at first say it's going to hit land and then change it a few runs ago and claim that as some kind of coup de' tate.

Here's some data:

- In 2012 Euro was the first to sniff Sandy.
- In 2007 Euro led the pack in the south tracks of Dean and Felix
- In 2008 Euro led the pack in the south track of Ike
- I'm not even going to begin with non-tropical events.

[LarryWx]

Yesterday's 12Z JMA hr 96: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_5.png

Today's 12Z JMA hr 72: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_4.png

Translation: today's 12Z JMA has Joaquin ~150 miles south of yesterday's 12Z JMA for same time. Almost all upper level features all around are 100-200 miles further SW. Translation: consistent with threat on US being further and further SW in the SE US.

Yesterday's 12Z JMA was a major outlier since it hit lower SC:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_6.png

This lower SC hit had been the only run of any major model that had gone that far SW hitting the US. All other hits were NC northward. Today's JMA US destination has still not been released on this site. But it is liable to be another south outlier being that its 72 hour map has Joaquin and upper level features either S or SW of yesterday's run.

Is JMA by chance a model that needs to be paid attention to being that it may be ahead of the other models in trending SW?

Further to the above and not surprisingly based on what I said there about today's 12Z JMA hour 72, the 12Z JMA hour 96 hits between Beaufort and Charleston, SC, for the second run in a row. Today's 96 is virtually identical to yesterday's 120 at SC landfall. What happens on both runs is this: instead of the SE US upper low boomeranging it back to NC like the non-Euro model consensus is doing, the upper low and Joaquin merge thus allowing for a further SW hit in lower SC. Is this possible?

Yesterday's 12Z JMA hour 120: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... p_us_6.png
Today's 12Z JMA 96: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... p_us_5.png

Keep in mind that this extreme outlier scenario continues to be exclusive to the JMA. However, what is interesting is that the non-Euro consensus model trend has been steadily SW in hitting the US since yesterday. Is the JMA trying to tell us that SC and maybe even further south into GA and FL may not be in the clear from a direct hit after all?

[NDG]

The Euro might be right in Joaquin staying down in the Bahamas longer and the trough not been able to pulled it towards the Mid Atlantic States in time, this makes it 4 runs in a row and so far has been the model that has performed the best with Joaquin's track and strength.

[tolakram]

Here's some data:

- In 2012 Euro was the first to sniff Sandy.
- In 2007 Euro led the pack in the south tracks of Dean and Felix
- In 2008 Euro led the pack in the south track of Ike
- I'm not even going to begin with non-tropical events.

As posted above, statistics (actual compiled data) show otherwise in the last two years. Bringing up something the model did 6 and 7 years ago is not really relevant to current years performance.

I think we've all had our say on this, lets get back to 2015 and Joaquin please.

[Blown Away]

Overall western trend since 00z...

[Siker]

While I'd generally agree, no way is it anywhere near 99%.

wwman. No,where close to 99 percent. Please be sure to use a disclaimer for outlandish statements or at minimum back it up woth data. I showed in an an earlier thread where the euros performance was not any better than some of the others for 99. The Euro did have one or 2 solid years but that's it.further, you can't at first say it's going to hit land and then change it a few runs ago and claim that as some kind of coup de' tate.

Here's some data:

- In 2012 Euro was the first to sniff Sandy.
- In 2007 Euro led the pack in the south tracks of Dean and Felix
- In 2008 Euro led the pack in the south track of Ike
- I'm not even going to begin with non-tropical events.

Also in 2012, the Euro completely messed up Debby. It has not had a better track record than other models this year either.

[windnrain]

This is going to be the model war of all model wars... and a potential major hurricane hangs in the balance.

[caneman]

Here's some data:

- In 2012 Euro was the first to sniff Sandy.
- In 2007 Euro led the pack in the south tracks of Dean and Felix
- In 2008 Euro led the pack in the south track of Ike
- I'm not even going to begin with non-tropical events.

As posted above, statistics (actual compiled data) show otherwise in the last two years. Bringing up something the model did 6 and 7 years ago is not really relevant to current years performance.

I think we've all had our say on this, lets get back to 2015 and Joaquin please.

agreed and RonJon posted actual nhc info above as far as verifiable model data for the last 3 years if.anyone cares.thanks.

[Kingarabian]

The reason why I think the Euro may verify is because the GFS in its past few runs has changed around and may be showing signs of cracking.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

Intensity guidance is down which is likely another sign it will peak at a Cat 2.

- In 2012 Euro was the first to sniff Sandy.
- In 2007 Euro led the pack in the south tracks of Dean and Felix
- In 2008 Euro led the pack in the south track of Ike
- I'm not even going to begin with non-tropical events.

All previous season data is invalid for this year--the models were upgraded and the Euro has performed poorly this year. Keep in mind the four major hurricanes it showed that never happened, two of which failed to form altogether. It has been up there with the CMC in accuracy for much of this season.

[wxmann_91]

Here's some data:

- In 2012 Euro was the first to sniff Sandy.
- In 2007 Euro led the pack in the south tracks of Dean and Felix
- In 2008 Euro led the pack in the south track of Ike
- I'm not even going to begin with non-tropical events.

As posted above, statistics (actual compiled data) show otherwise in the last two years. Bringing up something the model did 6 and 7 years ago is not really relevant to current years performance.

I think we've all had our say on this, lets get back to 2015 and Joaquin please.

There haven't been any TC's in the past few years. And I'm talking about significant events where there was a big disagreement between GFS and Euro.

Even then, the quotes that have been presented in the past few posts have only states the GFS and Euro have been on par with each other. 2013 and 2012 reports convey the same idea.