ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Frank2]

Jim Cantore was waiting for the EURO to run - what's the verdict?

P.S. Oops, sorry Mark - didn't see your post. Right now it seems to be completing a loop - one of those later season out of the ordinary tracks...

Frank2

[PTrackerLA]

Remember TS Debby from a years ago? EURO wanted to take a TC west into south Texas and GFS insisted NE unto Florida. That was a huge fail for that model. No clue what to think right now...

[WeatherEmperor]

I think the one positive is that we should know soon if the euro has the right idea with the far south track.

I agree. I think the Euro was the only model bringing it this far south to begin with so maybe its right afterall


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[tolakram]

Guys - I have access to a Euro ensemble, I cannot post it, where half of the members send it into VA. The rest are sending it out to sea on the path that you see here. Does anyone else have access to them so they can confirm what I am saying? It's an experimental model so posting it is strictly prohibited.

Euro ensemble runs an hour after the main run. It's not experimental but generally paid only.

0Z mean, which averages all the runs together.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2015093000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

We will be able to see the 12Z ensemble runs later today.

[stormlover2013]

PTracker Debby center relocated that's why that happened

[tolakram]

Jim Cantore was waiting for the EURO to run - what's the verdict?

Frank2

It ran on time, disagrees with every other model.

[Frank2]

Ah - that explains why Jim hasn't tweeted - his earlier tweet suggested the EURO agreeing was the clincher.

Guess someone dropped the fly ball : )

Frank2

[Weatherwatcher98]

Remember TS Debby from a years ago? EURO wanted to take a TC west into south Texas and GFS insisted NE unto Florida. That was a huge fail for that model. No clue what to think right now...

That was before the upgrades to both models though.

[ROCK]

what I want to see is the NHC's blend with this EURO run and all the other guidance...lol

yes I hug the EURO...

[caneman]

For the record, in terms of track, the Euro bests the GFS 99% of the time, even if the other models are in GFS's camp and the Euro is an outlier. This is just something I've noticed in years of tracking. For that reason I have to side with the Euro recurve scenario for now.

While I'd generally agree, no way is it anywhere near 99%.

wwman. No,where close to 99 percent. Please be sure to use a disclaimer for outlandish statements or at minimum back it up woth data. I showed in an an earlier thread where the euros performance was not any better than some of the others for 99. The Euro did have one or 2 solid years but that's it.further, you can't at first say it's going to hit land and then change it a few runs ago and claim that as some kind of coup de' tate.

[stormlover2013]

the JMA run is weird also

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=155

[tolakram]

Navgem had hurricane force winds in Cincinnati. Bad models are bad.

[ROCK]

For the record, in terms of track, the Euro bests the GFS 99% of the time, even if the other models are in GFS's camp and the Euro is an outlier. This is just something I've noticed in years of tracking. For that reason I have to side with the Euro recurve scenario for now.

While I'd generally agree, no way is it anywhere near 99%.

wwman. No,where close to 99 percent. Please be sure to use a disclaimer for outlandish statements or at minimum back it up woth data. I showed in an an earlier thread where the euros performance was not any better than some of the others for 99. The Euro did have one or 2 solid years but that's it.further, you can't at first say it's going to hit land and then change it a few runs ago and claim that as some kind of coupe de tate.

not entirely true, the EURO sniffed out IKE's huge westward shift from Florida way before any other model....you cannot totally disregard 3 runs on a row showing an OTS scenario.

[Bocadude85]

King Euro: I SAID out to sea...did I stutter?

GFS: We shall see..KE...we shall see

Farther West but still this is a wild scenario...loving the drama...

On a side note Pressure in Miami is 29.79????

Down to 29.77 here.

[Stormcenter]

Fish storm per EURO....time to move along, nothing to see here.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Can anyone answer the Pressure questions???? East Florida has lowering Pressures. I don't live there btw just curious.

[caneman]

While I'd generally agree, no way is it anywhere near 99%. [/quote] wwman. No,where close to 99 percent. Please be sure to use a disclaimer for outlandish statements or at minimum back it up woth data. I showed in an an earlier thread where the euros performance was not any better than some of the others for 99. The Euro did have one or 2 solid years but that's it.further, you can't at first say it's going to hit land and then change it a few runs ago and claim that as some kind of coupe de tate.[/quote]

not entirely true, the EURO sniffed out IKE's huge westward shift from Florida way before any other model....you cannot totally disre6gard 3 runs on a row showing an OTS scenario.[/quote] euro had a west.bias on 99. Had it going to la.and Ms. Only at about 48 hours was it correct but so we're half of the other models at that point. It's 4 and 5 days forecast this year haven't been good.I'm not stating I trust the gfs any more than the Euro but it's certainly made up ground. Besides I always go with the nhc blend anyhow but that's just me.

[chaser1]

12Z Euro at 72 is about 50-100 miles SW of its 0Z Euro 84 hour position. Also, upper level low over SE and upper level high to the NW are slightly further west. I expect this will mean an even further west track than the 0Z Euro but probably still missing the US. This will likely mean further west of Bermuda than the 0Z Euro had.

This is by far the most important information thus far, that I have gleaned from this 12 Euro run

1) It appears to me that the overall evolution of the forecasted large cut off low over the Southeast U.S., was too fast.

2) It clearly sounds as if the location of this cut off low may now be a little further north and west

3) Per 2:00pm T.P.O, the remnants of Ida are slowly becoming better organized well NNE of Puerto Rico however slowly moving north to northwest

"My Guess" on these subtle ramifications along with Joaquin's present speed and motion, is that Joaquin continues to move at a slightly faster than forecast speed on a WSW heading becoming more due westerly on Thursday. A track further west than forecast will occur where Joaquin will finally respond to a steering flow while just east of Andros Island and begin a motion towards the NNW directly impacting the Exumas and Eastern Grand Bahama Island, followed by a track becoming more Northerly where Joaquin will approach the North Carolina Outer Banks.

[windnrain]

I wish I could post the Euro Ensemble. It's an experimental model only available to meteorologists, and it has half of its solutions following the GFS solution into Virginia. The main Euro though is one ensemble member and it has that one going east.

[ronjon]

From Jeff Masters blog yesterday. Let the model wars begin! LOL.

Which track model should you trust?
According to the 2014 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2015, in 2014 we had two track models that at times out-performed the official NHC forecast, a feat that is tough to do. NOAA's HWRF model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast for 2-day and 3-day forecasts, while the UK Met Office's forecast did slightly better than NHC's 4-day and 5-day forecasts. Once again, the European Center (ECMWF) and GFS models excellent performers, but the GFDL model, a excellent performer in recent years, had substantially poorer forecasts than the other four models. The Canadian CMC model and simple BAMM model had accuracies comparable to the GFDL model. The European Center model and GFS models were virtually tied as the best performing models when averaged over the three-year period 2012 - 2014.