ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[ronjon]

King Euro: I SAID out to sea...did I stutter?

GFS: We shall see..KE...we shall see

Farther West but still this is a wild scenario...loving the drama...

I agree. Very Interesting

Umm..if you're in Virginia Beach your probably NOT!

[Weatherwatcher98]

King Euro: I SAID out to sea...did I stutter?

GFS: We shall see..KE...we shall see

Farther West but still this is a wild scenario...loving the drama...

On a side note Pressure in Miami is 29.79????

[Aric Dunn]

EX IDA is really throwing the wrench in some good model agreement. EURO is really keying in on ex IDA and that is really pushing this out to sea. If the EURO ENS are west again today, I still say the OP is on limited crack..lol

yeah thats odd too.. but its still pushing that cut off low/trough way ese essentially blocking any northerly motion towards the coast. it literally has the low sitting over SC which means it cant go that way..

[JtSmarts]

I miss well-behaved storms like Gustav 08 whose track was set in stone 5 days out lol.

[tolakram]

[wxmann_91]

For the record, in terms of track, the Euro bests the GFS 99% of the time, even if the other models are in GFS's camp and the Euro is an outlier. This is just something I've noticed in years of tracking. For that reason I have to side with the Euro recurve scenario for now.

[gatorcane]

A classic ECMWF vs GFS and the rest of the models. Should the ECMWF out to sea scenario for US happen, huge win for that model and more criticism of the GFS will happen during the offseason

[Weatherwatcher98]

King Euro: I SAID out to sea...did I stutter?

GFS: We shall see..KE...we shall see

Farther West but still this is a wild scenario...loving the drama...

I agree. Very Interesting

Umm..if you're in Virginia Beach your probably NOT!

even the other models are south of there now aren't they??

[Steve]

EX IDA is really throwing the wrench in some good model agreement. EURO is really keying in on ex IDA and that is really pushing this out to sea. If the EURO ENS are west again today, I still say the OP is on limited crack..lol

Yeah Delta. Let us know what the ensembles do once you have had a chance to review. If I remember the last couple of days (which I was only casually following at that time) the Euro was the furthest SW dive initially, and certainly the NHC track was more a blend of other models. However, the system has come farther south than prior NHC tracks, and it's certainly farther south than most of the models had thought. So at least some credence has to go to the ECMWF regardless of whether it gets the out to sea scenario right as that's later in the forecast track. Maybe it's onto something. Maybe it isn't.

[SunnyThoughts]

What if 48 hours from now, we STILL have no consensus..what a nightmare for the NHC. Those guys and gals are certainly going to earn their pay the next few days, don't envy them one bit.

[windnrain]

Guys - I have access to a Euro ensemble, I cannot post it, where half of the members send it into VA. The rest are sending it out to sea on the path that you see here. Does anyone else have access to them so they can confirm what I am saying? It's an experimental model so posting it is strictly prohibited.

[Steve]

For the record, in terms of track, the Euro bests the GFS 99% of the time, even if the other models are in GFS's camp and the Euro is an outlier. This is just something I've noticed in years of tracking. For that reason I have to side with the Euro recurve scenario for now.

While I'd generally agree, no way is it anywhere near 99%.

[Aric Dunn]

A classic ECMWF vs GFS and the rest of the models. Should the ECMWF out to sea scenario for US happen, huge win for that model and more criticism of the GFS will happen during the offseason

though remember the euro originally had it coming into the mid atlantic it only switched 3 runs ago..

[wxmann_91]

For the record, in terms of track, the Euro bests the GFS 99% of the time, even if the other models are in GFS's camp and the Euro is an outlier. This is just something I've noticed in years of tracking. For that reason I have to side with the Euro recurve scenario for now.

While I'd generally agree, no way is it anywhere near 99%.

I dunno, the only time I saw the GFS score the coup was with Debby a few years ago. I honestly can't remember any other instance (again, track wise... not intensity wise).

[fox13weather]

For the record, in terms of track, the Euro bests the GFS 99% of the time, even if the other models are in GFS's camp and the Euro is an outlier. This is just something I've noticed in years of tracking. For that reason I have to side with the Euro recurve scenario for now.

ya ..but Euro has not handled tropics very well this year ...lots of eyebrow raising at some of the intermediate forecasts...plus GFS updated in January...much better model now than during Sandy

[Hammy]

For the record, in terms of track, the Euro bests the GFS 99% of the time, even if the other models are in GFS's camp and the Euro is an outlier. This is just something I've noticed in years of tracking. For that reason I have to side with the Euro recurve scenario for now.

I think this year is that 1%, the model has done worse than any of them this year, and with developed systems has had a fairly noticable right bias.

It also doesn't seem to be taking it to Cat 3 any longer> using a reduction, the 850mb winds indicate no more than high-end Cat 2.

[cycloneye]

For the Euro huggers.

Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher · 12m12 minutes ago  New Jersey, USA
The Euro-hugging will be unstoppable if it's actually right. If not, a major defeat. Outlines the uncertainty still involved in fcast tho.

[tolakram]

[Steve]

I hear you. Over the years I've been following it (probably back to the late 90's), it's tended to have a Western bias. GFS in my opinion is better than when it had it's eastern bias problems in past years, but this year has been tough all the way around. Guys like Aric will be the ones looking at the physics after the season to see what was mishandled. There were other systems like Charley where I'm pretty sure the ECMWF liked a weaker, Texas solution up until it hooked up with the landfall interaction south of Tampa. I don't have anything but anecdotal data, but I would bet it's probably in the 75-80% range which is still significant.

[tolakram]

I think the one positive is that we should know soon if the euro has the right idea with the far south track.