ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[ronjon]

Awaiting 12z Euro.....

[xironman]

Not sure I am buying that run

Stupid question, but why? Is there a reason? The model seemed to follow the pattern perfectly.

[Rail Dawg]

Awaiting 12z Euro.....

What is the acronym for the Euro on the charts?

Thanks.

[PTrackerLA]

4 runs in a row of a major hurricane landfall on the GFS. In my opinion, the chances of Joaquin missing the US continues to decrease...

[Evil Jeremy]

Awaiting 12z Euro.....

What is the acronym for the Euro on the charts?

Thanks.

The technical term for the Euro is ECMWF, but what charts are you talking about? the ECMWF doesn't appear on spaghetti model plots.

[Alyono]

UKMET is now just south of Hatteras

[Weatherwatcher98]

Not sure I am buying that run

Stupid question, but why? Is there a reason? The model seemed to follow the pattern perfectly.

Just looked like it wanted to pull it in loop it and then kick it out to sea again. Can't explain why but it just looked far fetched.

[Rail Dawg]

The technical term for the Euro is ECMWF, but what charts are you talking about? the ECMWF doesn't appear on spaghetti model plots.

Ah thanks. My dad is the pro met but he's out of town.

What's the link to see the ECMWF?

Thanks!

[ronjon]

UKMET is now just south of Hatteras

What do u think now Alyono on track. Wxman is outer banks to Virginia beach.

[Alyono]

The technical term for the Euro is ECMWF, but what charts are you talking about? the ECMWF doesn't appear on spaghetti model plots.

Ah thanks. My dad is the pro met but he's out of town.

What's the link to see the ECMWF?

Thanks!

to get the full EC, you need to fork over more than 100K

[TheProfessor]

The technical term for the Euro is ECMWF, but what charts are you talking about? the ECMWF doesn't appear on spaghetti model plots.

Ah thanks. My dad is the pro met but he's out of town.

What's the link to see the ECMWF?

Thanks!

The ECMWF is mostly accessible through paid subscription on sites, but you can get a basic version on tropicaltidbits,com

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 17m17 minutes ago  Pennsylvania, USA
As far as modeling, this will be a major victory for the US model if ECMWF backs down. Has been a rare occurrence in past( big picture)

[AutoPenalti]

The technical term for the Euro is ECMWF, but what charts are you talking about? the ECMWF doesn't appear on spaghetti model plots.

Ah thanks. My dad is the pro met but he's out of town.

What's the link to see the ECMWF?

Thanks!

to get the full EC, you need to fork over more than 100K

100k?!? Jesus, if it were with expertise in programing, I would have created my own ensemble then.

Oh well, tropicaltibits is good enough.

[Evil Jeremy]

Oh well, tropicaltibits is good enough.

TropicalTidbits is great. Over the years it has evolved into almost a one-stop-shop for hurricane tracking.

[TheProfessor]

The 12z HWRF has Joaquin strengthening into a 952 mb storm in 12 hours so far.

Edit: It drops it from 971 to 952 in a 9 hour time frame witch would meet RI requirements.

[T'Bonz]

100k?!? Jesus, if it were with expertise in programing, I would have created my own ensemble then.

Oh well, tropical tidbits is good enough.

Ridiculous that the most accurate model is not available unless one pays big money. It's not even on the NHC grouping.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 17m17 minutes ago  Pennsylvania, USA
As far as modeling, this will be a major victory for the US model if ECMWF backs down. Has been a rare occurrence in past( big picture)

When does the new euro run?

[RL3AO]

I think $100,000 was generous. Last I heard was 220k. Thats why model sites like accuweather and wxbell exist so they can spread out the cost with subscriptions.

[LarryWx]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 17m17 minutes ago  Pennsylvania, USA
As far as modeling, this will be a major victory for the US model if ECMWF backs down. Has been a rare occurrence in past( big picture)

When does the new euro run?

12Z Euro 1:50 -3 PM EDT

[LarryWx]

The GFS' very heavy rains have moved further SW with each of the last runs. Now Charleston all of the way down to Tybee all get walloped with 8" on the 12Z! The key in my mind is how much further south Joaquin is going to move over the next two days vs model consensus? When will model consensus finally catch up to reality?