ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[neospaceblue]

I'm in SE Virginia and I'm worried about this. The models were showing a direct hit yesterday and now they're mostly showing a northeast North Carolina landfall which is still really close. I'm worried about this being worse than Isabel (which was the worst hurricane in this area in recent memory). Does anyone actually believe that this could make landfall in this region as a Cat 3 or 4?

[alienstorm]

We have the eye showing on the latest visible.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I'm in SE Virginia and I'm worried about this. The models were showing a direct hit yesterday and now they're mostly showing a northeast North Carolina landfall which is still really close. I'm worried about this being worse than Isabel (which was the worst hurricane in this area in recent memory). Does anyone actually believe that this could make landfall in this region as a Cat 3 or 4?

Hoping the euro is right and it does not make landfall at all but the NHC said it could Strengthen More than expected in their 11 am Discussion so it's anyone's guess at this point.

[chaser1]

Furthest south of last 8 NHC tracks in degrees north:

27.5
26.7
26.6
26.0
24.8
24.8
24.7
24.1

So, are the southward adjustments likely over or are there likely going to be more to come?

Interesting huh?? I'm guessing further southward adjustments won't occur, but that is not to say it could'nt happen. More concerning to me would be adjustments further to the west, thus heightening the risk that a more delayed (EURO) "off-shore" solution won't likely come to fruition. I'm guessing a slightly faster westward motion might suggest that we'll see the EURO to trend more westward and in alignment with the more westward tracking models.

[1900hurricane]

Structurally looking very sound.

[AutoPenalti]

We have the eye showing on the latest visible.

I still don't see it. Is it pin-hole sized?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Furthest south of last 8 NHC tracks in degrees north:

27.5
26.7
26.6
26.0
24.8
24.8
24.7
24.1

So, are the southward adjustments likely over or are there likely going to be more to come?

Thanks LarryWX,

was not really concerned with it taking the WSW movement. But now I am starting to get a little question as well.

[cycloneye]

No rest.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 301532
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 30 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z OCTOBER 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-127

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE JOAQUIN
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75           FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 01/1130Z,1730Z               A. 02/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0711A JOAQUIN          B. NOAA9 0811A JOAQUIN
       C. 01/0730Z                     C. 01/1730Z
       D. 24.1N 73.2W                  D. NA
       E. 01/1100Z TO 01/1700Z         E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT              F. 41,000 TO 45,000FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72         FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
       A. 01/2330Z,02/0530Z            A. 02/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0911A JOAQUIN          B. NOAA9 1011A JOAQUIN
       C. 01/1930Z                     C. 02/0530Z
       D. 24.4N 74.4W                  D. NA
       E. 01/2300Z TO 02/0500Z         E. NA 
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT              F. 41,000 TO 45,000FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 73
       A. 02/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 1111A JOAQUIN
       C. 02/0730Z
       D. 25.3N 74.5W
       E. 02/1100Z TO 01/1700Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
       G-IV MISSIONS DEPARTING AT 02/1730Z AND 03/0530Z.
    3. REMARKS: FLIGHT ONE ABOVE WAS PREVIOUSLY LISTED ON TCPOD
       15-126 AS A SINGLE FIX MISSION. A FIX FOR 01/0530Z HAS
       ALSO BEEN ADDED TO THE 30/2330Z MISSION.


[Bocadude85]

We have the eye showing on the latest visible.

I still don't see it. Is it pin-hole sized?

Look at 24.7N and 72.8W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

[AutoPenalti]

This is literally steam-rolling to the WSW now. It's insane.

[wxman57]

The inclusion of the "Key Points" is eye-opening. Not the points themselves, but the fact they are needed since there is so much to clarify shows the difficult position the NHC is in right now, unable to commit to a specific forecast due to to many variables, but still needing to keep everyone up to date on all possible solutions.

This part of their Key Messages caught my attention:

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday evening.

That's what I thought they were doing - slowing down the track to avoid moving Joaquin into the coast until their confidence is higher. I wish I had that option for our clients. Looks like the 48 hour point before TS impact will come around noon on Friday. Yesterday morning, I wanted to stop the track at 72 hrs.

I have the center reaching the Outer Banks of NC around 1pm Sunday and moving right over Virginia Beach by mid afternoon. Cat 2 at landfall. Surge of 6-9 feet into Chesapeake Bay on that track.

[emeraldislenc]

The discussion really got my attention. I think we need to watch it carefully. I know I am going to fill up my car with gas later this afternoon. I thinkthe NHC did an excellent job in making the KEY POINTS!

[Evil Jeremy]

Anyone else reminded of Hanna (2008) and her continued SW adjustments in this region? For two days, despite being forecast to move west, maybe WNW, she kept on having to be re-positioned south, dropping three full degrees more than forecast in a two day span. Not saying that's whats happening here, just food for thought.

[TheProfessor]

Definitely looks like an eye has formed in the last 2 frames

[ronjon]

The inclusion of the "Key Points" is eye-opening. Not the points themselves, but the fact they are needed since there is so much to clarify shows the difficult position the NHC is in right now, unable to commit to a specific forecast due to to many variables, but still needing to keep everyone up to date on all possible solutions.

This part of their Key Messages caught my attention:

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday evening.

That's what I thought they were doing - slowing down the track to avoid moving Joaquin into the coast until their confidence is higher. I wish I had that option for our clients. Looks like the 48 hour point before TS impact will come around noon on Friday. Yesterday morning, I wanted to stop the track at 72 hrs.

I have the center reaching the Outer Banks of NC around 1pm Sunday and moving right over Virginia Beach by mid afternoon. Cat 2 at landfall. Surge of 6-9 feet into Chesapeake Bay on that track.

Wow Wxman that would be a destructive storm for that part of the world. Yeah was thinking of you and private METS yesterday. You don't have the luxury of splitting a forecast down the middle and slowly adjusting through time like NHC.

[TheProfessor]

And this storm most likely won't won't hit Florida, but if I were a Floridan I would still be keeping a very close eye on it.

[arlwx]

[quote="1900hurricane"]Structurally looking very sound.

[img]http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQKWt2OVAAAjcTX.jpg[/img][/quote]

AARGH! It's sticking its tongue out at us!

Seriously. I am Not Pleased because someone was going to drive down from NJ to the mid-Atlantic at the weekend and the visit may have to be deferred.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Especially seeing how much rain has fallen and is continuing to fall Now up that way

[cfltrib]

Although conditions this week seem to indicate a turn to the north before getting deep into the Bahamas, my old novice mind remembers Betsy in 1965, and Andrew in 1996 were both expected to turn to the north from approximately the same area.

[xironman]

Anyone else reminded of Hanna (2008) and her continued SW adjustments in this region? For two days, despite being forecast to move west, maybe WNW, she kept on having to be re-positioned south, dropping three full degrees more than forecast in a two day span. Not saying that's whats happening here, just food for thought.

I thought Izzy when looking at him and his position