ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Interesting, the remnants of 99L just off of Jacksonville is moving south. Kind of surprised it is not moving ne.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-80&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

What could that mean?

Seems to me that such a motion of 99L, would kind of indicate that perhaps some negative tilted axis trough were just to that feature's north, with ridging building in from the west and below that point. I'm not gonna immediately assume that we suddenly have a S.E. Conus high bridging with the mid level high just north of Joaquin because that may well be a very transitory reflection of what may be occurring at the moment. Plus, that doesn't necessarily account for a new larger cut-off low to develop and deepen as has been forecast by all the models. Nonetheless, it is curious and one starts to wonder if this large cut-off will truly develop as forecast, or perhaps develop at a point further west or north.

[TheStormExpert]

11am Advisory Track.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

It feels a bit strange to be here in S. FLA Watching what is becoming a very strong hurricane to our south east. Moving WSW to west, knowing for once we are not the most likely point of land fall.
Anytime you have a storm in this position to Florida we tend to get a little uneasy.

[gatorcane]

That is the longest NHC discussion I have ever seen

[xironman]

Never seen this one before

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.

3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast.

[Weatherwatcher98]

That is the longest NHC discussion I have ever seen

And the Most Uncertain

[ronjon]

That is the longest NHC discussion I have ever seen

Never seen them add key points too! Number 2 is especially ominous.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.

3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast.

[LarryWx]

The 11 AM NHC track gets it to as far south as 24.1 N vs the 24.7 of the 5 AM advisory. How much more southward adjustment will end up being needed? Will that finally cover it?

[Evil Jeremy]

The inclusion of the "Key Points" is eye-opening. Not the points themselves, but the fact they are needed since there is so much to clarify shows the difficult position the NHC is in right now, unable to commit to a specific forecast due to to many variables, but still needing to keep everyone up to date on all possible solutions.

[deltadog03]

Funny thing is, ex- Ida (right?) is providing an avenue for this to escape. Thats what the EURO says. My guess is the OP runs are way to far east as the ENS are back further WEST. I still think the deep upper trof over the SE (that comes in and digs in) will help pull this west like most models are saying. I see how the EURO OP could happen, but don't think its right as of now. I think people in NC through Southern NE better start really paying attention to this. Not to scare people, but that nice upper outflow pattern it gets into by the weekend could make this sucker really take off. Just my 2cents for now.

[HurricaneBelle]

The inclusion of the "Key Points" is eye-opening. Not the points themselves, but the fact they are needed since there is so much to clarify shows the difficult position the NHC is in right now, unable to commit to a specific forecast due to to many variables, but still needing to keep everyone up to date on all possible solutions.

This is welcome, and apparently one of the lessons learned from Sandy.

[ronjon]

The inclusion of the "Key Points" is eye-opening. Not the points themselves, but the fact they are needed since there is so much to clarify shows the difficult position the NHC is in right now, unable to commit to a specific forecast due to to many variables, but still needing to keep everyone up to date on all possible solutions.

Yeah hopefully the G-IV sampling and special sonde data from the US Eastern seaboard alluded to in the dicsussion will give us consensus over the next 12-24 hours on the track.

[Bizzles]

Did that forecast discussion make anyone else that lives btw NC and NJ feel uneasy?

[chaser1]

It feels a bit strange to be here in S. FLA Watching what is becoming a very strong hurricane to our south east. Moving WSW to west, knowing for once we are not the most likely point of land fall.
Anytime you have a storm in this position to Florida we tend to get a little uneasy.

I'm in Central Florida now but having lived in Miami when Andrew hit, I totally concur. I'd be quite uncomfortable to see continued westward (or WSW) motion at a speed faster than the near term forecast calls for. That would be an eye opening concern to the Florida coastline, albeit ultimately increase the likelihood of risk to the Carolina's in my opinion. Do I think Joaquin will actually hit Florida? No. However, experience has already proven the unexpected can occur and until its past 30N, then I wouldn't let me guard down. As I see it, any potential fly in the ointment would involve events to unfold (faster forward motion or faster/rapid intensification) quicker that forecast

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting.

@philklotzbach: Joaquin's current pressure of 971 mb is the lowest of any hurricane in the Atlantic this year. http://t.co/2siXhZXvSG

[Alyono]

the G-IV has already flown 2 flights. The sondes have been going into the models

[xironman]

The inclusion of the "Key Points" is eye-opening. Not the points themselves, but the fact they are needed since there is so much to clarify shows the difficult position the NHC is in right now, unable to commit to a specific forecast due to to many variables, but still needing to keep everyone up to date on all possible solutions.

This is welcome, and apparently one of the lessons learned from Sandy.

Could go back to Katrina as well. The Tidewater is a very vulnerable area, so I am sure they want to give "hey look here" as much as possible without getting into the hype.

[Sanibel]

Even in the worst season a system can find marginal favorability and power itself up.

[LarryWx]

Furthest south of last 8 NHC tracks in degrees north:

27.5
26.7
26.6
26.0
24.8
24.8
24.7
24.1

So, are the southward adjustments likely over or are there likely going to be more to come?

[AutoPenalti]

The 11 AM NHC track gets it to as far south as 24.1 N vs the 24.7 of the 5 AM advisory. How much more southward adjustment will end up being needed? Will that finally cover it?

Well, the more south it goes, the more they would need to adjust the latitude to the south. No?