ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[tolakram]

I warned you in a PM, I'll say it here as well. Do not make definitive statements or predictions without using a disclaimer. These are S2K rules and are most important when storms are approaching the US.

[ronjon]

Florida's not in the cards (PRO METS can chime in) - big ole 500 mb trough going to steer this thing away.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[LarryWx]

I'm not sure all posts in here agree with this, but I see a westward shift to near the NC coast of the mean SLP for the 0Z Euro ensemble vs the 12Z Euro ensemble. Also, although it still misses the US by a wide margin and is similar to the prior run through 96 hours, the 0Z Euro operational is well over 100 miles WSW of the 12Z Euro as it gets past Bermuda and doesn't give Bermuda the nearly direct hit this time. Is this indicative of a further trend westward in future Euro runs that its 0Z ensemble mean may be suggesting?
One thing to note, regardless, is that the recon position was already only 0.1 degrees north of the 5AM NHC progged furthest south position and is SSE of the 5am NHC track. What model does that favor, if any?

[ronjon]

Animated version of 06z HWRF. weakens to 945 mb at landfall - gets down to 921 mb over the S Atlantic.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015093006-joaquin11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[TheStormExpert]

12z Model Guidance.

12z Track Guidance



12z Intensity Guidance

[CrazyC83]

What happens if Joaquin digs too far south and misses the trough?

[Bocadude85]

What happens if Joaquin digs too far south and misses the trough?

I would think he would have to drop down to the Cuban coast in order to miss the trough.

[LarryWx]

Note the far offshore US outlier track that is this BAMD, which best reflects a deeper storm. Is there any chance it is onto something or is it likely in lala land?

[Siker]

:uarrow: Note the far offshore US outlier track that is this BAMD, which best reflects a deeper storm. Is there any chance it is onto something or is it likely in lala land?

I mean, it's not impossible but it's not like the western camp shows a weaker storm. GFS, GFDL, HWRF all bomb this out quickly.

[CrazyC83]

Are weaker storms or stronger storms more prone to troughs changing the course? I always thought stronger storms are more likely to hit upper-level troughs, while weaker storms can slide underneath or ignore them.

[xironman]

:uarrow: Note the far offshore US outlier track that is this BAMD, which best reflects a deeper storm. Is there any chance it is onto something or is it likely in lala land?

BAMs are useless north of 30 degrees, so cut it off there. They don't take into account the large scale synoptic pattern of the mid-latitudes. They are models for the deep tropics, and Joaquin is no longer there.

[deltadog03]

Funny thing is, ex- Ida (right?) is providing an avenue for this to escape. Thats what the EURO says. My guess is the OP runs are way to far east as the ENS are back further WEST. I still think the deep upper trof over the SE (that comes in and digs in) will help pull this west like most models are saying. I see how the EURO OP could happen, but don't think its right as of now. I think people in NC through Southern NE better start really paying attention to this. Not to scare people, but that nice upper outflow pattern it gets into by the weekend could make this sucker really take off. Just my 2cents for now.

[ronjon]

The NHC official track most closely matches 00z UKMET.

[stormlover2013]

lets hope GFS new run shoes fish storm lets just hope

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS initialized ~50 miles south of 6Z GFS and is ~50 miles south of 6Z at hour 24 and hour 36 as well as for hour 48.

[Bocadude85]

12Z GFS initialized ~50 miles south of 6Z GFS and is ~50 miles south of 6Z at hour 24 and hour 36.

Yea its showing a direct hit on the Central Bahamas now.

[stormlover2013]

man this is to close to Florida comfort no doubt

[Bocadude85]

GFS is Southwest of the 6z at 42 hours. The central Bahamas are taking a pounding on this run.

[LarryWx]

In addition to 12Z GFS positions little further south and east, the SE upper low is a little further south. So, my early guess is for landfall a little further south in NC on 12Z GFS vs 6Z GFS

[BobHarlem]

GFS is Southwest of the 6z at 42 hours. The central Bahamas are taking a pounding on this run.

Yeah it rolls right up the length of Cat island.