ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#861 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:42 am

SW quad is most intense part of the cane. makes sense given the motion

#862 Postby **Extratropical94** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:42 am

emeraldislenc · #863 Postby **emeraldislenc** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:48 am

What are the thoughts of a more west track at 11 am?

#864 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:52 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 301246
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 36 20150930
123730 2421N 07248W 6957 03063 9948 +083 +063 323054 062 047 018 00
123800 2420N 07249W 6976 03044 9955 +081 +067 317051 053 045 019 03
123830 2419N 07250W 6964 03062 9954 +085 +064 313051 053 041 014 03
123900 2417N 07252W 6961 03068 9964 +081 +058 316052 053 042 012 00
123930 2416N 07253W 6972 03061 9963 +087 +049 315050 052 045 006 00
124000 2415N 07254W 6960 03078 9970 +083 +053 314051 053 045 015 03
124030 2414N 07256W 6967 03072 9979 +077 +062 306055 056 037 031 00
124100 2413N 07257W 6949 03091 9991 +069 +068 300052 053 038 023 00
124130 2411N 07258W 6954 03094 9998 +069 +065 301052 052 035 016 00
124200 2410N 07259W 6969 03076 0002 +066 +047 305053 054 035 010 00
124230 2409N 07301W 6962 03090 9992 +078 +042 306054 054 039 006 00
124300 2408N 07302W 6963 03089 9981 +089 +042 310052 054 038 004 00
124330 2407N 07303W 6963 03093 9980 +093 +039 310052 053 037 003 00
124400 2406N 07305W 6963 03095 9982 +094 +040 314052 053 035 003 00
124430 2404N 07306W 6965 03095 9989 +090 +044 313050 051 035 003 00
124500 2403N 07307W 6966 03095 9989 +090 +045 311049 050 034 002 00
124530 2402N 07309W 6962 03101 9993 +090 +043 313049 050 033 002 00
124600 2401N 07310W 6965 03098 9994 +090 +044 313050 050 030 002 00
124630 2359N 07311W 6967 03097 9996 +089 +043 313052 053 032 001 00
124700 2358N 07313W 6965 03102 9999 +090 +036 312053 053 033 002 00
$$
;

#865 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:59 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 301247
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 30/12:26:30Z
B. 24 deg 50 min N
072 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2859 m
D. 66 kt
E. 042 deg 21 nm
F. 117 deg 74 kt
G. 043 deg 25 nm
H. 972 mb
I. 11 C / 3052 m
J. 16 C / 3052 m
K. 4 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C48
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
P. AF300 0311A JOAQUIN OB 17
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 83 KT 225 / 18 NM 12:31:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 065 / 9 KT
;

#866 Postby **tgenius** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:01 am

Funny enough that's the name of my son! appears to not be coming this way thankfully.

#867 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:02 am

Based on Recon and considering some undersampling, I'd go 75 knots at the advisory.

tropicwatch · #868 Postby **tropicwatch** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:03 am

tgenius wrote:Funny enough that's the name of my son! appears to not be coming this way thankfully.

Its only about 500miles ese of Miami currently.

#869 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:05 am

Keep in mind folks as an FYI when converting model pressures to winds, a storm at this latitude is gonna have lower pressures than its wind field suggests. Pretty much a WPAC P-W relationship here.

Bizzles · #870 Postby **Bizzles** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:10 am

I guess having the track pointed directly at me at this point is a good thing, 0% the track doesn't change in 6 days lol :lol:

NotoSans · #871 Postby **NotoSans** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:21 am

warm spot popping out on both VIS and BD imagery

summersquall · #872 Postby **summersquall** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:36 am

AutoPenalti · #873 Postby **AutoPenalti** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:40 am

My eyes are telling me that it's finally moving W, instead of SW. That or it's probably an illusion.

tropicwatch · #874 Postby **tropicwatch** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:43 am

Well if it gets a well defined eye, direction of travel should be easier to see.

emeraldislenc · #875 Postby **emeraldislenc** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:43 am

It is very impressive looking storm!

#876 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:44 am

AutoPenalti wrote:My eyes are telling me that it's finally moving W, instead of SW. That or it's probably an illusion.

Maybe, but that may be a W wobble in an otherwise still WSW or SW track. Tricky.

alienstorm · #877 Postby **alienstorm** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:49 am

This is reminding me of Andrew, not that it is heading toward SoFL but how quickly it is starting to wrap up and develop. However, one item that sort of is a concern is that as these storms grow and become stronger they tend to create their own enviroment and one of the known facts is that they pump the Highs that may eventually steer them.

tropicwatch · #878 Postby **tropicwatch** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:04 am

Interesting, the remnants of 99L just off of Jacksonville is moving south. Kind of surprised it is not moving ne.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-80&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

AutoPenalti · #879 Postby **AutoPenalti** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:10 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:Interesting, the remnants of 99L just off of Jacksonville is moving south. Kind of surprised it is not moving ne.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-80&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

What could that mean?

#880 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:11 am

Convection still on the increase, outflow improving on the north side.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

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