ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#841 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:02 am

Recon has turned into the NE quad. We shall have our answer in about 25mins or less...
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re:

#842 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:03 am

gatorcane wrote:Given how quickly he is deepening, can he start pumping up the ridge sooner than we thought?

Sorry for the dumb question again but what does this mean? Couldn't find it in the acronym thread. :lol:
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3385
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#843 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:04 am

0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#844 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:06 am

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

caneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:44 am
Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl

#845 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:07 am

With this change models even further left?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#846 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:07 am

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re:

#847 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:08 am

gatorcane wrote:Given how quickly he is deepening, can he start pumping up the ridge sooner than we thought?


That is the huge wild card among all the other variables gatorcane. I have seen intense tropical cyclones in the past like Joaquin create their own environment. Although it is probably not likely to happen, I will say as crazy as this season has been, I would not be shocked at all if the ridge gets stronger a bit to throw even more of a monkey wrench into the forecast. I certainly would not totally discount this possibility.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1046
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Southport NC

#848 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:10 am

Looking briefly this morning at the synoptic and comparing to GFS, Euro, and HWRF, that trough digging now into N Texas looks to be a key to any potential US landfall. Particularly NC outer banks or up into the Mid Atlantic. Last night I was on the fence since with a stall, there's low confidence in the track, but this morning with the loss of latitude and the NHC cone looking a huge good-n- plenty candy....I'm bit more concerned. Haiti looks like a big problem setting up near term. East coast US looks to be in for some flooding additional flooding.

forgot to post link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
Last edited by BensonTCwatcher on Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hugo '89, (Typhoons 1990 - Abe, Becky Dot, Ed, Flo, Gene, Hattie) Bertha 96, Fran 96, Bonnie, 98, Floyd '99 Isabel '03, Matthew '16 Florence '18

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#849 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:10 am

I am trying to decide how to eat my crow, which way is the best way to prepare it after saying a few weeks ago that the season was over :)
BTW, I am a Chef for a living.
0 likes   

seahawkjd
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 632
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:12 pm
Location: Morehead City, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#850 Postby seahawkjd » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:14 am

How big is this supposed to get as far as size of quadrants?
0 likes   
Gloria, Hugo, Emily, Bertha, Bonnie, Dennis (twice), Fran, Floyd, Isabel, Irene, Arthur, Matthew, Florence, Dorian (and many tropical storms and nor'easters).

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#851 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:15 am

If you left the Eastern Florida Cruise Line Ports last Saturday for a 7 day Eastern Carib. Cruise your trip back beginning Friday is going to Rock and Roll!!
0 likes   

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re:

#852 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:15 am

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Looking briefly this morning at the synoptic and comparing to GFS, Euro, and HWRF, that trough digging now into N Texas looks to be a key to any potential US landfall. Particularly NC outer banks or up into the Mid Atlantic. Last night I was on the fence since with a stall, there's low confidence in the track, but this morning with the loss of latitude and the NHC cone looking a huge good-n- plenty candy....I'm bit more concerned. Haiti looks like a big problem setting up near term. East coast US looks to be in for some flooding additional flooding.

forgot to post link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
ronjon wrote:I'm seeing the biggest difference between the operational runs of the GFS and ECM is the orientation of the 500 mb cutoff low over the SE. GFS has more of a negative tilt from 72-96 hours while ECM does not. I think this is the big difference influencing track.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/eastpac/winds/wg9dlm5-1.GIF According to the pattern downstream That may change??
I noticed that too
Last edited by Weatherwatcher98 on Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

seahawkjd
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 632
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:12 pm
Location: Morehead City, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#853 Postby seahawkjd » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:15 am

NDG wrote:I am trying to decide how to eat my crow, which way is the best way to prepare it after saying a few weeks ago that the season was over :)
BTW, I am a Chef for a living.


How does one best prepare crow? I'm asking for a friend that certainly isn't me.... lol
0 likes   
Gloria, Hugo, Emily, Bertha, Bonnie, Dennis (twice), Fran, Floyd, Isabel, Irene, Arthur, Matthew, Florence, Dorian (and many tropical storms and nor'easters).

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#854 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:17 am

seahawkjd wrote:
NDG wrote:I am trying to decide how to eat my crow, which way is the best way to prepare it after saying a few weeks ago that the season was over :)
BTW, I am a Chef for a living.


How does one best prepare crow? I'm asking for a friend that certainly isn't me.... lol
I always go with Blackened :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: We can all catch some Zeds now

#855 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:19 am

tatertawt24 wrote:
Cyclenall wrote: Ok, there it is. Media frenzy in 3...2...1...


I have the image in my head of the media unlocking a demonic beast that hasn't seen light in three years, letting out a formidable roar so its presence is known far and wide, before commencing its attack on Twitter.



Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#856 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:26 am

seahawkjd wrote:How big is this supposed to get as far as size of quadrants?


Much smaller than Sandy, as it won't be transitioning to an extratropical storm. More like an average-sized hurricane with tropical storm-force winds extending out to about 150 miles and hurricane-force winds out to 35-45 miles. Winds may be much stronger than Sandy's at landfall, though.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#857 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:28 am

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#858 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:38 am

No wonder Joaquin is the top trending topic on Twitter in the US. :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#859 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:40 am

May be the start of the fist in the SW Quad...
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#860 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:40 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 301236
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 35 20150930
122730 2446N 07220W 6962 02904 9693 +160 +042 287008 010 014 001 00
122800 2445N 07221W 6964 02901 9694 +160 +044 322014 018 020 002 00
122830 2444N 07223W 6964 02903 9705 +152 +050 338027 030 030 001 00
122900 2442N 07224W 6961 02911 9714 +145 +053 338036 039 040 002 00
122930 2441N 07226W 6965 02911 9737 +131 +051 339052 056 054 005 00
123000 2440N 07227W 6961 02928 9763 +119 +052 337060 062 063 007 00
123030 2438N 07229W 6966 02932 9785 +109 +058 335065 066 068 007 00
123100 2437N 07230W 6961 02952 9808 +101 +067 332069 073 070 019 03
123130 2436N 07232W 6968 02959 9840 +086 +076 322075 083 060 061 00
123200 2434N 07233W 6946 02989 9857 +082 +082 319073 075 061 063 00
123230 2433N 07234W 6967 02982 9886 +070 +064 318074 076 058 044 03
123300 2432N 07236W 6961 03000 9897 +073 +049 319074 076 055 019 03
123330 2431N 07237W 6968 03001 9898 +082 +048 320072 075 053 009 00
123400 2430N 07238W 6965 03016 9906 +084 +051 319070 072 051 008 00
123430 2428N 07240W 6958 03032 9918 +080 +057 319071 072 049 010 00
123500 2427N 07241W 6969 03025 9929 +078 +058 315067 069 045 014 03
123530 2426N 07242W 6962 03041 9938 +077 +059 317065 067 048 011 00
123600 2425N 07244W 6963 03045 9941 +080 +052 316062 064 046 011 03
123630 2423N 07245W 6968 03042 9942 +084 +049 316061 061 044 010 03
123700 2422N 07246W 6960 03057 9934 +094 +052 319061 061 046 013 03
$$
;

83 kt FL, 70 kt SFMR in SW quad. Pressure 969mb.
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests