ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Center dropsonde suggests a SLP of 971 mb (972 mb w/ 11 kt winds). This should be a hurricane unless there is significant mismatch between pressure and winds.
Last edited by NotoSans on Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3468
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
How would it have such low central pressure? If it's a large system I would not be surprised.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- tropicwatch
- Category 5
- Posts: 3385
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
- Location: Panama City Florida
- Contact:

0 likes
Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re:
dexterlabio wrote:How would it have such low central pressure? If it's a large system I would not be surprised.
I think because the ambient pressure is already quite low. A 971 system in a 1000 environment would be the same as a 986 system in a 1015 environment, so Joaquin has a low pressure even though the gradient isn't that steep.
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4030
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Also, it looks like the most recent center fix is SE of the 5 am position. This storm is really losing latitude.
Which isn't pleasing to me one bit, just got word from relatives and friends telling that they are monitoring this because the margin for error is slowing decreasing hour by hour, as of now NHC is giving it one more day before we start seeing that dramatic NE, even though they were expecting to happen yesterday.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
URNT15 KNHC 301116
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 27 20150930
110730 2407N 07115W 6965 03092 9981 +096 +028 223036 036 031 001 00
110800 2406N 07114W 6967 03091 9976 +103 +025 227037 037 034 001 00
110830 2405N 07113W 6970 03091 9979 +101 +020 227037 037 033 002 00
110900 2403N 07111W 6965 03097 9983 +100 +022 231037 037 035 001 00
110930 2402N 07110W 6967 03096 9983 +100 +018 231037 037 036 002 00
111000 2401N 07108W 6968 03097 9981 +104 +020 230036 037 035 001 00
111030 2359N 07107W 6966 03101 9983 +105 +017 228034 035 034 001 00
111100 2358N 07106W 6965 03103 9984 +104 +018 230032 033 033 001 00
111130 2357N 07104W 6971 03097 9990 +100 +019 230032 032 033 001 00
111200 2356N 07103W 6968 03103 9991 +101 +021 229032 033 033 001 00
111230 2354N 07102W 6966 03106 9993 +098 +026 231034 034 030 002 00
111300 2353N 07100W 6966 03106 9998 +094 +035 232034 034 032 001 00
111330 2352N 07059W 6967 03104 0003 +091 +043 233032 033 033 010 03
111400 2351N 07057W 6965 03108 0000 +095 +044 232032 032 035 005 00
111430 2349N 07056W 6966 03109 0002 +094 +038 229030 032 036 003 00
111500 2348N 07055W 6970 03104 0007 +089 +043 224028 031 034 004 00
111530 2347N 07053W 6963 03113 0014 +084 +045 229026 028 035 005 03
111600 2345N 07052W 6970 03107 0019 +082 +041 228025 026 034 005 00
111630 2344N 07051W 6967 03112 0015 +087 +036 221023 025 034 005 00
111700 2343N 07049W 6965 03114 0008 +093 +035 221020 022 033 004 00
$$
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 27 20150930
110730 2407N 07115W 6965 03092 9981 +096 +028 223036 036 031 001 00
110800 2406N 07114W 6967 03091 9976 +103 +025 227037 037 034 001 00
110830 2405N 07113W 6970 03091 9979 +101 +020 227037 037 033 002 00
110900 2403N 07111W 6965 03097 9983 +100 +022 231037 037 035 001 00
110930 2402N 07110W 6967 03096 9983 +100 +018 231037 037 036 002 00
111000 2401N 07108W 6968 03097 9981 +104 +020 230036 037 035 001 00
111030 2359N 07107W 6966 03101 9983 +105 +017 228034 035 034 001 00
111100 2358N 07106W 6965 03103 9984 +104 +018 230032 033 033 001 00
111130 2357N 07104W 6971 03097 9990 +100 +019 230032 032 033 001 00
111200 2356N 07103W 6968 03103 9991 +101 +021 229032 033 033 001 00
111230 2354N 07102W 6966 03106 9993 +098 +026 231034 034 030 002 00
111300 2353N 07100W 6966 03106 9998 +094 +035 232034 034 032 001 00
111330 2352N 07059W 6967 03104 0003 +091 +043 233032 033 033 010 03
111400 2351N 07057W 6965 03108 0000 +095 +044 232032 032 035 005 00
111430 2349N 07056W 6966 03109 0002 +094 +038 229030 032 036 003 00
111500 2348N 07055W 6970 03104 0007 +089 +043 224028 031 034 004 00
111530 2347N 07053W 6963 03113 0014 +084 +045 229026 028 035 005 03
111600 2345N 07052W 6970 03107 0019 +082 +041 228025 026 034 005 00
111630 2344N 07051W 6967 03112 0015 +087 +036 221023 025 034 005 00
111700 2343N 07049W 6965 03114 0008 +093 +035 221020 022 033 004 00
$$
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
000
URNT12 KNHC 301109
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 30/10:48:10Z
B. 24 deg 56 min N
072 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2849 m
D. 58 kt
E. 285 deg 17 nm
F. 021 deg 65 kt
G. 284 deg 15 nm
H. 972 mb
I. 13 C / 3057 m
J. 17 C / 3040 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. OPEN N
M. C48
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
P. AF300 0311A JOAQUIN OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 69 KT 133 / 32 NM 10:56:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 065 / 11 KT
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 286 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
URNT12 KNHC 301109
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 30/10:48:10Z
B. 24 deg 56 min N
072 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2849 m
D. 58 kt
E. 285 deg 17 nm
F. 021 deg 65 kt
G. 284 deg 15 nm
H. 972 mb
I. 13 C / 3057 m
J. 17 C / 3040 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. OPEN N
M. C48
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
P. AF300 0311A JOAQUIN OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 69 KT 133 / 32 NM 10:56:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 065 / 11 KT
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 286 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
0 likes
- tropicwatch
- Category 5
- Posts: 3385
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
- Location: Panama City Florida
- Contact:
VDM
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 11:09Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 10:48:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°56'N 72°08'W (24.9333N 72.1333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,849m (9,347ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 21° at 65kts (From the NNE at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (284°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the north
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 10:56:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 11kts (From the ENE at 13mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the WNW (286°) from the flight level center
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 11:09Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 10:48:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°56'N 72°08'W (24.9333N 72.1333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,849m (9,347ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 21° at 65kts (From the NNE at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (284°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the north
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 10:56:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 11kts (From the ENE at 13mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the WNW (286°) from the flight level center
0 likes
Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1731
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is 969 recon? Whoa. Certainly doesn't look that good. Not good for the Bahamas. Morning hype already Sandy two. (5 am tpc track used).
0 likes
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re:
NDG wrote:I would go with the model that has been the most consistent, the Euro, and usually there is no questioning the Euro within the 4-5 day range on its sypnotic set up.
King Euro could be back, many, including myself, were laughing at it a couple of days ago for strengthening Joaquin as it tracks towards the Bahamas, so far it has verified.
Actually the truth is that 4 or 5 days out on 99, the Euro had 99 going into la.,ms. It wasn't until about 48 hours out that it sniffed out west florida. In the end, at least half of the models had it going into west florida. I would hardly classify that as some type of major success and would certainly not classify it as a mid term 4 to 5 day success. So, in summation the blend worked best.this,is my opinion only. This is from me going back and analyzing the models. If someone has a verification link I'd gladly look at it.
Last edited by caneman on Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:This has to be one of the lowest central pressures I can ever remember for a tropical storm. Recon hasn't found any readings that would support hurricane intensity yet, although they haven't fully sampled the storm.
The 63kt dropsonde is pretty close. But that could just be a gust.
0 likes
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
000
URNT15 KNHC 301126
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 28 20150930
111730 2342N 07048W 6970 03109 0006 +096 +030 229020 021 034 003 00
111800 2340N 07047W 6966 03114 0003 +099 +027 231022 024 032 004 00
111830 2339N 07045W 6964 03118 0001 +101 +022 234022 024 032 001 03
111900 2339N 07043W 6965 03118 0005 +100 +021 224023 024 /// /// 03
111930 2341N 07043W 6967 03112 9998 +103 +023 211023 024 029 003 03
112000 2343N 07043W 6964 03114 9999 +099 +023 223027 029 031 004 00
112030 2345N 07043W 6969 03102 0002 +094 +030 217027 028 033 004 00
112100 2346N 07043W 6968 03107 9994 +100 +029 210025 025 033 004 00
112130 2348N 07043W 6966 03108 9986 +107 +026 217027 028 036 003 00
112200 2350N 07043W 6967 03106 9984 +110 +018 211027 028 035 004 00
112230 2352N 07043W 6968 03104 9986 +107 +019 213026 027 036 003 00
112300 2354N 07043W 6965 03109 9988 +104 +027 209028 028 036 003 00
112330 2356N 07044W 6967 03106 9982 +110 +029 196028 029 036 003 00
112400 2358N 07044W 6965 03108 9985 +108 +028 194025 027 034 003 03
112430 2400N 07044W 6971 03107 0015 +087 +036 189027 030 033 005 00
112500 2402N 07045W 6966 03115 0025 +080 +040 187032 035 035 007 00
112530 2404N 07046W 6965 03119 0007 +097 +044 200032 034 033 003 00
112600 2406N 07047W 6967 03114 0010 +094 +036 205032 032 033 003 00
112630 2407N 07048W 6968 03113 0010 +094 +032 210031 032 035 003 00
112700 2409N 07049W 6964 03117 0004 +097 +035 212031 032 037 003 03
$$
URNT15 KNHC 301126
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 28 20150930
111730 2342N 07048W 6970 03109 0006 +096 +030 229020 021 034 003 00
111800 2340N 07047W 6966 03114 0003 +099 +027 231022 024 032 004 00
111830 2339N 07045W 6964 03118 0001 +101 +022 234022 024 032 001 03
111900 2339N 07043W 6965 03118 0005 +100 +021 224023 024 /// /// 03
111930 2341N 07043W 6967 03112 9998 +103 +023 211023 024 029 003 03
112000 2343N 07043W 6964 03114 9999 +099 +023 223027 029 031 004 00
112030 2345N 07043W 6969 03102 0002 +094 +030 217027 028 033 004 00
112100 2346N 07043W 6968 03107 9994 +100 +029 210025 025 033 004 00
112130 2348N 07043W 6966 03108 9986 +107 +026 217027 028 036 003 00
112200 2350N 07043W 6967 03106 9984 +110 +018 211027 028 035 004 00
112230 2352N 07043W 6968 03104 9986 +107 +019 213026 027 036 003 00
112300 2354N 07043W 6965 03109 9988 +104 +027 209028 028 036 003 00
112330 2356N 07044W 6967 03106 9982 +110 +029 196028 029 036 003 00
112400 2358N 07044W 6965 03108 9985 +108 +028 194025 027 034 003 03
112430 2400N 07044W 6971 03107 0015 +087 +036 189027 030 033 005 00
112500 2402N 07045W 6966 03115 0025 +080 +040 187032 035 035 007 00
112530 2404N 07046W 6965 03119 0007 +097 +044 200032 034 033 003 00
112600 2406N 07047W 6967 03114 0010 +094 +036 205032 032 033 003 00
112630 2407N 07048W 6968 03113 0010 +094 +032 210031 032 035 003 00
112700 2409N 07049W 6964 03117 0004 +097 +035 212031 032 037 003 03
$$
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re: Re:
xironman wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:This has to be one of the lowest central pressures I can ever remember for a tropical storm. Recon hasn't found any readings that would support hurricane intensity yet, although they haven't fully sampled the storm.
The 63kt dropsonde is pretty close. But that could just be a gust.
Good point. It looks like that dropsonde got advected around into the eastern eyewall, where winds may be a bit stronger.
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am
Re: Re:
So It seems Euro Had a Left Bias with 99L. hmmmcaneman wrote:NDG wrote:I would go with the model that has been the most consistent, the Euro, and usually there is no questioning the Euro within the 4-5 day range on its sypnotic set up.
King Euro could be back, many, including myself, were laughing at it a couple of days ago for strengthening Joaquin as it tracks towards the Bahamas, so far it has verified.
Actually the truth is that 4 or 5 days out on 99, the Euro had 99 going into la.,ms. It wasn't until about 48 hours out that it sniffed out west florida. In the end, at least half of the models had it going into west florida. I would hardly classify that as some type of major success and would certainly not classify it as a mid term 4 to 5 day success.

0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1731
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests