ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- Kingarabian
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Re:
bahamaswx wrote:Sure has dipped pretty far SW in the last few hours. Not sure if real motion or just the convection moving/expanding in that direction though.
Latest models showing more of a dip south in the short term. Stay safe!
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
With such a complex pattern I figured there will be more flips.xironman wrote:As the time shortens the flips become less, check out the guidance runs from 12z yesterday to 6z today. You will see how the are bunched. I know this probably belongs in a model thread....
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Getting closer to the center.
URNT15 KNHC 301026
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 22 20150930
101730 2619N 07326W 6966 03111 9997 +103 +019 053035 037 026 001 00
101800 2617N 07325W 6965 03113 9993 +106 +018 051033 034 024 002 00
101830 2616N 07324W 6971 03104 9988 +107 +016 053033 033 024 001 00
101900 2614N 07323W 6966 03110 9983 +110 +014 051035 035 025 001 00
101930 2613N 07322W 6967 03107 9984 +110 +014 049035 036 025 001 00
102000 2611N 07321W 6967 03106 9986 +109 +015 049034 035 026 002 00
102030 2610N 07320W 6966 03106 9985 +107 +017 046032 033 028 002 00
102100 2608N 07319W 6967 03104 9982 +105 +017 044032 032 027 002 00
102130 2607N 07317W 6967 03102 9980 +105 +017 043032 032 026 001 00
102200 2605N 07316W 6969 03099 9984 +105 +017 043033 034 027 001 00
102230 2604N 07315W 6967 03101 9983 +105 +018 042034 034 027 001 00
102300 2602N 07314W 6967 03100 9985 +104 +019 039034 035 026 001 00
102330 2601N 07313W 6967 03100 9984 +103 +018 039036 036 027 001 00
102400 2559N 07312W 6967 03098 9981 +105 +016 037037 037 030 001 00
102430 2558N 07310W 6967 03096 9975 +108 +010 039038 039 028 001 00
102500 2556N 07309W 6967 03095 9972 +109 +009 039039 039 025 002 00
102530 2554N 07308W 6975 03084 9972 +107 +019 039038 039 028 001 00
102600 2553N 07307W 6967 03091 9968 +108 +017 039040 041 029 001 00
102630 2551N 07306W 6966 03090 9962 +111 +015 042041 042 030 001 00
102700 2550N 07305W 6967 03088 9963 +109 +014 040042 043 031 001 00
URNT15 KNHC 301026
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 22 20150930
101730 2619N 07326W 6966 03111 9997 +103 +019 053035 037 026 001 00
101800 2617N 07325W 6965 03113 9993 +106 +018 051033 034 024 002 00
101830 2616N 07324W 6971 03104 9988 +107 +016 053033 033 024 001 00
101900 2614N 07323W 6966 03110 9983 +110 +014 051035 035 025 001 00
101930 2613N 07322W 6967 03107 9984 +110 +014 049035 036 025 001 00
102000 2611N 07321W 6967 03106 9986 +109 +015 049034 035 026 002 00
102030 2610N 07320W 6966 03106 9985 +107 +017 046032 033 028 002 00
102100 2608N 07319W 6967 03104 9982 +105 +017 044032 032 027 002 00
102130 2607N 07317W 6967 03102 9980 +105 +017 043032 032 026 001 00
102200 2605N 07316W 6969 03099 9984 +105 +017 043033 034 027 001 00
102230 2604N 07315W 6967 03101 9983 +105 +018 042034 034 027 001 00
102300 2602N 07314W 6967 03100 9985 +104 +019 039034 035 026 001 00
102330 2601N 07313W 6967 03100 9984 +103 +018 039036 036 027 001 00
102400 2559N 07312W 6967 03098 9981 +105 +016 037037 037 030 001 00
102430 2558N 07310W 6967 03096 9975 +108 +010 039038 039 028 001 00
102500 2556N 07309W 6967 03095 9972 +109 +009 039039 039 025 002 00
102530 2554N 07308W 6975 03084 9972 +107 +019 039038 039 028 001 00
102600 2553N 07307W 6967 03091 9968 +108 +017 039040 041 029 001 00
102630 2551N 07306W 6966 03090 9962 +111 +015 042041 042 030 001 00
102700 2550N 07305W 6967 03088 9963 +109 +014 040042 043 031 001 00
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
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- Daniel
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I would go with the model that has been the most consistent, the Euro, and usually there is no questioning the Euro within the 4-5 day range on its sypnotic set up.
King Euro could be back, many, including myself, were laughing at it a couple of days ago for strengthening Joaquin as it tracks towards the Bahamas, so far it has verified.
King Euro could be back, many, including myself, were laughing at it a couple of days ago for strengthening Joaquin as it tracks towards the Bahamas, so far it has verified.
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URNT15 KNHC 301036
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 23 20150930
102730 2548N 07304W 6967 03088 9967 +106 +013 040042 043 031 002 00
102800 2547N 07303W 6967 03089 9963 +112 +011 039040 042 031 002 00
102830 2545N 07301W 6974 03080 9958 +112 +031 046038 039 031 002 00
102900 2543N 07300W 6961 03094 9958 +110 +034 044038 039 031 002 00
102930 2542N 07259W 6967 03087 9956 +112 +035 039039 040 033 002 00
103000 2540N 07258W 6966 03084 9946 +119 +027 040041 042 033 002 00
103030 2539N 07257W 6970 03077 9944 +117 +033 041042 043 033 002 00
103100 2537N 07256W 6970 03074 9941 +118 +035 039042 043 034 002 00
103130 2536N 07255W 6969 03073 9944 +111 +042 035041 042 035 002 00
103200 2534N 07254W 6966 03076 9943 +113 +037 034043 045 035 004 00
103230 2532N 07253W 6967 03069 9945 +105 +034 035046 046 037 002 00
103300 2531N 07251W 6968 03066 9936 +110 +031 031044 046 037 001 00
103330 2529N 07250W 6963 03069 9935 +109 +032 030043 044 035 003 03
103400 2527N 07249W 6968 03061 9931 +111 +033 030044 044 038 002 00
103430 2526N 07248W 6967 03058 9927 +111 +040 035044 045 040 002 00
103500 2524N 07247W 6967 03055 9919 +111 +046 036046 047 041 002 00
103530 2523N 07246W 6967 03051 9917 +112 +044 036051 052 040 003 00
103600 2521N 07245W 6971 03043 9910 +115 +041 035054 054 039 001 00
103630 2519N 07244W 6965 03045 9899 +120 +040 034055 055 039 001 00
103700 2517N 07242W 6971 03032 9899 +115 +039 031053 055 040 001 00
$$
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 23 20150930
102730 2548N 07304W 6967 03088 9967 +106 +013 040042 043 031 002 00
102800 2547N 07303W 6967 03089 9963 +112 +011 039040 042 031 002 00
102830 2545N 07301W 6974 03080 9958 +112 +031 046038 039 031 002 00
102900 2543N 07300W 6961 03094 9958 +110 +034 044038 039 031 002 00
102930 2542N 07259W 6967 03087 9956 +112 +035 039039 040 033 002 00
103000 2540N 07258W 6966 03084 9946 +119 +027 040041 042 033 002 00
103030 2539N 07257W 6970 03077 9944 +117 +033 041042 043 033 002 00
103100 2537N 07256W 6970 03074 9941 +118 +035 039042 043 034 002 00
103130 2536N 07255W 6969 03073 9944 +111 +042 035041 042 035 002 00
103200 2534N 07254W 6966 03076 9943 +113 +037 034043 045 035 004 00
103230 2532N 07253W 6967 03069 9945 +105 +034 035046 046 037 002 00
103300 2531N 07251W 6968 03066 9936 +110 +031 031044 046 037 001 00
103330 2529N 07250W 6963 03069 9935 +109 +032 030043 044 035 003 03
103400 2527N 07249W 6968 03061 9931 +111 +033 030044 044 038 002 00
103430 2526N 07248W 6967 03058 9927 +111 +040 035044 045 040 002 00
103500 2524N 07247W 6967 03055 9919 +111 +046 036046 047 041 002 00
103530 2523N 07246W 6967 03051 9917 +112 +044 036051 052 040 003 00
103600 2521N 07245W 6971 03043 9910 +115 +041 035054 054 039 001 00
103630 2519N 07244W 6965 03045 9899 +120 +040 034055 055 039 001 00
103700 2517N 07242W 6971 03032 9899 +115 +039 031053 055 040 001 00
$$
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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What the heck?
000
URNT15 KNHC 301046
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 24 20150930
103730 2516N 07241W 6966 03035 9897 +111 +055 033053 054 041 001 00
103800 2514N 07240W 6963 03033 9893 +110 +052 033055 055 042 001 00
103830 2512N 07239W 6967 03024 9897 +101 +065 031057 058 044 002 00
103900 2511N 07238W 6967 03018 9891 +101 +073 030059 060 046 002 00
103930 2509N 07237W 6969 03015 9880 +107 +069 029060 061 048 003 00
104000 2507N 07236W 6956 03021 9873 +104 +077 022057 059 050 004 00
104030 2505N 07235W 6993 02973 9864 +106 +097 017059 061 051 008 03
104100 2504N 07233W 6957 03010 9842 +113 +107 020057 059 054 004 01
104130 2504N 07231W 6969 02985 9819 +129 +105 025058 059 056 003 00
104200 2503N 07230W 6961 02989 9815 +128 +075 023059 063 057 003 00
104230 2502N 07228W 6967 02973 9803 +136 +042 021064 065 058 002 00
104300 2501N 07226W 6963 02967 9789 +139 +035 022063 065 054 002 00
104330 2501N 07224W 6960 02962 9778 +139 +044 019061 063 052 001 00
104400 2500N 07223W 6972 02934 9764 +139 +051 021053 061 049 002 00
104430 2459N 07221W 6961 02937 9747 +142 +062 025049 050 043 002 00
104500 2459N 07219W 6967 02915 9720 +153 +057 005049 051 038 002 00
104530 2458N 07217W 6969 02900 9696 +165 +040 355042 047 030 001 03
104600 2458N 07215W 6966 02893 9690 +161 +031 345029 037 021 001 00
104630 2458N 07213W 6974 02882 9698 +151 +046 349016 021 014 001 00
104700 2458N 07211W 6970 02884 9703 +142 +056 072010 013 008 001 03
$$
000
URNT15 KNHC 301046
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 24 20150930
103730 2516N 07241W 6966 03035 9897 +111 +055 033053 054 041 001 00
103800 2514N 07240W 6963 03033 9893 +110 +052 033055 055 042 001 00
103830 2512N 07239W 6967 03024 9897 +101 +065 031057 058 044 002 00
103900 2511N 07238W 6967 03018 9891 +101 +073 030059 060 046 002 00
103930 2509N 07237W 6969 03015 9880 +107 +069 029060 061 048 003 00
104000 2507N 07236W 6956 03021 9873 +104 +077 022057 059 050 004 00
104030 2505N 07235W 6993 02973 9864 +106 +097 017059 061 051 008 03
104100 2504N 07233W 6957 03010 9842 +113 +107 020057 059 054 004 01
104130 2504N 07231W 6969 02985 9819 +129 +105 025058 059 056 003 00
104200 2503N 07230W 6961 02989 9815 +128 +075 023059 063 057 003 00
104230 2502N 07228W 6967 02973 9803 +136 +042 021064 065 058 002 00
104300 2501N 07226W 6963 02967 9789 +139 +035 022063 065 054 002 00
104330 2501N 07224W 6960 02962 9778 +139 +044 019061 063 052 001 00
104400 2500N 07223W 6972 02934 9764 +139 +051 021053 061 049 002 00
104430 2459N 07221W 6961 02937 9747 +142 +062 025049 050 043 002 00
104500 2459N 07219W 6967 02915 9720 +153 +057 005049 051 038 002 00
104530 2458N 07217W 6969 02900 9696 +165 +040 355042 047 030 001 03
104600 2458N 07215W 6966 02893 9690 +161 +031 345029 037 021 001 00
104630 2458N 07213W 6974 02882 9698 +151 +046 349016 021 014 001 00
104700 2458N 07211W 6970 02884 9703 +142 +056 072010 013 008 001 03
$$
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Needless to say,latest models don't look good. But, I know they we no doubt change on the next run. Up early to spend the day at the Biltmore. Wife never concerns herself with hurricanes. Doesn't have the time according to her. I guess opposites do attract. Check back later. Weird being so far from home with a possible storm affecting the area.
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URNT15 KNHC 301057
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 25 20150930
104730 2457N 07210W 6964 02893 9688 +156 +057 345004 008 010 001 00
104800 2457N 07210W 6964 02893 9685 +161 +049 280003 006 011 001 00
104830 2455N 07207W 6970 02887 9691 +157 +048 236005 007 011 000 00
104900 2453N 07205W 6967 02894 9700 +151 +052 237013 015 010 001 00
104930 2452N 07204W 6970 02894 9708 +147 +054 230018 019 023 000 00
105000 2451N 07203W 6965 02906 9720 +142 +052 227023 024 026 002 00
105030 2449N 07201W 6968 02910 9744 +127 +063 233034 038 033 003 00
105100 2448N 07200W 6964 02922 9750 +126 +074 225036 039 038 003 00
105130 2447N 07158W 6967 02928 9772 +118 +066 230041 042 043 005 00
105200 2446N 07157W 6960 02946 9801 +101 +078 235051 058 050 008 03
105230 2444N 07156W 6969 02952 9822 +094 +085 235057 059 055 021 03
105300 2443N 07154W 6961 02968 9835 +092 +081 237058 060 060 017 03
105330 2442N 07153W 6973 02965 9853 +089 +070 240062 064 061 033 00
105400 2440N 07151W 6969 02979 9867 +089 +088 238064 067 063 026 00
105430 2439N 07150W 6956 03008 9888 +083 +082 234060 066 060 035 00
105500 2438N 07149W 6971 02994 9894 +082 +082 229052 055 057 034 00
105530 2437N 07147W 6981 02991 9911 +077 +077 221061 063 056 034 00
105600 2435N 07146W 6955 03028 9919 +073 +072 222065 066 052 031 00
105630 2434N 07145W 6973 03016 9926 +075 +071 225064 069 052 032 00
105700 2433N 07143W 6967 03028 9936 +073 +072 223061 062 047 026 00
$$
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 25 20150930
104730 2457N 07210W 6964 02893 9688 +156 +057 345004 008 010 001 00
104800 2457N 07210W 6964 02893 9685 +161 +049 280003 006 011 001 00
104830 2455N 07207W 6970 02887 9691 +157 +048 236005 007 011 000 00
104900 2453N 07205W 6967 02894 9700 +151 +052 237013 015 010 001 00
104930 2452N 07204W 6970 02894 9708 +147 +054 230018 019 023 000 00
105000 2451N 07203W 6965 02906 9720 +142 +052 227023 024 026 002 00
105030 2449N 07201W 6968 02910 9744 +127 +063 233034 038 033 003 00
105100 2448N 07200W 6964 02922 9750 +126 +074 225036 039 038 003 00
105130 2447N 07158W 6967 02928 9772 +118 +066 230041 042 043 005 00
105200 2446N 07157W 6960 02946 9801 +101 +078 235051 058 050 008 03
105230 2444N 07156W 6969 02952 9822 +094 +085 235057 059 055 021 03
105300 2443N 07154W 6961 02968 9835 +092 +081 237058 060 060 017 03
105330 2442N 07153W 6973 02965 9853 +089 +070 240062 064 061 033 00
105400 2440N 07151W 6969 02979 9867 +089 +088 238064 067 063 026 00
105430 2439N 07150W 6956 03008 9888 +083 +082 234060 066 060 035 00
105500 2438N 07149W 6971 02994 9894 +082 +082 229052 055 057 034 00
105530 2437N 07147W 6981 02991 9911 +077 +077 221061 063 056 034 00
105600 2435N 07146W 6955 03028 9919 +073 +072 222065 066 052 031 00
105630 2434N 07145W 6973 03016 9926 +075 +071 225064 069 052 032 00
105700 2433N 07143W 6967 03028 9936 +073 +072 223061 062 047 026 00
$$
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Did the Euro and CMC just Switch?
pgoss11 wrote:So strange to see the Euro being the outlier. Hopefully it's right.
The last run shows one of the most wild slingshots ever with Joaquin and then has some baby low forming out of nowhere near Hispaniola. In the Cpac, shows a TC moving right on the Big Island of Hawaii and then sits it right there for maybe a day or so and strengthens it considerably while sitting on the mountain. The Euro is King, but this time I think its just on the powder like with Debby years ago. If you showed me the 00z run of it that shows both the Pacific and Atlantic basins like on FSU site without a label, and was asked to pick what model it was I'd go with CMC.
The media is chatting about Sandy and this one and what the similarities are. Don't see that much coverage yet. A unusual model loop from CNNi had Joaquin sucked into a large low gyre and it spun around like a ball in a washing machine around it


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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
OuterBanker wrote:Needless to say,latest models don't look good. But, I know they we no doubt change on the next run. Up early to spend the day at the Biltmore. Wife never concerns herself with hurricanes. Doesn't have the time according to her. I guess opposites do attract. Check back later. Weird being so far from home with a possible storm affecting the area.
6z GFS is a direct hit on KDH @ 10am Sunday.
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Anyone here just waiting for that random twist of events to happen if this keeps going and isn't getting picked up by the trough?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Extratropical94
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URNT15 KNHC 301106
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 26 20150930
105730 2432N 07142W 6966 03035 9943 +073 +071 218058 062 045 027 03
105800 2431N 07141W 6973 03030 9945 +073 +071 221054 056 041 015 00
105830 2429N 07139W 6977 03030 9957 +071 +070 224053 058 039 013 00
105900 2428N 07138W 6982 03030 9954 +077 +064 223052 055 045 008 00
105930 2427N 07137W 6956 03062 9951 +079 +060 223056 057 045 005 00
110000 2426N 07135W 6971 03049 9947 +088 +060 223056 059 043 007 03
110030 2424N 07134W 6960 03062 9952 +083 +062 229053 057 042 012 03
110100 2423N 07133W 6961 03064 9968 +073 +066 226057 061 039 015 00
110130 2422N 07131W 6966 03062 9977 +067 +064 217056 059 034 009 00
110200 2421N 07130W 6964 03064 9964 +081 +063 217052 055 034 005 00
110230 2420N 07129W 6970 03063 9968 +082 +056 219051 052 038 005 00
110300 2418N 07128W 6975 03062 9967 +089 +046 220049 052 037 006 00
110330 2417N 07126W 6962 03080 9978 +082 +038 222047 048 038 007 00
110400 2416N 07125W 6971 03069 9987 +076 +043 222048 049 037 007 00
110430 2415N 07124W 6963 03081 9980 +083 +053 223048 050 034 006 00
110500 2414N 07122W 6977 03066 9977 +087 +053 232047 050 032 004 00
110530 2412N 07121W 6967 03084 9994 +076 +050 233044 046 032 003 00
110600 2411N 07119W 6972 03080 9976 +095 +038 229046 047 031 003 00
110630 2410N 07118W 6966 03087 9976 +097 +028 226041 046 033 001 00
110700 2408N 07117W 6967 03087 9975 +100 +022 225038 041 033 001 00
$$
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 26 20150930
105730 2432N 07142W 6966 03035 9943 +073 +071 218058 062 045 027 03
105800 2431N 07141W 6973 03030 9945 +073 +071 221054 056 041 015 00
105830 2429N 07139W 6977 03030 9957 +071 +070 224053 058 039 013 00
105900 2428N 07138W 6982 03030 9954 +077 +064 223052 055 045 008 00
105930 2427N 07137W 6956 03062 9951 +079 +060 223056 057 045 005 00
110000 2426N 07135W 6971 03049 9947 +088 +060 223056 059 043 007 03
110030 2424N 07134W 6960 03062 9952 +083 +062 229053 057 042 012 03
110100 2423N 07133W 6961 03064 9968 +073 +066 226057 061 039 015 00
110130 2422N 07131W 6966 03062 9977 +067 +064 217056 059 034 009 00
110200 2421N 07130W 6964 03064 9964 +081 +063 217052 055 034 005 00
110230 2420N 07129W 6970 03063 9968 +082 +056 219051 052 038 005 00
110300 2418N 07128W 6975 03062 9967 +089 +046 220049 052 037 006 00
110330 2417N 07126W 6962 03080 9978 +082 +038 222047 048 038 007 00
110400 2416N 07125W 6971 03069 9987 +076 +043 222048 049 037 007 00
110430 2415N 07124W 6963 03081 9980 +083 +053 223048 050 034 006 00
110500 2414N 07122W 6977 03066 9977 +087 +053 232047 050 032 004 00
110530 2412N 07121W 6967 03084 9994 +076 +050 233044 046 032 003 00
110600 2411N 07119W 6972 03080 9976 +095 +038 229046 047 031 003 00
110630 2410N 07118W 6966 03087 9976 +097 +028 226041 046 033 001 00
110700 2408N 07117W 6967 03087 9975 +100 +022 225038 041 033 001 00
$$
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That moment when the NHC is ~ 20 mb off on their surface pressure estimate... Holy smokes.
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- tropicwatch
- Category 5
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969mb's holy crap, that will wake some people up.
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Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
- Extratropical94
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Dropsonde confirms low pressure, reports 972.
Code: Select all
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
972mb (Surface) 65° (from the ENE) 11 knots (13 mph)
932mb 70° (from the ENE) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 325° (from the NW) 7 knots (8 mph)
697mb 290° (from the WNW) 5 knots (6 mph)
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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