ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Track still well east of the United States but highly uncertain. That track the ECMWF showed out to sea is carrying some weight no doubt.

The Euro is the fig leaf allowing the NHC to continue to keep this offshore.

They may have not adjusted the track very far west, but in their wind probability product, they added a chance of hurricane force winds at stops all along the east coast from Wilmington to Montauk Point. The probabilities right now are low (less than 4%), but with the 5PM package they only had a 1% hurricane probability at Hatteras. Meanwhile, San Salvador in the Bahamas is at 33% for hurricane winds.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0254.shtml?

[CrazyC83]

Definitely bending left after the hard right turn, and intensity...yuck. This is not a good trend at all.

-Andrew92

This looks to be a split-the-difference forecast. The farther from 75 the better for me...but there are millions and millions of others possibly in the path. BUT...the last paragraph is critical.

[OuterBanker]

Yes, it looks like it shifted west 100 or so miles. Was between Bermuda and NC at 5. Also now 70 mph.

[GeneratorPower]

:uarrow: One of the lengthiest and most uncertain forecast discussions of intensity and track of a tropical cyclone I have seen from the NHC.

I think one of the greatest risks to life and property stemming from weather is forecast uncertainty. There is always a possibility that a location could be hit with less than 24 hours notice. We've gotten used to predictability 5 days in advance and it might be impossible from time to time.

[Andrew92]

Definitely bending left after the hard right turn, and intensity...yuck. This is not a good trend at all.

-Andrew92

This looks to be a split-the-difference forecast. The farther from 75 the better for me...but there are millions and millions of others possibly in the path. BUT...the last paragraph is critical.

Totally agree. But remember, don't just look at the cone in each individual advisory package. Like I said several times last night, the trend is your friend. (Well, in this case, likely our enemy, but hopefully you know what I mean here.)

-Andrew92

[MGC]

Hoping the Euro is right. This could be another case like Sandy where the GFS and Euro had vast track differences.....MGC

[NDG]

Like I said early this morning, the sypnotic forecast is very complicated, is either out to sea or impact to the NE US. I rather sit back and watch at this moment

[OuterBanker]

Running out of battery. I'm spoiled at home have business cable which tests 65 mps. Now working in the kps range. Horribly slow. Phone sporadic because of mountains. Forgot about that too. If we get a watch or warning will have to return early. I love the mountains, but miss the spoils of home.

[seussianagenda]

Please be careful in ruling out the mid atlantic seaboard...even if it isn't a direct hit, we will be underwater with 10-15 inches of rain here in norfolk.

[tatertawt24]

Wait, are the models shifting from a mid-atl landfall now?

[Hurricaneman]

The previous post was my first on Joaquin. Been out of touch since Sunday and am using my phone on really bad Internet. Is this the ull that moved to the surface? And wasn't this supposed to only get to depression status? What happened?

The opposite of whats been happening in 2015 in usually the storm weakens and the shear strengthens well the opposite is happening here and this could be the hurricane of 2015 and quite possibly could god forbid end the 10 year streak of no major landfalls

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[emeraldislenc]

It is really getting interesting now. So is it safe to say that the models are trending to the west?

[vacanechaser]

not been around much this season.. but checking things out.. remember, nhc will never make extreme shifts in the track forecast from the previous advisory. they are also waiting to see what the GIV data will do to the globals at 0Z. so this slight shift is about what i expected. If the models come in further west tonight, expect it to be a farther shift westward by morning and as the day goes tomorrow.

Living here in the Norfolk area, may not have far to travel for this one. even less than normal asn they usually hit the Outer Banks. Will see over the next several days



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Hammy]

Wait, are the models shifting from a mid-atl landfall now?

I think NHC is keeping it offshore for the time being until there is more solid agreement in the models in order to avoid a media panic. It shifted a bit west this advisory.

[Aric Dunn]

not been around much this season.. but checking things out.. remember, nhc will never make extreme shifts in the track forecast from the previous advisory. they are also waiting to see what the GIV data will do to the globals at 0Z. so this slight shift is about what i expected. If the models come in further west tonight, expect it to be a farther shift westward by morning and as the day goes tomorrow.

Living here in the Norfolk area, may not have far to travel for this one. even less than normal asn they usually hit the Outer Banks. Will see over the next several days



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Hey Mr. bass

[tropicwatch]

Aric you still job searching?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric you still job searching?

haha well I was not.. now I am again..lol have not changed that in 5 years.

[smithtim]

70... as expected.

Yeah but check out 3 days...110... as a math dude I know slight change in the IVC can have major effect... think last run crappy now all of a sudden defined growing cane in area high potential Rapid intenification and/or ERC...got my redflag up!!!

BTW good to see you here bro and hope all is well out there... FYI surf was crazy today, clean DOH and surfline is orange all week quick jump on a plane!!!

[seussianagenda]

not been around much this season.. but checking things out.. remember, nhc will never make extreme shifts in the track forecast from the previous advisory. they are also waiting to see what the GIV data will do to the globals at 0Z. so this slight shift is about what i expected. If the models come in further west tonight, expect it to be a farther shift westward by morning and as the day goes tomorrow.

Living here in the Norfolk area, may not have far to travel for this one. even less than normal asn they usually hit the Outer Banks. Will see over the next several days



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Hey Mr. bass

Jesse, I'm in West Ghent and if we get the rain this thing is calling for, we are screwed. 10 inches of rain and we are done.

[Hammy]

Western half of the convection has collapsed in the last hour, and the NAM (the first model with the shear data to run) shows level or weakened intensity over the next 60 hours. Better shear data may hit the reset button on the models intensity-wise.