ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

In this 30 frame unenhanced loop you can see some upper cloud motion to the south.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[Bocadude85]

If I was on Eleuthera in the Bahamas I would be preparing for some pretty rough weather. Joaquin looks to be making a beeline for that island.










__________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AutoPenalti]

In this 30 frame unenhanced loop you can see some upper cloud motion to the south.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

Based on the last couple of frames, it looks like it moved WNW.

[emeraldislenc]

What about warnings at 11 for the Bahamas?

[tolakram]

In this 30 frame unenhanced loop you can see some upper cloud motion to the south.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

Based on the last couple of frames, it looks like it moved WNW.

You can't see movement with IR, the mid level and upper level is moving based on the upper air conditions. I assume it's getting more aligned with the LLC which would make it appear to move north and west.

[crimi481]

It's possible another door cracks open for drifting more to South?.. as steering currents becoming flaky. Stalls or loops around.
I am no Pro- just sayin...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-bd.html

[AutoPenalti]

In this 30 frame unenhanced loop you can see some upper cloud motion to the south.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

Based on the last couple of frames, it looks like it moved WNW.

You can't see movement with IR, the mid level and upper level is moving based on the upper air conditions. I assume it's getting more aligned with the LLC which would make it appear to move north and west.

Would that be telling that the ridge is actually weakening pulling this system up to the north? Sorry if it's a dumb question.

[tropicwatch]

A little off topic but look at the moisture being pulled across Mexico from Marty.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2015 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 25:48:41 N Lon : 71:34:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 996.1mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 4.0

[WPBWeather]

This is where the GS 13 or 15 forecaster needs to think about what to recommend to the higher ups--who ultimately decide what goes out as far as watches or warnings. The TCVN model is not a line I would like to think about

[tropicwatch]

Intensity wise is also a call to be made I wouldn't want to make. I think they will wait for the most recent ASCAT which is due anytime now.

[gatorcane]

Question is: does the NHC show a United States landfall this update or do they wait to see what the overnight models and ECMWF do?

The media is going to have a field day with this system if the NHC track shows a hurricane into the US.

[Aric Dunn]

if recon was out there.. I bet they would say. open SW and thats it..

[Yellow Evan]

Intensity wise is also a call to be made I wouldn't want to make. I think they will wait for the most recent ASCAT which is due anytime now.

ASCAT is pretty useless as this point in it's intensity.

I also see little reason why we will not have a Category 3 or 4 hurricane in a day or two.

[emeraldislenc]

Good question about if they show a US landfall.

[invest man]

Question is: does the NHC show a United States landfall this update or do they wait to see what the overnight models and ECMWF do?

I feel that they have is issue watches for Bahamas at 11. Now whether they show a landfall on the US only if it is from Hatteras to Wilmington. IM

he following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[OuterBanker]

The previous post was my first on Joaquin. Been out of touch since Sunday and am using my phone on really bad Internet. Is this the ull that moved to the surface? And wasn't this supposed to only get to depression status? What happened?

[GeneratorPower]

They will not show a landfall on the mainland US. No way. They will probably wait a few more advisories.

[AutoPenalti]

The previous post was my first on Joaquin. Been out of touch since Sunday and am using my phone on really bad Internet. Is this the ull that moved to the surface? And wasn't this supposed to only get to depression status? What happened?

Weather happened.

[emeraldislenc]

Can't wait for the 11 pm !