ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

What are the odds of a us hit?

decent

What are the odds that this could a major hurricane at landfall?

[Aric Dunn]

Im sure you all know what happens to the majority of Storms that drop wsw or sw right I can name a lot.... ?

[tatertawt24]

Tonight's 11pm advisory will be really interesting!

I think it'll probably be upgraded to hurricane intensity based on imagery, unless it starts weakening.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Well, this escalated quickly. Nothing like popping on the forum and finding out you might get clocked by a hurricane.

[Hammy]

Microwave imagery still shows a badly sheared storm but there is much more banding than yesterday.

Tonight's 11pm advisory will be really interesting!

I think it'll probably be upgraded to hurricane intensity based on imagery, unless it starts weakening.

There's a morning recon, barring ASCAT data showing such, they may wait until then to upgrade if it makes it by then.

[terstorm1012]

If they don't upgrade at 11 I think it'll be at 5am too.

The center still looks a bit exposed unless I'm imagining things.

[hurricanekid416]

Anybody remember when td 11 was designated on the first advisory there were hurricane warnings up for the mid atlantic as a mistake, those warnings may actually go up eventually, its a HUGE coincidence

[SeGaBob]

Interesting storm for sure.

[ozonepete]

Microwave imagery still shows a badly sheared storm but there is much more banding than yesterday.

There's a morning recon, barring ASCAT data showing such, they may wait until then to upgrade if it makes it by then.

?? Aric just posted microwave sat images which clearly show it is not badly sheared at all. Shear has clearly dropped.

[tatertawt24]

Anybody remember when td 11 was designated on the first advisory there were hurricane warnings up for the mid atlantic as a mistake, those warnings may actually go up eventually, its a HUGE coincidence

How did I miss that?

Another really ironic thing: My town randomly just started putting up Hurricane Evacuation Route signs last week.

[YoshiMike]

Do you guys think that if this does hit the United states, it could hit central new England like VT and NH and CT or is it either gonna be into like jersey or out towards maine? Too soon to tell I guess

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We're probably looking at an intensifying hurricane this evening.

[emeraldislenc]

Could it impact NC or more north of NC?

[Hammy]

Microwave imagery still shows a badly sheared storm but there is much more banding than yesterday.

There's a morning recon, barring ASCAT data showing such, they may wait until then to upgrade if it makes it by then.

?? Aric just posted microwave sat images which clearly show it is not badly sheared at all. Shear has clearly dropped.

3/4 of the circulation is low clouds, that still counts as badly sheared. Convection either has yet to wrap around or has been sheared back off from where it was earlier.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting video by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... uncertain/

[gatorcane]

The key to the entire forecast for Joaquin is where and how strong a cut-off low gets that the models are forming over the SE United States. There is nothing there now, but models think in a few days this cut-off low will form and amplify the trough over the Eastern U.S.

[MGC]

Joaquin is still experiences northerly shear. Half of the circulation is exposed, doubt the cyclone attains hurricane intensity till tomorrow. This is going to be an interesting track forecast the next couple of days. All along the east coast from Cape Hatteras to Main should pay close attention to Joaquin......MGC

[gatorcane]

Could it impact NC or more north of NC?

Yes in fact latest HWRF and GFS Ensemble mean has shifted more west and over NC

[emeraldislenc]

What part of nc

[JtSmarts]

The 18z HWRF looks to move Joaquin w/wnw right into the Central NC coast.