ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

NHC's track is non-commital. Just slow it down and don't indicate any landfall until confidence increases, I'm sure. Not necessarily a bad idea for the general public. We can't afford to do that for our clients, however. Agree with the 80kts (or more) intensity.

[floridasun78]

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands
later this evening.

[cycloneye]

[drezee]

that was a punt of a track...yes the super ensemble will say that...it could be inland in 5 days

[Extratropical94]

Quite a busy day tomorrow.

Code: Select all

1. TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73           FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 30/1130Z                     A. 01/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0311A JOAQUIN          B. NOAA9 0411A JOAQUIN
       C. 30/0715Z                     C. 30/1730Z
       D. 26.3N 72.4W                  D. NA
       E. 30/1100Z TO 30/1400Z         E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT              F. 41,000 TO 45,000FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 74         FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
       A. 30/2330Z                     A. 01/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0511A JOAQUIN          B. NOAA9 0611A JOAQUIN
       C. 30/1930Z                     C. 01/0530Z
       D. 26.3N 73.1W                  D. NA
       E. 30/2300Z TO 01/0200Z         E. NA 
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT              F. 41,000 TO 45,000FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 75
       A. 01/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0711A JOAQUIN
       C. 01/0730Z
       D. 26.1N 73.7W
       E. 01/1100Z TO 01/1400Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES
       BEGINNING AT 01/2330Z. G-IV MISSIONS DEPARTING AT 01/1730Z
       AND 02/0530Z.

[xironman]

wxman57 mid atlantic landfall as in nc va nj? which is most likely

Virginia Beach (not kidding). Fortunately, for you, often the safest place to be is near the 5-day track point.

That would be an unmitigated disaster, good thing it won't happen.

[BobHarlem]

that was a punt of a track...yes the super ensemble will say that...it could be inland in 5 days

Welcome to the Erika effect. (although that could imply further west than projected)

[Weatherwatcher98]

that was a punt of a track...yes the super ensemble will say that...it could be inland in 5 days

That is one hell of an angled turn

[ozonepete]

that was a punt of a track...yes the super ensemble will say that...it could be inland in 5 days

Definite punt, as wxman also said. The spread is so far from the ensembles to the operational global models it pays to wait. I'm sure the spread will narrow way down tomorrow.

[jlauderdal]

Wesh 2 said it should not impact Florida. They also said shear is affecting it right now.

this is not a Florida system in any scenario..deflector shield is locked and loaded for the next few weeks, at least

[Weatherwatcher98]

Wesh 2 said it should not impact Florida. They also said shear is affecting it right now.

this is not a Florida system in any scenario..deflector shield is locked and loaded for the next few weeks, at least

That's likely the case and probably the only threat to Florida for the rest of the season would come from the Caribbean.

[Hammy]

that was a punt of a track...yes the super ensemble will say that...it could be inland in 5 days

Definite punt, as wxman also said. The spread is so far from the ensembles to the operational global models it pays to wait. I'm sure the spread will narrow way down tomorrow.

We're closing in on your Wednesday time frame as far as far as the intensity goes and it looks like mine has completely gone out the window--I even lost a bit of money on it if it keeps strengthening.

The shorter-term Euro is starting to look a bit more realistic, and while I don't see a major coming out of this it could make a run at Cat 2 given NHC intenstiy forecast.

Interestingly a few of the mesoscale models (NAM and WRF-ARW) take this to Cat 4 within 48 hours.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Aren't those models less accurate though Hammy??

[ScottNAtlanta]

At what point does the Norfolk Naval Base send ships out to sea to ride out a potential storm? Does anyone know how much lead time something like that would need to execute?
I'm asking because if anyone in the navy would need to get property ready before they go out to sea...now might be the time...better over prepare than under.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest microwave as the alst hour or so..

clearly still not stacked but much better than it has been.

[chaser1]

Wesh 2 said it should not impact Florida. They also said shear is affecting it right now.

this is not a Florida system in any scenario..deflector shield is locked and loaded for the next few weeks, at least

Well, "any scenario" based on guidance at hand anyway. I think everything is up for reassessment after the 0Z runs. Not sure why the 18Z NAM seems to have gotten stuck at the 48 hr. forecast?? Lets just say that i've got greater confidence that the Dolphins will go undefeated for the rest of the year, than the handle models or anyone seems to have on the near to mid term evolution of steering dynamics currently in place.

[ozonepete]

that was a punt of a track...yes the super ensemble will say that...it could be inland in 5 days

Definite punt, as wxman also said. The spread is so far from the ensembles to the operational global models it pays to wait. I'm sure the spread will narrow way down tomorrow.

We're closing in on your Wednesday time frame as far as far as the intensity goes and it looks like mine has completely gone out the window--I even lost a bit of money on it if it keeps strengthening.

The shorter-term Euro is starting to look a bit more realistic, and while I don't see a major coming out of this it could make a run at Cat 2 given NHC intenstiy forecast.

Interestingly a few of the mesoscale models (NAM and WRF-ARW) take this to Cat 4 within 48 hours.

Good observations. Really these are some of the most wacko forecasts I have ever seen out of the euro and GFS, especially the Euro - just all over the map and doing 360s from one run to the next. In part it follows my theory that the models have gotten so excellent on track but with one exception: they can't handle some stalled systems very well. And clearly they still don't handle shear very well. This is a case where both of those hardest to handle cases came together.

[Hammy]

Aren't those models less accurate though Hammy??

NAM is iffy--it got Claudette's formation right (the only one to do so days out), was the most accurate intensity-wise with Ana/Bill as well, but spun up a few storms that never formed; this is the first stronger storm to test it's forecast strength though.

WRF mesoscale models are notable for agreeing with Euro, but I never checked them when there was an active system out there so I have no idea of their accuracy on that.

[weathernerdguy]

Does this storm even know if there is a el nino?

[Weatherwatcher98]

Thanks Hammy