ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting to note. if it does begin to move more wsw or Sw over the next 24 hours. the component of shear will lesson slightly giving it chance to intensify more before the shear actually weakens.

Which would move it north/poleward quicker right?

only if the mid level ridging that is supposed to briefly build does not. this is a very tricky situation.

[Hammy]

There is a sunken area in the clouds near the LLC. I would watch here over the next 24 hours for an eye to possibly form if it can remain stacked.

[wxman57]

WV loop indicates shear is decreasing. I think it will be a hurricane tomorrow, maybe by sunrise. I still don't buy the deterministic GFS & EC runs at all. They're still WAY different from the ensemble members. Mid Atlantic hurricane landfall Sunday afternoon/evening appears to be a good bet. However, track uncertainty is much greater than normal.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a sunken area in the clouds near the LLC. I would watch here over the next 24 hours for an eye to possibly form if it can remain stacked.

Ive been tracking the center from when it was exposed to where recon last reported it. Also have noticed that area that appears to have a curved band from NE to SE on visible. Only problem is the low level CU lines dont fit exactly with that feature. it likely had a strong burst that tried wrapping around and now the shear has begun to push it away.

[TheStormExpert]

WV loop indicates shear is decreasing. I think it will be a hurricane tomorrow, maybe by sunrise. I still don't buy the deterministic GFS & EC runs at all. They're still WAY different from the ensemble members. Mid Atlantic hurricane landfall Sunday afternoon/evening appears to be a good bet. However, track uncertainty is much greater than normal.

Have the 12z Euro Ensembles come in yet?

[hurricanedude]

wxman57 mid atlantic landfall as in nc va nj? which is most likely

[wxman57]

http://i.imgur.com/Z1rXtgo.png

There is a sunken area in the clouds near the LLC. I would watch here over the next 24 hours for an eye to possibly form if it can remain stacked.

Microwave imagery indicates a small warm spot there.

[wxman57]

wxman57 mid atlantic landfall as in nc va nj? which is most likely

Virginia Beach (not kidding). Fortunately, for you, often the safest place to be is near the 5-day track point.

[Weatherwatcher98]

WV loop indicates shear is decreasing. I think it will be a hurricane tomorrow, maybe by sunrise. I still don't buy the deterministic GFS & EC runs at all. They're still WAY different from the ensemble members. Mid Atlantic hurricane landfall Sunday afternoon/evening appears to be a good bet. However, track uncertainty is much lower than normal.

I am curious if there is ANY chance the ridge builds and pushes this westward. I am only asking because you were spot on with 99L. Also you mean in the last part of your post Higher than normal...Correct?

[hurricanedude]

gee thanks....thats my hometown....tell me your joking

[LarryWx]

That warm spot, if the center, suggests it has moved slowly southward since the recon was in it.

[chaser1]

http://i.imgur.com/Z1rXtgo.png

There is a sunken area in the clouds near the LLC. I would watch here over the next 24 hours for an eye to possibly form if it can remain stacked.

Ive been tracking the center from when it was exposed to where recon last reported it. Also have noticed that area that appears to have a curved band from NE to SE on visible. Only problem is the low level CU lines don't fit exactly with that feature. it likely had a string burst that tried wrapping around and now the shear has begun to push it away.

Nonetheless Aric, it certainly does appear that the LLC has become far better aligned and vertically stacked under the western fringe of convection. If it continues bursting (especially as one would think through the diurnal max), than might that actually enhance it's westward (or WSW?) motion in the near term, given the added heat being dispersed in the upper layers and thus aiding to enhance the ridge to its north?

[storm4u]

Watching this one closely up here could be a big rain producer wont need that after tonight and tomorrows deluge models all over though

[wxman57]

WV loop indicates shear is decreasing. I think it will be a hurricane tomorrow, maybe by sunrise. I still don't buy the deterministic GFS & EC runs at all. They're still WAY different from the ensemble members. Mid Atlantic hurricane landfall Sunday afternoon/evening appears to be a good bet. However, track uncertainty is much lower than normal.

I am curious if there is ANY chance the ridge builds and pushes this westward. I am only asking because you were spot on with 99L. Also you mean in the last part of your post Higher than normal...Correct?

Westward to Florida? Probably not. Not one of 70 ensemble members indicates that possibility. Oh, and yes, uncertainty is GREATER than normal.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: That warm spot, if the center, suggests it has moved slowly southward since the recon was in it.

That little warm spot is not the center. look at the blue colors indicating the low levels you can see curved bands going right through it.. also that image was from 4 hours ago now when the center was exposed.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: That warm spot, if the center, suggests it has moved slowly southward since the recon was in it.

that's from 17z, when recon was in it

[Aric Dunn]

http://i.imgur.com/Z1rXtgo.png

There is a sunken area in the clouds near the LLC. I would watch here over the next 24 hours for an eye to possibly form if it can remain stacked.

Ive been tracking the center from when it was exposed to where recon last reported it. Also have noticed that area that appears to have a curved band from NE to SE on visible. Only problem is the low level CU lines don't fit exactly with that feature. it likely had a string burst that tried wrapping around and now the shear has begun to push it away.

Nonetheless Aric, it certainly does appear that the LLC has become far better aligned and vertically stacked under the western fringe of convection. If it continues bursting (especially as one would think through the diurnal max), than might that actually enhance it's westward (or WSW?) motion in the near term, given the added heat being dispersed in the upper layers and thus aiding to enhance the ridge to its north?

Yeah its definitely much better organized. with the convection building and the center pulled each time back wsw into it. it should migrate that direction like the models are showing then once the shear weakens it should have a chance to deepen quickly.

[Weatherwatcher98]

WV loop indicates shear is decreasing. I think it will be a hurricane tomorrow, maybe by sunrise. I still don't buy the deterministic GFS & EC runs at all. They're still WAY different from the ensemble members. Mid Atlantic hurricane landfall Sunday afternoon/evening appears to be a good bet. However, track uncertainty is much lower than normal.

I am curious if there is ANY chance the ridge builds and pushes this westward. I am only asking because you were spot on with 99L. Also you mean in the last part of your post Higher than normal...Correct?

Westward to Florida? Probably not. Not one of 70 ensemble members indicates that possibility. Oh, and yes, uncertainty is GREATER than normal.

Thanks. Complex situation it seems.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 71.0W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Joaquin.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of the Bahamas later
this evening.



TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

The cloud pattern of the storm has become better organized during
the day, with the low level center now embedded inside the northern
edge of the main area of deep convection. Animation of cirrus
motions suggest that upper-level outflow is becoming a little more
prominent over the northern portion of the circulation, and this is
consistent with decreasing northerly shear. Flight-level,
dropsonde, and SFMR wind observations from an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Joaquin has strengthened and
the intensity is now estimated to be 55 kt. With a more favorable
upper-level wind environment now expected to prevail, the official
forecast calls for more strengthening than the previous advisories.
Joaquin is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, with
additional intensification likely thereafter. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the latest SHIPS model output.

Fixes from the aircraft show a southward component of motion and
the initial motion estimate is now 240/4 kt. Joaquin is currently
south of the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. The
ECMWF model shows this ridging to the north of the tropical cyclone
to be more prominent over the next few days than the other dynamical
models. Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the
west and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available
guidance. Later in the forecast period, there is a significant
divergence in the track guidance. The HWRF and U.K. Met Office
models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United
States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system
well offshore. The official forecast lies between these
possibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State University
Superensemble solution.

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands
later this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 said it should not impact Florida. They also said shear is affecting it right now.