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Ntxw wrote::uarrow: And a lot of the systems did not poof because of dry air this year or sinking air. Most of it was shear blowing their convection off, the strong centers kept fighting. If the shear relaxed we could've had very big systems. I think things are changing after this El Nino episode is over.
Hurricaneman wrote:in december I'll start a 2016 version of this thread
on topic: the conditions have been aweful for tropical cyclone development other than in the Eastern Atlantic but if not for El Nino the Atlantic probably would have been on fire which is why next year will probably be above average and a year similar to 1998 can't be ruled out for 2016. Ill give more specifics as we near the end of the year
Also I expect maybe 2 more systems to develop before we call it a season and it may be in the Gulf or Western Atlantic as there is the real area to look at later in the season with an El Nino present
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Ntxw wrote:There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.
Hammy wrote:Ntxw wrote:There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.
The way Joaquin's going we may squeak out a hurricane this month at the very last minute.
chaser1 wrote:Hammy wrote:Ntxw wrote:There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.
The way Joaquin's going we may squeak out a hurricane this month at the very last minute.
It's beginning to really look like it may. Not sure the formula for how much ACE is achieved for a minimal Cat. 1 that lasts a couple days, but then again 2 days could become 3, and an unanticipated Cat. 1 could well evolve into a Cat 2 or 3. One thing for sure, these fairly tight and smaller systems do have the capacity to wind up all that much faster under the right conditions. Present SST's are the one factor that certainly aid toward that possibility.
Hammy wrote:Ntxw wrote:There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.
The way Joaquin's going we may squeak out a hurricane this month at the very last minute.
Ntxw wrote:Hammy wrote:Ntxw wrote:There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.
The way Joaquin's going we may squeak out a hurricane this month at the very last minute.
Lets see if it can do it, if it does indeed become a major at that point it can pull off 10-15 units of ACE given it's location. That would definitely give ACE units a boost into the 40+ range total
Alyono wrote:after Joaquin we may be over 50 units of ACE
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