NDG wrote:caneman wrote:Im not buying it ndg. Im not saying anything significant will develop but I am saying I don't believe models this year. Further, I have seen many high end ts's in the GOM with shear in place. Im in a wait and see mode.
Like I said, the facts this year have been that the upper level environment turns out as bad if not worst than forecasted by the models in our part of the Atlantic since late July. If it would had been the other way around you would have had a point.
Yes, I have seen high end TS in the GOM but with only 20-30 knot UL winds not 40-60 knot winds as forecasted as the vorticity approaches the central and northern GOM. Another bad condition will be mid level shear which has been probably even more damaging as we saw with 94L a few days ago in the SW GOM.
All true, but there is a chance although small that it is able to become tropical. Something else to consider is that the shear should become more SW or Southerly over the central Gulf with the surface reflection also moving northward. However high that forward motion can become to reduce the effect of the shear by maybe 10 kts or so could come into play. Going to be interesting to watch!
I respect your "wait and see" attitude with the disturbance but we are within 96 hrs of whatever forms in the GOM moving inland into the northern gulf coast. Models if anything have ended up too aggressive this season, most times, since late July. There's no reason to loose sleep over the potential of something significant developing because the facts are against it. The NHC is only giving it a 20% so I am not the only one 
