Posible GOM development?

[Big_Stevo29]

18z GFS does less with the Gulf system. I didn't look at the surface winds, but I can't imagine them being that strong in this run since it barely closes off anything. Heaviest rainfall is centered over Mobile Bay (through 8 days) in the 5-10" range. A swath of 4-5" crosses lower Plaquemines parish, the Chandeleur Islands (if they even still exist) and into Jackson County, MS.

I could use some rain here in Biloxi; grass and shrubs are getting dry.

[Steve]

18z GFS does less with the Gulf system. I didn't look at the surface winds, but I can't imagine them being that strong in this run since it barely closes off anything. Heaviest rainfall is centered over Mobile Bay (through 8 days) in the 5-10" range. A swath of 4-5" crosses lower Plaquemines parish, the Chandeleur Islands (if they even still exist) and into Jackson County, MS.

I could use some rain here in Biloxi; grass and shrubs are getting dry.

I hear you. According to the 18z, you are in the 4" ish range thru 192 hours/8 days.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... Size=M&ps=

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea and Central
America. This system is not expected to develop during the next day
or two as it moves north-northwestward across Central America and
the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the disturbance reaches the southern
Gulf of Mexico in a few days, conditions could become a little more
favorable for development while the system moves northward across
the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[HeeBGBz]

I better put some gorilla glue on my rubber boots, it may be soggy next week. . When does this start to ferment according to the models? There seems to be some action in the w. Caribbean but its looking random.

[KatDaddy]

Not much of a concern at this point but still something to watch through the weekend.

[ronjon]

I better put some gorilla glue on my rubber boots, it may be soggy next week. . When does this start to ferment according to the models? There seems to be some action in the w. Caribbean but its looking random.

Late Sunday it should emerge or form off the north Yucatan coast.

[HeeBGBz]

Thanks its just something interesting to wait and see.

[rickybobby]

Just heard it has a low chance of hitting Florida. Central Florida should get rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now they have it hitting MS as a td or a weak ts.

[LarryWx]

Thanks Steve. You're right I hate the hyperbole and the modeling wars. I come on here to learn. I know the Euro has had a good year or two but I believe it doesn't serve to board well or newbies to see these types of overinflated claims. The NHC uses a blend and will sometimes bias towards one or another models performance. No offense to you LarryWx, I'm sorry if it came of that way. I really enjoy your posts.

caneman,
Thank you. No worries. I didn't take offense at all to your comment regarding my calling the Euro "King". I just like having fun with the various well-known model nicknames sometimes because of the dry humor/silly side of me even though I'm usually serious. I agree that the reign of the Euro has been a bit rough in recent years lol.
Some nicknames I've seen used:
Euro: King, Doctor No/Doctor/Doc/Good Doctor, Great One
GFS: Goofy, GooFuS, MU (a winner from Alyono)
CMC: Crazy Uncle, Cartoon (both brilliant & from JB)

The 0Z MU has it at its strongest in the GOM at ~1005 mb with landfall early 10/29 north central Gulf.

[Big_Stevo29]

Thanks Steve. You're right I hate the hyperbole and the modeling wars. I come on here to learn. I know the Euro has had a good year or two but I believe it doesn't serve to board well or newbies to see these types of overinflated claims. The NHC uses a blend and will sometimes bias towards one or another models performance. No offense to you LarryWx, I'm sorry if it came of that way. I really enjoy your posts.

caneman,
Thank you. No worries. I didn't take offense at all to your comment regarding my calling the Euro "King". I just like having fun with the various well-known model nicknames sometimes because of the dry humor/silly side of me even though I'm usually serious. I agree that the reign of the Euro has been a bit rough in recent years lol.
Some nicknames I've seen used:
Euro: King, Doctor No/Doctor/Doc/Good Doctor, Great One
GFS: Goofy, GooFuS, MU (a winner from Alyono)
CMC: Crazy Uncle, Cartoon (both brilliant & from JB)

The 0Z MU has it at its strongest in the GOM at ~1005 mb with landfall early 10/29 north central Gulf.

If that model pans out are you saying that landfall is protected to occur somewhere in the north central gulf on 10/29? Did you mean to say 09/29? Forgive me if I misunderstood what you meant by the 10/29 reference.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z MU has it at its strongest in the GOM at ~1005 mb with landfall early 10/29 north central Gulf.

If that model pans out are you saying that landfall is protected to occur somewhere in the north central gulf on 10/29? Did you mean to say 09/29? Forgive me if I misunderstood what you meant by the 10/29 reference.

Ooops, 9/29. Sorry. Good catch.

[caneman]

Ok no worries larrywx. Well, let's see if anything amounts.from this. Ill go with not much wind wise. Nothing close in seems to be able to take hold with the wind shear but as seen in past, if it's moving with directional wind shear, you could see a high end t.s. however, as we've seen in the Tampa Bay area this year, rain can do plenty enough damage. Just my opinion.

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; +96hr

Not much to speak of.

[N2FSU]

0Z Euro; +120hr

Still not much.

[stormlover2013]

06 gfs washes it out in central gulf

[NDG]

And the chances of development by the NHC remains at 20% this morning, with a low pressure forecasted to start developing on Sunday in the southern GOM, only two days away, that is a very low confidence that it will develop into a tropical storm.
I don't blame them, how can it get tropical characteristics with 30-40 knots UL winds on top of it on Sunday and Monday with up to 60 knots on Tuesday!

[Janie2006]

It's difficult to see this feature being much more than a heavy rain threat given the rather inhospitable conditions. Take your pick, mein herren und damen...north central Gulf Coast, Florida, 1005 MB, 1006 MB or nothing at all! All of those solutions are equally valid right now.

[NDG]

BTW, the 06z GFS run is very similar to the 0z Euro run.

[stormlover2013]

euro develops 2 lows

[Janie2006]

With shear values running around 60 kts (GFS) and 40 kts (Euro) it's going to be very difficult for anything to really cook in the Gulf. 20% development, and no reason to think otherwise. 20% may be generous!