Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I felt like this Winter could be closer to 1957 until you said Nino 1+2 were rising, if we can get the Nino to go Modoki it should be a fun one.

This El Nino is already much bigger than 1957, that event peaked at 1.7C and we are already getting weekly readings at 2.3C. 1997 peaked at 2.3C and that is the strongest event on record. Nino 1+2's weekly readings is at 2.6C.

That is the thing about this El Nino, we are not talking expected or forecasted to become very strong...it already is bigger than all other Nino's except for one, maybe two. And peak isn't until winter. 2009 is like a drop in the bucket in comparison.

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: I'm not yet concerned that the immediate weather will persist. Last October was a top 10 warmest ever but didn't have implications.

I want to see improvements in the Pacific, a wet fall and winter is a good bet but we need cold air source.

Ok, Ntxw, you are the expert. The longer the cold stays up there, the better the chances, right? Also, Larry called for a warm to normal October back in early September. So far, he is right. Even with normal, the temperature is still tolerable in the low to mid 80's. By the way, I remember the only October we baked. That was 2004. Great Golly Miss Molly, that was a bad one. Halloween was really bad...It did snow in December, if memory serves.


Houston- Warmest Octobers Ever

Top 10
Warmest
77.5 2004
76.7 1963
76.5 1947
76.3 1962
76.0 1919
75.7 1941
75.6 1934
75.6 1931
74.8 1950
74.8 1926
Halloween......88 - 2004


So...hopefully it is cooler...

By El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral

El Nino
1941
1963
2004

La Nina
1926
1934
1947
1950
1962

Neutral
1919
1931

La Nina favors warmer October. 1919 and 1931 came off an El Nino.

[Ptarmigan]

1957 El Nino was a Modoki El Nino like in 1991-1992 or 2009-2010.

I have read that 1877-1878 is likely a big one as well.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah ntx, im hoping the 1+2 nino region doesnt heat up either. Check into it with years when we had the cool pool. Again, if air is streaming in from the pacific, it may not matter either way.

[Ntxw]

One interesting aspect of Nino's is (as we saw last year) November. It is usually cold and opportunity for mischief following the wet October. Even in 1997.

[wxman57]

The 6Z GFS does indicate a significant cold front for Texas around October 10th. Even though summer is now officially over, I get to enjoy 2 more weeks of pleasant weather before the big chill.

[aggiecutter]

Interesting takes on the upcoming fall and winter from JB. He agrees with me in that he thinks we will see a very active severe weather season this fall. The link is to a Arkansas Weather Blog, but he does talk about Texas and other parts of the country.

http://arkansasweather.blogspot.com/201 ... l?spref=tw

[CaptinCrunch]

A couple of things of noting here

1. Most of the forecast for El Nino including models, chats, and analysis have it peaking late Fall early Winter and peaking at around 2.8/3.0 in nino 3,4. I actually feel this El Nino will peak by December. Either way November and December will be wet and mild months. We really won't see our winter till mid January through mid March as El Nino weakens.

2. Last Novembers record cold snap across the US was not related to Nino. As I posted earlier it was due to The Bering Sea cyclone that was the most intense extratropical cyclone (also a bomb cyclone) ever recorded in the Bering Sea. It basically dislodged a large chunk of the Polar High and dumped it south into Canada and the US. That cold snap only lasted 7 days across NTX (12th-18th) were we averaged -22 degrees below the daily norm, and we closed out the month of November at 79 degrees. November ended at -5.1 for the monthly average, while December was +5 for the monthly average.

3. The October outlook does not look good as the first half of the month looks to be warm and dry before it cools off and rain chances go up for the rest of the month.

I love Fall and Winter, they are my favorite seasons, and I agree with NTXW on wishing this was a moderate El Nino as that would give us the best chance of a sweet winter. On a good thought if you like Spring severe weather I think this super El Nino will deliver.

[Ntxw]

To add to capncrunch, I would take my chances with a very strong Nino vs a very strong Nina. Last November's outbreak was not directly related to El nino but wpac typhoons are common in November during such periods. That is the key to unusual November outbreaks. Doesn't always link but the more there are the better the odds.

[CaptinCrunch]

To add to capncrunch, I would take my chances with a very strong Nino vs a very strong Nina. Last November's outbreak was not directly related to El nino but wpac typhoons are common in November during such periods. That is the key to unusual November outbreaks. Doesn't always link but the more there are the better the odds.

I agree, Strong Nina would be like the 12 months of summer....lol

[gboudx]

Sounds like CapnCrunch's much anticipated and highly respected Halloween forecast will be extra important this year.

[Brent]

The 6z GFS brought back the big cold front late next week... comes through next Friday in DFW with a good bit of rain and much cooler air next weekend. We'll see if it can hold for more than a run.

[weatherdude1108]

The 6z GFS brought back the big cold front late next week... comes through next Friday in DFW with a good bit of rain and much cooler air next weekend. We'll see if it can hold for more than a run.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/2h7m9f6.jpg

I'm liking that map! One more run,...one more run,...one more run...

[CaptinCrunch]

Sounds like CapnCrunch's much anticipated and highly respected Halloween forecast will be extra important this year.

I have a feeling Halloween will be wet this year, cool early on getting a little chilly by the time most are done with trick or treating.

[Brent]

I'm liking that map! One more run,...one more run,...one more run...

I knew we weren't that lucky.

[Tireman4]

The 6Z GFS does indicate a significant cold front for Texas around October 10th. Even though summer is now officially over, I get to enjoy 2 more weeks of pleasant weather before the big chill.

Ehh....I am just numb. Not ready to believe it. Give me 3-4 runs and we talk. Meanwhile, the sun in shining on your building sir. I see it. It is telling you to get out and bike..

[wxman57]

12Z GFS dropped the October 10th cold front across TX. No significant cold fronts for the next 2 weeks, at least, according to the GFS.

[Tireman4]

12Z GFS dropped the October 10th cold front across TX. No significant cold fronts for the next 2 weeks, at least, according to the GFS.

As if on cue...ughh.....well...normal for IAH on October 10 is...84 and 63...I could live with that....

[Brent]

12Z GFS dropped the October 10th cold front across TX. No significant cold fronts for the next 2 weeks, at least, according to the GFS.

Shouldn't you be outside biking? It'll be winter soon.

Edit: It appears the 12z Euro has a big cold front around next Fri/Sat too, just like the 6z GFS but not like the 12z.

[Brent]