Posible GOM development?

[ROCK]

Needs to develop in the BOC to have the best chance. IMO

[TJRE]

take a look thru here.....
http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
very interesting atm.....

GEM Day 5 outlook




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

nice link
http://www.hfip.org/data/?Path=determine

[LarryWx]

At 60 hours, the 12Z GFS is a little stronger with the developing low vs the prior 3 GFS runs.

[Stormcenter]

Graphics please.....thanks!

At 60 hours, the 12Z GFS is a little stronger with the developing low vs the prior 3 GFS runs.

[cycloneye]

At 120 hours on 12z GFS.

[cycloneye]

Landfall in Louisiana as a TD/Weak TS.

[Alyono]

CMC dropped the insane idea of a strong hurricane

[BigB0882]

CMC dropped the insane idea of a strong hurricane

But the CMC is always wrong so if it is showing nothing then that means there will be a major hurricane. Oh, the horror! (sarcasm off).

[LarryWx]

CMC dropped the insane idea of a strong hurricane

Yep, the 12Z Crazy Uncle didn't have it drop back south 200 miles after an initial hit on LA and then become a 969 mb cane as the 0Z CMC did. I'm absolutely shocked it changed.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc will have it hitting New York next run lol

[TJRE]

All kidding aside.... global model signals with potential atm
--will keep me tuned in!!!


Points of Origin by 10-Day Period





http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori10

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

great loops from LSU
https://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosph ... ropics/WV/

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea and Central
America. This system is not expected to develop during the next day
or two as it moves north-northwestward across Central America and
the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the disturbance reaches the southern
Gulf of Mexico in a few days, conditions could become a little more
favorable for development while the system moves northward across
the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[wxman57]

I think it's very likely some type of low will form in the Gulf next Mon/Tue. The low will be a surface reflection of a sharp upper-level trof/low across TX and the western Gulf. Wind shear will be quite high across the central to northern Gulf, limiting tropical development potential.

[TJRE]

Something to keep in mind with regards to shear forecasts

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/keynotes/keyno ... shear.html



My vibe is for an early ramp-up on this system.
Then we will see how that gulf journey goes down!!!!

Todays Action
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... p#Sector_3


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Steve]

I think it's very likely some type of low will form in the Gulf next Mon/Tue. The low will be a surface reflection of a sharp upper-level trof/low across TX and the western Gulf. Wind shear will be quite high across the central to northern Gulf, limiting tropical development potential.

That seems pretty reasonable. I could see development to a pulsing system of 45-50mph offshore with some 20-30mph winds in our area and the bulk of the rain to the east. QPF 12Z dropped the rain farther east as well. What I think will be key, because a moisture surge is coming up regardless of whether this ever forms into anything, is the orientation of the sharp ULL across TX/W Gulf. I think that determines whether this comes up north or goes more NNE. Early guess would be most of the weather affecting MS/AL/NWFL. What I'm completely not sure of is what happens with the low pressure once it gets to land. There will be an early alley for it to just stretch out and move up the front, but there is a strong high progged behind it that could limit northward motion if it doesn't take the easy way up and out. I think that's why CMC was dropping this back into the Gulf for a loop. GFS just generally weakens the low but it maybe drops a small piece back at 300mb in conjunction with the large upper trough it has in the extreme Western Gulf.

[stormlover2013]

CMC, I wouldn't even bring that model up lol

[blp]

Something to keep in mind with regards to shear forecasts

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/keynotes/keyno ... shear.html

[]http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/windshear_figure2_zpsnunabe6u.jpg[/img]

My vibe is for an early ramp-up on this system.
Then we will see how that gulf journey goes down!!!!

Todays Action
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... p#Sector_3


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Good point. Wind shear is always tricky. It can aid a system in some cases as much as destroy it. I remember with Wilma the duscussion early on was how it would get weakened significantly once it entered the Gulf and it turned out that it was aided by the front. Of course this no Wilma or 2005 but just an example. I think the key point as you stated was to see how it emerges from the Yucatan.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z King (Euro) has spoken and has only a highly sheared very loose system with ~1004 mb for the lowest SLP.

[Steve]

CMC, I wouldn't even bring that model up lol

Someone mentioned some of its recent antics on the previous page which is why I referenced that.

[Stormcenter]

Can you post some images. Thanks LarryWx.

The 12Z King (Euro) has spoken and has only a highly sheared very loose system with ~1004 mb for the lowest SLP.