EPAC: INVEST 92E
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- Extratropical94
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EPAC: INVEST 92E
92E INVEST 150923 1800 10.6N 90.7W EPAC 15 NA
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week.
Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend while the low
moves northward or northeastward toward the coast of Mexico.
Interests in Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Funny how there is no lemon on the map even though the two day probability is different from zero.
Edit: Okay they just changed it.
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week.
Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend while the low
moves northward or northeastward toward the coast of Mexico.
Interests in Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Funny how there is no lemon on the map even though the two day probability is different from zero.
Edit: Okay they just changed it.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and shower activity extends
for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of Central America.
An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the weekend while the low moves
northward or northeastward toward the southeastern coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southeastern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Forecaster Brennan
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and shower activity extends
for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of Central America.
An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the weekend while the low moves
northward or northeastward toward the southeastern coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southeastern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Forecaster Brennan
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This thing better get to TS status just so we can get down the list and add to the numbers count. I can't believe we haven't gotten to M yet when I was thinking we'd be almost through the alphabet by now based on how strong this El Nino is and how active last season was despite the non-Nino.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
Strong El Niños doesn't necessarily mean an active season in the far eastern Pacific, same thing happen in '97.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
CaliforniaReas bsident wrote:This thing better get to TS status just so we can get down the list and add to the numbers count. I can't believe we haven't gotten to M yet when I was thinking we'd be almost through the alphabet by now based on how strong this El Nino is and how active last season was despite the non-Nino.
Strong or even moderate Ninos decrease activity east of 120W.
Number count doesn't mean much. Bottom line this is one of the better years the EPAC has produced still granted lots of the activity has been in CPAc.
Aside from 2014, 2015 has been the best E/CPAC season I've ever tracked.
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A low pressure system is expected to form late this week within a
large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from the coast of Central America southwestward into the eastern
Pacific for several hundred miles. The low is likely to develop
into a tropical depression by early next week several hundred miles
southwest or west-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and move
northward or northeastward toward the southern coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from the coast of Central America southwestward into the eastern
Pacific for several hundred miles. The low is likely to develop
into a tropical depression by early next week several hundred miles
southwest or west-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and move
northward or northeastward toward the southern coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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2. A broad area of low pressure appears to be forming several hundred
miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. This low is likely to
develop into a tropical depression by early next week and move
northward toward the southern coast of Mexico. Interests in that
region should monitor the progress of this disturbance during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. This low is likely to
develop into a tropical depression by early next week and move
northward toward the southern coast of Mexico. Interests in that
region should monitor the progress of this disturbance during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
That is for new invest 93E.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
cycloneye wrote::uarrow: That is for new invest 93E.
hmm, it is it seems. That's odd since the 30/80 has been on the TWO longer than this.
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- Extratropical94
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:CaliforniaReas bsident wrote:This thing better get to TS status just so we can get down the list and add to the numbers count. I can't believe we haven't gotten to M yet when I was thinking we'd be almost through the alphabet by now based on how strong this El Nino is and how active last season was despite the non-Nino.
Strong or even moderate Ninos decrease activity east of 120W.
Number count doesn't mean much. Bottom line this is one of the better years the EPAC has produced still granted lots of the activity has been in CPAc.
Aside from 2014, 2015 has been the best E/CPAC season I've ever tracked.
2015 had the triplets, is third most active ACE on record (when finished IMO). Sure not the amount of hurricanes etc as 2014 but quality has been superb. The ones that were trackable delivered. This has been an out of character El Nino season producing much more ACE than you would expect. One one major below 2014 which means the ones that did form got big in a hurry.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
Frank2 wrote:Any concern that 92E might cross the Isthmus and enter the BOC?
Frank
Doubt it. Too many mountains.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:CaliforniaReas bsident wrote:This thing better get to TS status just so we can get down the list and add to the numbers count. I can't believe we haven't gotten to M yet when I was thinking we'd be almost through the alphabet by now based on how strong this El Nino is and how active last season was despite the non-Nino.
Strong or even moderate Ninos decrease activity east of 120W.
Number count doesn't mean much. Bottom line this is one of the better years the EPAC has produced still granted lots of the activity has been in CPAc.
Aside from 2014, 2015 has been the best E/CPAC season I've ever tracked.
2015 had the triplets, is third most active ACE on record (when finished IMO). Sure not the amount of hurricanes etc as 2014 but quality has been superb. The ones that were trackable delivered. This has been an out of character El Nino season producing much more ACE than you would expect. One one major below 2014 which means the ones that did form got big in a hurry.
Agreed. Main reason for this activity aside from El Niño is the low shear and record SST's. Really the only bad thing about the season is the low named storm count in EPAC proper, but the CPAC activity and ACE have compensated for it.
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- Extratropical94
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92E INVEST 150925 1800 13.1N 91.4W EPAC 25 1006
An area of low pressure located just south of the coast of Guatemala
is producing showers and gusty winds over portions of southern
Guatemala and El Salvador, primarily near the coast. There has been
little change in organization today, and significant development of
this low appears unlikely due to its interaction with land while it
moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this system will continue to produce heavy rains over
portions of El Salvador, southern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico
during the next few days. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
An area of low pressure located just south of the coast of Guatemala
is producing showers and gusty winds over portions of southern
Guatemala and El Salvador, primarily near the coast. There has been
little change in organization today, and significant development of
this low appears unlikely due to its interaction with land while it
moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this system will continue to produce heavy rains over
portions of El Salvador, southern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico
during the next few days. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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