Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

2009/10 is a one in 40 year event . 1963-1964 is the other similar analog to 09/10. Maybe in 2040ish

Lol thats the other reason I'm ignoring it... I know chances of it happening again are virtually zero...

but even half the snow that happened that year would be a big year.

I guess what I noticed is that all the winters with 10+ inches of snow were el ninos... but there's also el nino's with zero snow... so it seems to be one extreme or another.

Heck I don't even know why I'm worried about winter right now... we gotta end summer first. which is proving to be a pain.

Actually this last winter was pretty snowy officially! 5.8 (half a foot) inches was second to only 2009/2010 had more in the past 30 years! You would have to go back to 1984-1985 for a year with more than 5 inches of snow at least in DFW proper.

The very cold 2013-2014 winter before only had 2.9 inches of snow+sleet

[TheProfessor]

2009/10 is a one in 40 year event . 1963-1964 is the other similar analog to 09/10. Maybe in 2040ish

Lol thats the other reason I'm ignoring it... I know chances of it happening again are virtually zero...

but even half the snow that happened that year would be a big year.

I guess what I noticed is that all the winters with 10+ inches of snow were el ninos... but there's also el nino's with zero snow... so it seems to be one extreme or another.

Heck I don't even know why I'm worried about winter right now... we gotta end summer first. which is proving to be a pain.

Actually this last winter was pretty snowy officially! 5.8 (half a foot) inches was second to only 2009/2010 had more in the past 30 years! You would have to go back to 1984-1985 for a year with more than 5 inches of snow at least in DFW proper.

The very cold 2013-2014 winter before only had 2.9 inches of snow+sleet

It's funny how I get more snow than DFW while only living just 10 minutes west (This is when I'm not in school) I measured about 5-6 inches of snow twice last year and during the ice storm in 2013 I measured about 4-5 inches of sleet as well. It seems like somewhere in Denton County always gets the storms worst.

[Ntxw]

It's funny how I get more snow than DFW while only living just 10 minutes west (This is when I'm not in school) I measured about 5-6 inches of snow twice last year and during the ice storm in 2013 I measured about 4-5 inches of sleet as well. It seems like somewhere in Denton County always gets the storms worst.

NWS is very specific on their measuring. We can stick a ruler in the snow and call it half a foot if it's near the 6 inch line but they are very methodical. It isn't measured by depth but by the hour and then wiped clean. Melting and compaction occurs after it is cleaned thus officially usually it's always less than what we measure. I live less than 10 mins from the actual spot in the airport and nearly every event my backyard is a good 1-2 inches from their measurements.

But generally you are correct the further north and west you are from the airport the more likelihood it is colder thus accumulate faster. 28-29F can make a big difference vs 31-32F in the inner urban core

[Brent]

2009/10 is a one in 40 year event . 1963-1964 is the other similar analog to 09/10. Maybe in 2040ish

Lol thats the other reason I'm ignoring it... I know chances of it happening again are virtually zero...

but even half the snow that happened that year would be a big year.

I guess what I noticed is that all the winters with 10+ inches of snow were el ninos... but there's also el nino's with zero snow... so it seems to be one extreme or another.

Heck I don't even know why I'm worried about winter right now... we gotta end summer first. which is proving to be a pain.

Actually this last winter was pretty snowy officially! 5.8 (half a foot) inches was second to only 2009/2010 had more in the past 30 years! You would have to go back to 1984-1985 for a year with more than 5 inches of snow at least in DFW proper.

The very cold 2013-2014 winter before only had 2.9 inches of snow+sleet

Right and we do live in the place that averages about 2" of snow a year... so...

I'm also from Alabama and can list a bunch of winters that produced no snow or ice there.

This boring pattern is just making me dig into climo more sorry.

[Ntxw]

Right and we do live in the place that averages about 2" of snow a year... so...

I'm also from Alabama and can list a bunch of winters that produced no snow or ice there.

This boring pattern is just making me dig into climo more sorry.

DFW is very lucky for it's location. It is on the same latitude roughly as Macon, Montgomery, and Charleston but sees much more frequent winter weather events. Every year since 1899 has recorded at least a trace (or at least one event) of snow/ice since records began. Most of those cities go years without any kind of frozen precipitation as you mentioned.

[Ntxw]

Latest Euro weeklies are out

Week 1: Warmer and dry
Week 2: Retrograding low (500mb weakness thunderstorms) from the northern gulf parks over Texas to end September
Week 3: Starts October with a deep trof and anomalous low heights (bowling ball storm) in the Southern Plains
Week 4: NW flow aloft cold fronts

[Brent]

Right and we do live in the place that averages about 2" of snow a year... so...

I'm also from Alabama and can list a bunch of winters that produced no snow or ice there.

This boring pattern is just making me dig into climo more sorry.

DFW is very lucky for it's location. It is on the same latitude roughly as Macon, Montgomery, and Charleston but sees much more frequent winter weather events. Every year since 1899 has recorded at least a trace (or at least one event) of snow/ice since records began. Most of those cities go years without any kind of frozen precipitation as you mentioned.

Yeah... I saw more snow my first winter here than I had in many winters in Alabama lol... true we had our storms there but it was usually one a season if we were lucky and never more than a couple inches total. Also, we were a lot less prone to temperature extremes(the 100s in the summer for weeks on end...) and the blue northers that occur here. One of the first things I actually noticed here on vacation in May 2014 before I lived here was how much more windy it is here too.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX had a post on Facebook.

[TheProfessor]

It's funny how I get more snow than DFW while only living just 10 minutes west (This is when I'm not in school) I measured about 5-6 inches of snow twice last year and during the ice storm in 2013 I measured about 4-5 inches of sleet as well. It seems like somewhere in Denton County always gets the storms worst.

NWS is very specific on their measuring. We can stick a ruler in the snow and call it half a foot if it's near the 6 inch line but they are very methodical. It isn't measured by depth but by the hour and then wiped clean. Melting and compaction occurs after it is cleaned thus officially usually it's always less than what we measure. I live less than 10 mins from the actual spot in the airport and nearly every event my backyard is a good 1-2 inches from their measurements.

But generally you are correct the further north and west you are from the airport the more likelihood it is colder thus accumulate faster. 28-29F can make a big difference vs 31-32F in the inner urban core

Yeah that's another thing that happens here, since my house is in an area that's mostly woods or open field out temperatures are sometimes 5 degrees colder than DFW's during the winter time. So the snow starts Earlier for us.

[Ntxw]

These models are comical. After days earlier this week the Euro had a wet day Sunday with low to mid 80s, GFS was hot and dry. Now the GFS is low to mid 80s with some rain while the Euro is hot and dry....not even a 7 day forecast

One thing for sure next week winds will mostly be from the east or ene. Dews will be lower and the near 90 highs will feel nicer than this week.

[TarrantWx]

I've been watching teleconnections this summer and have noticed the the AO and NAO have been hard pressed to go positive. Is this a harbinger of what we can expect this Winter or is it too early to tell just yet? Also, the PNA is about to go extremely negative - 2 to 4 SD's below normal - what, if any, effect will that have on weather here?

[dhweather]

It's funny how I get more snow than DFW while only living just 10 minutes west (This is when I'm not in school) I measured about 5-6 inches of snow twice last year and during the ice storm in 2013 I measured about 4-5 inches of sleet as well. It seems like somewhere in Denton County always gets the storms worst.

It's not just you - on radar I've observed the same phenomena regarding Denton County and all precipitation. For whatever reason, Denton County, often seems to get more precipitation, be it thunderstorms, showers, sleet, snow. Is it simply geography? Perhaps effects from the Tarrant/Dallas heat island? Plain old luck? I don't know, but you are correct.

[TheProfessor]

It's funny how I get more snow than DFW while only living just 10 minutes west (This is when I'm not in school) I measured about 5-6 inches of snow twice last year and during the ice storm in 2013 I measured about 4-5 inches of sleet as well. It seems like somewhere in Denton County always gets the storms worst.

It's not just you - on radar I've observed the same phenomena regarding Denton County and all precipitation. For whatever reason, Denton County, often seems to get more precipitation, be it thunderstorms, showers, sleet, snow. Is it simply geography? Perhaps effects from the Tarrant/Dallas heat island? Plain old luck? I don't know, but you are correct.

We have 3 lakes in the county, though they're way to small to create lake effect snow themselves except in very rare events where they have created flurries, perhaps they add more moisture in the air when the North Winds come in the winter? Otherwise I'm not sure. Parts of Collin County seems to get hit hard on some storms too, it seems like the higher banding totals like to line up in a Northeast or East-Northeast fashion stretching from Denton to Collin County.

[dhweather]

I thought this was interesting - as bad as 2011 was, at its worst, Lake Lavon fell to levels that the lake was at for practically all of 2014.

[Ntxw]

thats what made 2011 so bad. It started higher but lost an incredible volume in just a few months. 2014 was already preconditioned for years (thanks to 2011) to start and end low. 2011 did this statewide, region wide. Nothing this year even is remotely close

To go from normal lake levels to historic lows in one year is not easy, 2011 was a trifecta of soil drought, atmospheric drought, and immense evaporation of the water source systems

[gboudx]

We have 3 lakes in the county, though they're way to small to create lake effect snow themselves except in very rare events where they have created flurries, perhaps they add more moisture in the air when the North Winds come in the winter? Otherwise I'm not sure. Parts of Collin County seems to get hit hard on some storms too, it seems like the higher banding totals like to line up in a Northeast or East-Northeast fashion stretching from Denton to Collin County.

Ray Hubbard and Lavon created lake effect flurries not long ago. I saved the NWS graphic when it happened because it is rare.

[weatherdude1108]

I guess there (possibly) may be a delay of above normal rains until Winter. My yard is cracked and could really use above normal precipitation. EWX had another image and write up on FB.

US National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio Texas

The Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 95% chance that El Nino conditions will persist through at least winter 2015-16, Considering it will likely be a "strong" El Nino, we took a quick look at South Central Texas rainfall during the five strongest El Nino episodes since 1950. Although wintertime precipitation over South Central Texas averaged much greater than normal during these episodes, fall precipitation actually averaged closer to normal. Thus, do not be surprised if the wetter than normal conditions hold off for a little bit longer....
Timeline Photos · 1 hour ago

[aggiecutter]

I would expect there will be a lot of severe weather(Tornadoes-Severe Thunderstorms) during mid-late fall and the early winter months.

[TheProfessor]

Wasn't there an EF-4 somewhere in Texas in December 2009?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

:uarrow: thats what made 2011 so bad. It started higher but lost an incredible volume in just a few months. 2014 was already preconditioned for years (thanks to 2011) to start and end low. 2011 did this statewide, region wide. Nothing this year even is remotely close

To go from normal lake levels to historic lows in one year is not easy, 2011 was a trifecta of soil drought, atmospheric drought, and immense evaporation of the water source systems

If I remember right...2011 is also about when Ray Hubbard was taken offline for drinking water because of the zebra mussels.