2015 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Lot's of low pressure shown by the GFS in the EPAC:

[Yellow Evan]

KW moving into the area around that time so it makes sense for something in the CPAC/SW EPAC to get going.

[cycloneye]

Looks like EPAC will take a break for a while.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 1h1 hour ago
@EricBlake12 @MJVentrice looks like the EPAC might be taking the next 2-weeks off.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 13m13 minutes ago
@MJVentrice @RyanMaue surprised the CCKW did zero in EPac. Even very surprised. No idea why it was ineffective

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like EPAC will take a break for a while.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 1h1 hour ago
@EricBlake12 @MJVentrice looks like the EPAC might be taking the next 2-weeks off.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 13m13 minutes ago
@MJVentrice @RyanMaue surprised the CCKW did zero in EPac. Even very surprised. No idea why it was ineffective

I don't get Blake's second tweet as the CCKW gave us all the systems we had the past few weeks.

Basically the cycle is re-starting itself. It's the WPAC's turn next, then the C/EPAC. ECMWF brings a CCKW past 180 in about 8-10 days.

[Extratropical94]

Not sure if this belongs here or in the 90E thread as this is the area that was 90E but has no designation now.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with a weak area of low
pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible by
this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[CaliforniaResident]

Looks like we might not even make it to "M" by the end of the month; no expected EPAC formation in site for the next 5 days. TD 16 was a disappointment to me in two ways; it didn't add the count by making it to TS status and it failed to deliver any badly needed rain to us; what was once forecast to be an inch or two of rain to San Diego turned out to be just some clouds and humidity instead. Pathetic, pathetic, pathetic.

Is there any glimmer of hope for more EPAC activity in the long range? I don't see it in the GFS or Euro models.

[Yellow Evan]

1. An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
the south coast of Mexico by late this week. Some slow development
is possible thereafter while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like we might not even make it to "M" by the end of the month; no expected EPAC formation in site for the next 5 days. TD 16 was a disappointment to me in two ways; it didn't add the count by making it to TS status and it failed to deliver any badly needed rain to us; what was once forecast to be an inch or two of rain to San Diego turned out to be just some clouds and humidity instead. Pathetic, pathetic, pathetic.

Is there any glimmer of hope for more EPAC activity in the long range? I don't see it in the GFS or Euro models.

Decent chance we get something in around a week, maybe two systems as suggested by the NASA and EPS products.

[cycloneye]

This area may be a flooding and mudslide producer for parts of Mexico/CentralAmerica.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week.
Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression could form by early next week while the low moves slowly
northward or northeastward toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

Now invest 92E.

[CaliforniaResident]

I wonder if October will be unusually active considering the SST are still at their peak with no sign of declining as we head past the equinox. I'm hoping we can brew up at least 5 more storms before the season is up.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder if October will be unusually active considering the SST are still at their peak with no sign of declining as we head past the equinox. I'm hoping we can brew up at least 5 more storms before the season is up.

I'm not sure. +IOD would have an early retreat of the ITCZ. Westerlies should start to pick up soon with the subtropical jet this low.

We should get a few more storms, however.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure could form early next week about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Some gradual development of this system is possible later next week
while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

GFS develops this and moves this NW but keeps it offshore. NOGAPS develops this and has it hitting Mexico by day 8, but it's the NOGAPS.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure could form early next week about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Any development of this system later next week should be slow to
occur while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the next
couple of days from a surface trough located about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of
this system by the middle of the week while it moves slowly
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form within an elongated
surface trough several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the low moves east-northeastward to
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Extratropical94]

Up to 20/80

An area of low pressure is expected to form within an elongated
surface trough several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
the development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later this week while the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%/90%

An area of low pressure is expected to form within an elongated
surface trough several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later this week while the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Extratropical94]

40/90

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form within an elongated
surface trough several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low remains nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

I wonder why this is still not a invest?

11 AM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to form within an elongated
surface trough several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent