Texas Fall-2015

[TheProfessor]

So, you are seeing less than 9 days...hum....I do think this is the last vestige of Summer coming up.

Hot is relative, normal now is in the upper 80s so 92-96 would be hot.

From everything I see, October will be cold (relative to normal). It's one of the strongest monthly signals I can recall in awhile on a consensus. We'll probably see some good fall colors this year compared to last year.

Some models are predicting snows in Siberia and Alaska to start accumulating sooner than usual too. Oh and fall colors have already begun here too. I've never seen so many squirrels at once in my life, they're hilarious too, they always have an acorn in their mouths while they chase each other.

[Tireman4]

So, you are seeing less than 9 days...hum....I do think this is the last vestige of Summer coming up.

Hot is relative, normal now is in the upper 80s so 92-96 would be hot.

From everything I see, October will be cold (relative to normal). It's one of the strongest monthly signals I can recall in awhile on a consensus. We'll probably see some good fall colors this year compared to last year.

Some models are predicting snows in Siberia and Alaska to start accumulating sooner than usual too. Oh and fall colors have already begun here too. I've never seen so many squirrels at once in my life, they're hilarious too, they always have an acorn in their mouths while they chase each other.

Make sure they do not chase you sir..

[TheProfessor]

lol none have chase me so far, but there was a squirrel who thought he was spiderman and was running on the wall of a building, and then another was trying to get inside a building.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: lol none have chase me so far, but there was a squirrel who thought he was spiderman and was running on the wall of a building, and then another was trying to get inside a building.

Ahh maybe they are excited about the football team. Will you are partake in a game sir? Back to weather..are you taking Met 101? Also, keep us apprised of all weather Columbus..

[TheProfessor]

Yes I will be going to 3 of the game, and no I'm not in Met 101, but I am on the schools forecasting team and we have have close ties with Dr. Ariel Cohen of Storm Prediction Center, he's a former Alum, I got to join in on a conference call with him 2 weeks ago.

[Portastorm]

Looks like wxman57 got a hold of the GFS operational runs for the last day or so ... that late month cold front has disappeared.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Yes I will be going to 3 of the game, and no I'm not in Met 101, but I am on the schools forecasting team and we have have close ties with Dr. Ariel Cohen of Storm Prediction Center, he's a former Alum, I got to join in on a conference call with him 2 weeks ago.

Off topic but if you haven't been yet ... you need to go "The Dube." Ask the locals if you don't know where it is ... it's a diner close to campus and it's awesome!

[Ntxw]

Actually it doesn't feel that oppressive at all right now. I thought it would be sunny and gradually getting warmer but the skies went overcast. Seems like cloud deck has crawled up the eastern half of the state. GFS had 20-40% cloud cover, it's currently more like 80-100% here.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: Yes I will be going to 3 of the game, and no I'm not in Met 101, but I am on the schools forecasting team and we have have close ties with Dr. Ariel Cohen of Storm Prediction Center, he's a former Alum, I got to join in on a conference call with him 2 weeks ago.

Off topic but if you haven't been yet ... you need to go "The Dube." Ask the locals if you don't know where it is ... it's a diner close to campus and it's awesome!

I'll have to check it out, thanks!

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Yes I will be going to 3 of the game, and no I'm not in Met 101, but I am on the schools forecasting team and we have have close ties with Dr. Ariel Cohen of Storm Prediction Center, he's a former Alum, I got to join in on a conference call with him 2 weeks ago.

Off topic but if you haven't been yet ... you need to go "The Dube." Ask the locals if you don't know where it is ... it's a diner close to campus and it's awesome!

I'll have to check it out, thanks!

The official name is the Blue Danube but everyone just calls it "The Dube."

Glad to hear all is going well up there for you. Do your best to funnel cold air and snow down this-a-way!

[Ntxw]

Some models are predicting snows in Siberia and Alaska to start accumulating sooner than usual too. Oh and fall colors have already begun here too. I've never seen so many squirrels at once in my life, they're hilarious too, they always have an acorn in their mouths while they chase each other.

I haven't checked the snow cover until you mentioned it!

Will be interesting to see your posts on weather up there this winter. El Nino's feature warmer and drier than normal winters in the midwest (Ohio included), I bet the folks up there will love that, they love mild weather in winter.

Don't let that discourage you though, a less snow than normal year in Columbus is like 15 inches vs 30. You should keep a watch for Lake enhanced snows, I know Cleveland is more inclined to lake effect but down stream often a small event can be boosted by streaming lake moisture.

[TheProfessor]

Some models are predicting snows in Siberia and Alaska to start accumulating sooner than usual too. Oh and fall colors have already begun here too. I've never seen so many squirrels at once in my life, they're hilarious too, they always have an acorn in their mouths while they chase each other.

I haven't checked the snow cover until you mentioned it!

Will be interesting to see your posts on weather up there this winter. El Nino's feature warmer and drier than normal winters in the midwest (Ohio included), I bet the folks up there will love that, they love mild weather in winter.

Don't let that discourage you though, a less snow than normal year in Columbus is like 15 inches vs 30. You should keep a watch for Lake enhanced snows, I know Cleveland is more inclined to lake effect but down stream often a small event can be boosted by streaming lake moisture.

Funny you mention that, a lot of the Midwest weather enthusiast love the winters here, A lot of them don't think it will be a typical El Nino because the NE Pacific is still fairly warm and it looks like the NAO could stay negative this year, they think it could be like the last couple of winters where winter starts late, but then in January they get hit hard until March. This is fine with me because I will be spending most of December and Parts of January back home in Texas. I'm hoping for a repeat of Christmas eve 2009.

[Ntxw]

Funny you mention that, a lot of the Midwest weather enthusiast love the winters here, A lot of them don't think it will be a typical El Nino because the NE Pacific is still fairly warm and it looks like the NAO could stay negative this year, they think it could be like the last couple of winters where winter starts late, but then in January they get hit hard until March. This is fine with me because I will be spending most of December and Parts of January back home in Texas. I'm hoping for a repeat of Christmas eve 2009.

They definitely do not want a -NAO! That keeps storms suppressed to the south and east. 2013 was a very snowy and cold winter for Columbus and +NAO driven with -EPO. That's the best combo up there. Ridging in Hudson bay when it shifts south with the -NAO is a warm block up there. Blocking is good for the south and east but not the north.

We also expect lots of pictures of snow and ice, Portastorm needs to live precariously through you given the dome over Austin

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Back to why Houston reached 59F before AUS and DFW, the cold front that came through didnt come down the lee side of the Rockies like we are used to or what is what we would prefer down here in Texas. It was a very East coast based cold front.

[CaptinCrunch]

Ntxw,

You brought up a good point on the normal temps heading into the 2nd half of September. From the 15th on out normal highs will range from 89 now down to 83 by months end. (see chart) http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dfw09nrm

We will also shave off 21 min of daylight by September 30th as the Sun will be sitting by 7:14pm

EDIT: For those who like webcams http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam the Barrow AK sea ice webcam (and I can see Russia from my house) LMAO.....

Mount Washington for you east coast peeps.
https://www.mountwashington.org/premium-content/webcam-videos/observation-deck.aspx

[Ntxw]

Up in the arctic circle, it is perpetual twilight right now as the sun is in limbo across the horizon essentially a prolonged sun set for two weeks. By the end of the month it will remain dark until the Vernal Equinox.

And temperatures up there will reflect it as the Polar Vortex (the real one) sets up shop and expands cold air. Winter is coming

Currently



By the end of the month



If you squint and look closely south and east of Japan you will see a typhoon on the Euro recurving and Aleutian low forming. If they hook up, a piece of the blues/greens from the Arctic circle would break off and forced south would be the next major front as the wavelengths sharpen.

[Ntxw]

Something off topic from Texas. I posted this in the ENSO thread, Los Angeles got 2 inches of rain today. The entire summer their average is less than half an inch. Earlier in the summer July was one of the wettest for many SoCal cities including LA and San Diego. This is the real deal El Nino, I mentioned earlier in the year it ended Texas and Oklahoma's multi-year drought and it can do the same in California if the cards fall right quickly.

[Ralph's Weather]

Clouds are still hanging on though temps are rising as they are thin. I am loving the discussions going on about the upcoming fall and winter and I will have to start looking into myself as soon as work gets less busy.

[Ntxw]

It's going to be an interesting case this weekend especially for the northern and western half of the state. GFS maintains the front will stall to the NW and no rain or cool down. Euro has it very close by and on one side will be 70s and low 80s with clouds and rain while the other side low 90s and dry. There's huge bust potential for either call and this is not even a 7+ day forecast.

[Tireman4]

But the front I am talking about is next week, right..one that goes through Houston?