ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Up to 80%-90%
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day
or two while it moves generally northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day
or two while it moves generally northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
00z Best Track:
AL, 93, 2015091400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 364W, 25, 1011, LO
AL, 93, 2015091400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 364W, 25, 1011, LO
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Looking at the floater, still looks like the movement is west with no sign of a turn yet. It also looks slightly less organized and more elongated though deep convection continues to fire. If this thing is developing like the models say it will, we should start to see it trying to lift out of the ITCZ within the next 24 hours or so. I think the models might be trying to spin it up and eject it too quickly.
0 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
gatorcane wrote:Looking at the floater, still looks like the movement is west with no sign of a turn yet. It also looks slightly less organized and more elongated though deep convection continues to fire. If this thing is developing like the models say it will, we should start to see it trying to lift out of the ITCZ within the next 24 hours or so. I think the models might be trying to spin it up and eject it too quickly.
http://i.imgur.com/oKEW1fP.gif
Gatorcane thanks your bright input... as usual . That's always a pleasure to read your analysis. Oh the models this year... we should take them carefully especially when we discover this surprising cane season. We don't know what Mother Nature has in store. We should stay and maintain the wait and see mode at least for now .
0 likes
- ScottNAtlanta
- Category 5
- Posts: 2014
- Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
- Location: Atlanta, GA
I dont see where the weakness lies that this is supposed to go through. It looks like it has passed it
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 34
- Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:14 am
- Location: St Kitts, Lesser Antilles
Re:
gatorcane wrote:The wave out in front of this one looks to be losing convection quite rapidly. The convection envelope around this wave seems to be eroding too the farther west it gets. I wonder if the ECMWF's prediction of this NOT developing may just be a possibility?
This is the one out front, isn't it?
0 likes
Re: Re:
lordkev wrote:gatorcane wrote:The wave out in front of this one looks to be losing convection quite rapidly. The convection envelope around this wave seems to be eroding too the farther west it gets. I wonder if the ECMWF's prediction of this NOT developing may just be a possibility?
This is the one out front, isn't it?
This is the eastern one, the other is around 45-50W.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
40W is where it starts to lift out WNW to NW out of of the ITCZ. It is forecast to start in 12hrs from now.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
This very likely won't develop, it's getting more and more stretched out east-west and the shear is already 20+ kts and increasing.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
A well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing minimal shower
activity. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and this system could still become a
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves
generally northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing minimal shower
activity. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and this system could still become a
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves
generally northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
This invest looks bad. Talk about a near poof overnight though the signs it could poof were there. It is barely hanging on this morning. Might still make a run at a td or ts but the hurricane potential is decreasing.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: Re:
NDG wrote:Hammy wrote:This very likely won't develop, it's getting more and more stretched out east-west and the shear is already 20+ kts and increasing.
Good call, it looks like crap this morning.
[img ]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/B08D8B9E-A5BD-4955-B38B-B9113111021E_zps6ms5rwck.gif[/img]
It may look like crap convection wise but it still has a very healthy looking spin IMO.
0 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
gatorcane wrote:This invest looks bad. Talk about a near poof overnight though the signs it could poof were there. It is barely hanging on this morning. Might still make a run at a td or ts but the hurricane potential is decreasing.
Looks like.... So do you think that it could track slight more west than anticipated?
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22506
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
This disturbance doesn't present the appearance of a tropical depression/storm that's about to develop. It's looked bad for days. I haven't understood the NHC jumping all over this.
0 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:This disturbance doesn't present the appearance of a tropical depression/storm that's about to develop. It's looked bad for days. I haven't understood the NHC jumping all over this.
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/93L.gif
Maybe they are seeing things we don't see wxman57?! But agree that this feature has trouble to spin up for now. Wait and see...
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests