Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

and ugh... what happened to the big cool down next weekend? We've gone from highs close to 80 to highs around 90. *shrugs* Bordering on just a less hot front again instead of fall.

I think it's because they are aiming it more to the east and we are in NW flow, still cooler though. Also if there is any kind of tropical surge or system coming up that's not a cooling entity. Tropical systems transports heat from the tropics after passage. Euro is still showing low to mid 80s next weekend and middle 60s for lows

[Rgv20]

NWS afternoon discussion out of Brownsville....Come on Rain!

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STARTING THURSDAY AS ECMWF
RUN PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WHILE GFS HAS A SLOWER
PROGRESSION. ECMWF IS MUCH HIGHER WITH POP/QPE THAN THE GFS 12Z
RUN. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHICH DECIDED TO
LEAN MORE ON THE LOWER END OF THE GFS FOR POPS RIGHT NOW. WE WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT IS THE TREND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THIS PATTERN
COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE RGV. ON DAYS 3
AND 4 LEAN A BIT LOWER AS WE WILL STILL BE TRANSITIONING AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS GRADUALLY WEST.

[Brent]

Number 15 for 100 at DFW...

come on front!

Amazing to me we've gone from the consistency of having highs around 80 to now around 90...

[Tireman4]

Please front. I.am begging you. 102 degree heat index...ughh

[Ntxw]

100 in September is just wrong...15...lived here all my life and still can't tolerate it. Thursday can't come soon enough.

[Tireman4]

Where is the front emanating from...Pacific, I bet?.

[Brent]

100 in September is just wrong...15...lived here all my life and still can't tolerate it. Thursday can't come soon enough.

lol everyone keeps telling me when I complain about summer that this year hasn't been "that bad". Well sorry but I'm a summer hater to start. and it's September and we're in a fall thread... it needs to start acting like it.

I'm having to laugh at WFAA having 90 on Saturday and CBS 11 having 83 on Saturday. To me that's a huge difference... 83 sounds good... 90 is just less hot.

[Tireman4]

Oh no...Brent....I hear ya. Look at my posts the past 9 years. There has not been one pro Summer post. I hate it. I loathe it. If it were dry, it is tolerable, but the 75-76 degree dewpoints are ridiculous..

[Brent]

Oh no...Brent....I hear ya. Look at my posts the past 9 years. There has not been one pro Summer post. I hate it. I loathe it. If it were dry, it is tolerable, but the 75-76 degree dewpoints are ridiculous..

Hey I'm from Alabama... I'm used to it being 95/75 all the time(100+ was pretty rare)... but I'm also used to it raining almost everyday in the summer at least somewhere nearby.

[aggiecutter]

Our week two weather could begin with a tropical disturbance that models indicate could develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and move through the Arklatex. It is way too early to talk intensity or whether or not we'll even see a tropical depression or storm, but models agree we could see some decent rain. The rest of the week 2 weather is looking close to normal with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. --Todd Warren

[Ntxw]

100 in September is just wrong...15...lived here all my life and still can't tolerate it. Thursday can't come soon enough.

lol everyone keeps telling me when I complain about summer that this year hasn't been "that bad". Well sorry but I'm a summer hater to start. and it's September and we're in a fall thread... it needs to start acting like it.

I'm having to laugh at WFAA having 90 on Saturday and CBS 11 having 83 on Saturday. To me that's a huge difference... 83 sounds good... 90 is just less hot.

It hasn't been that bad statistically but I think what makes it feel worse is the lack of rainfall. This is what it is like most summers around here. At least a few late evening summer thunderstorms would be nice and refreshing then it can be hot again the next day but hardly much of that this summer. Normal value this time of year now is around 90-91. 2015...summer was delayed but not denied.

[Brent]

100 in September is just wrong...15...lived here all my life and still can't tolerate it. Thursday can't come soon enough.

lol everyone keeps telling me when I complain about summer that this year hasn't been "that bad". Well sorry but I'm a summer hater to start. and it's September and we're in a fall thread... it needs to start acting like it.

I'm having to laugh at WFAA having 90 on Saturday and CBS 11 having 83 on Saturday. To me that's a huge difference... 83 sounds good... 90 is just less hot.

It hasn't been that bad statistically but I think what makes it feel worse is the lack of rainfall. This is what it is like most summers around here. At least a few late evening summer thunderstorms would be nice and refreshing then it can be hot again the next day but hardly much of that this summer. Normal value this time of year now is around 90-91. 2015...summer was delayed but not denied.

I think I got in this mindset that because of the strong el nino it would have been not as many 100's... but this year hasn't had a crazy amount(technically still below average), although I was hoping for a year with like a single digit amount, especially when it took til almost August to get any, but yeah the lack of rain and the humidity we had most of the summer since late July is what has made it feel worse.

[Brent]

Wow the AFD actually has paragraphs... lots of paragraphs... and a mention of the tropics!

But first...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A BROAD TROPICAL MID
LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER MOBILE AL DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS BEING HELD UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...BUT
WILL START PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT TOWARD NORTH
TEXAS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE.

A WEAKER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NM WILL MOVE EAST INTO
OK TODAY BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER
KS LATER TODAY. A FEW POP UP STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THESE AREAS MAY SEE THE
TAIL END OF FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE AT PEAK HEATING. SIMILAR TO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THIS PAST WEEK BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSIST FROM ANY STORM
OUTFLOW OCCURRING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. THESE LIFTING MECHANISMS
WILL ALL INTERACT WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES MOST AREAS...THOUGH A
ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE STRONGEST THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT AND TIME
OF DAY WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORMS FROM GETTING TOO STRONG OR
INTENSE...THOUGH CERTAINLY A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SOME GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE BEST
WINDOW FOR STRONG STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
RESULT IN STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MORNING
STORM COMPLEX.

THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK /THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IF
ANY THERMAL PROPERTIES AND WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY STORM OUTFLOW
THAN ANYTHING ELSE. TO ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NAM SOLUTION
SEEMS QUITE ODD IN HAVING STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY HANGING OVER
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH WEAKER NORTHWEST
MID LEVEL FLOW. OTHER MODELS DO NOT AGREE AND HAVE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR AREA WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES SHIFTING DOWN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
COAST. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED
TO GO WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION BUT IT/S ANYONE/S GUESS WHERE AND
WHEN THIS FRONT STALLS OR WASHES OUT. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS AROUND 90S VERSUS
NEAR 100.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES DOWN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ASSIST A SLIGHTLY STRONGER...BUT
DRIER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT IN SATURDAY. THE EC
IS STRONG WITH BOTH FEATURES VERSUS THE GFS...BUT EITHER WAY IT
SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. BEYOND THE WEEKEND IS PROBLEMATIC AS THE USUAL MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW. ABOUT THE ONLY THING FOR
CERTAIN WILL BE A RETURN OF THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH MAINLY LOW DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEXT WEEK. THE EC DOES SHOW A POSSIBLE LATE
SEASON TROPICAL SYSTEM ORGANIZING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...IT/S SOMETHING THAT
BEARS WATCHING BUT IS SOMETHING THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT.

05/

&&

[gpsnowman]

One more day of the heat and then rain and cooler weather. Finally!! Good luck to all seeing lots of liquid gold.

[weatherdude1108]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
410 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

ONE HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH 8-9AM.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ON QUEUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE
PATCHINESS OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN LOCAL AREAS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR FOG
FORMATION NOW THROUGH 8-9AM. MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE SE COASTAL PLAINS TOWARDS LA GRANGE
TO GONZALES AND VICTORIA. WINDS HAVE JUST GONE CALM AT THESE
OBSERVATION SITES AND THIS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE FALLEN TO 1-2F. WHAT FOG
DOES DEVELOP WITH MIX OUT QUICKLY THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SHIFTING WEST ALONG THE MS/LA GULF
COAST TOWARDS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TODAYS OVERALL WEATHER. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOW WITH MAX VALUES OF 700-1000 J/KG ALONG THE SE COUNTIES THAT
MAY ONLY SET OFF A FEW SEA-BREEZE AIDED SHOWERS. MEAN-WHILE...A
LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR WEDENSDAY`S WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

BY WED MORNING...THE WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO
NORTH TEXAS ALONG WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT APPEARS THIS
COMPLEX ITSELF MAY NOT MAKE IT DOWN TO THE REGION AS IT WEAKENS BUT
IMPLIED LOW-LVL CONVERGENT OUTFLOW SHOULD REACH NORTHERN AREAS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDED DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM THE ASSOCIATED
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH 600-1200 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR THE MOST DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AREA HAS SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS. HAVE
PLACED 50-60% RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AND TAPERING DOWN TO 30-40% SOUTHWARD. PWATS WILL
BE 1.8-2.1" AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT LOCALIZED RAINFALL.
OVERALL LAPSE RATES OF 5-6 C/KM AND LOWER SHOWALTERS AND VERTICAL
TOTALS DO NOT SUGGEST GREAT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AT THIS TIME. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30-50 MPH COULD
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...THE RISK FOR HAIL LOOKS RATHER LOW. ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND LIKELY ONLY
MARGINALLY STRONG. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS MARGINALITY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

MAIN FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AT LEAST
40-50% CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE
PLAUSIBLE FOR NORTH AND EASTERN AREAS.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. THESE FEATURES
COUPLED WITH ADDED 300MB JET STREAK OF 50 KT AND WEAK INSTABILITY
OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. BEST COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE NORTH AND
EAST ALONG A ELEVATED 850-700MB BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
STILL BE POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF SOME STORMS OCCUR BUT AGAIN...
OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE DOES NOT LOOK GREAT FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE WIND OR HAIL THREATS AT THIS TIME. SOME GUSTY
WINDS OF 30-50 MPH COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME REALIZED CAPE AND DCAPE COMBO AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR IS FORCED IN THE FROM NW IN THE MID-LVLS.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH THE EC/UKMET AND GEM. THE GFS REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO CUT-
OFF THE TROUGH WITH THE OTHER THREE MODELS MENTIONED BEING MORE
PROGRESSIVE. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW WEAK SUPPORT FOR THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THANKS TO A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST. HAVE
DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS PERIOD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

INTERESTINGLY...THE EC FESTERS A MID-LVL LOW OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THAT EVENTUALLY BECOMES SURFACE BASED FOR POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS SOLUTION
AND THIS WILL TO BE WATCHED IF ANYTHING BECOMES OF THIS SIGNAL.

[Rgv20]

Took a quick look at the 0zECMWF Ensembles & Control Run and none of them show a Low in the GOM in the 9-10 days time frame where the operational has it. 6zGFS again tries to hint at a low pressure system by early next week but quickly moves it NNW hugging the coast of Mexico/Texas.

[Tireman4]

This morning's AFD from HGX:
DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE GETTING PICKED UP ON RADAR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SLOWLY
DECREASING AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS AREAS GENERALLY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE HOWEVER. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAD SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST
/EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE/ AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF RETROGRADES CLOSER TO THE
REGION.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INLAND FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND
GENERALLY COVERING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR WITH THE HIGHEST /30/ POPS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED... BUT MOISTURE WILL BE THE BIG FACTOR IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING /1.4 TO 1.6 INCH
PWATS AS OPPOSED TO THE ALMOST 2 INCH PWATS IN PLACE OVER THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND/. HIGHLIGHTING LOWER POPS /10-20/ NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON METRO IN RESPONSE. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DRIER SUB-CLOUD
AIR IN PLACE AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND. FOR TONIGHT... ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWING A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT... POSSIBLY PUSHING REMNANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE REGION WITH IT. AT THE SAME
TIME... A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH FROM THE GULF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY OR HOW FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EITHER OF THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE... HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD 40
POPS DURING THE DAY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MINIMUM IN
COVERAGE ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EVEN MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY MESSY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND BEYOND. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A REINFORCING FRONT REACHES THE REGION
SATURDAY... PUSHING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE
TRENDED DOWN RAIN CHANCES IN RESPONSE FOR THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
PERIOD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FALLING UNDER 1.5 INCHES /SOME SITES DIPPING TO NEAR 1 INCH/. IF
THIS DRIER TREND CONTINUES... POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OFFERING LITTLE CHANCE FOR
MOISTURE RETURN.

HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK... BOTH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN
MEXICO COAST BUT VARY WILDLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE.
THE GFS IS TRENDING SLOWER BUT MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT TRACK
TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST... WHILE BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z EUROPEAN
TRACK IT FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE SOLUTIONS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ARE CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH
BUT VARIABILITY IN THE SOLUTIONS OFFERS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SEAS
REMAINING UNDER 3 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO AND EJECTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COASTLINE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 76 93 75 89 / 10 10 40 50 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 94 75 91 75 89 / 30 10 40 30 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 80 88 80 87 / 20 10 40 30 50

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram for Bush airport (Houston) that I made from the 6Z GFS. Some quite cold air coming in Sunday! Lows in the low 60s by Monday. Highs in the lower 80s. Dewpoints into the mid 40s. It's a sad time of year for a heat-mongerer...

[Tireman4]

Here's a meteogram for Bush airport (Houston) that I made from the 6Z GFS. Some quite cold air coming in Sunday! Lows in the low 60s by Monday. Highs in the lower 80s. Dewpoints into the mid 40s. It's a sad time of year for a heat-mongerer...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6zsep8.gif

Hallelujah and praise Mother Nature. Come on...I am so tired of this yuck....

[wxman57]

12Z GFS isn't as cool with the highs early next week. Still the upper 80s for highs, but 63 on Monday morning.