![Image](http://i.imgur.com/flxqRMv.gif)
WTPN21 PGTW 060500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.3N 139.9E TO 25.2N 137.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
060430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N
139.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3N
141.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.7E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 060047Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 052354Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS (20 TO 25
KNOTS) OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND MUCH WEAKER (10 KNOTS)
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM'S CENTER, NEAR
22N 141E, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070500Z.//
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