ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

The ULL has drifted east/northeast the past 12-24 hours, with the ULL now over Southern AL/FL Panhandle region. Yesterday, it was over New Orleans/Mississippi coast region. The ULL has now bought in some drier air from the west, as sern on WV imagery, which has worked in across.the Florida Panhandle and now into portions of North Florida this morning. Looks as for right now the rains will stay confined across the Central and South Florida. The rain will come back big time across North Florida on Monday when thr trough axis lifts back to the north, combined with Erika's remnants. Wet times ahead this week.

[babycane]

The sunrise in Miami today was so creepy, a bright red sky... looked apocalyptic. We should be getting some more rain later, but I think the worst has passed for us overnight. What a night!

[NDG]

Lots of tropical moisture around 90L this morning, the NHC fixed the remnant vorticity of Erika at 24.7N & 82.4W, just W of Key West, at 12z. The ULL over the north central gulf coast is forecasted to move northward today so UL conditions are forecasted to improve a little starting this afternoon through Tuesday over the eastern GOM, if the vorticity stays offshore through Tuesday it may have chance to redevelop before moving inland over the big bend area of the FL Panhandle by then. Big rains for FL is a sure bet whether it redevelops or not.



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[northjaxpro]

Yes NDG there will be an impressive moisture surge. The next 48-72 hours across the peninsula. I am very curious about that deep moisture down south of Cuba.

[Weatherlover12]

We are getting a lot of much needed rain down in central FLm
But I'm wondering about the blob south of Cuba? It's curious and is that separate from Erika?

[NDG]

We are getting a lot of much needed rain down in central FLm
But I'm wondering about the blob south of Cuba? It's curious and is that separate from Erika?

That's all Erika's remnants, some mid level energy lagging behind her LL vorticity.

[SouthFloridawx]

Discussion from Melbourne NWS made me laugh this morning while having my coffee.

MON-TUE...WET PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MON AS REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM WHAT WAS ERIKA TRANSITIONS TO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO WHILE SEARCHING FOR DIRECTION AND PURPOSE. THERE DOES REMAIN
SOME VERY MODEST OPPORTUNITY FOR REGENERATION...BUT MUCH WOULD
DEPEND UPON THE UPPER WINDS AND FORTUNE. EVEN SO...ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWATS (EVEN FOR AUG/SEP) ARE THE LOCAL CONCERN AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN CONTINUES WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME PULLED N. CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS SKEWED TOWARD THE W
PENINSULA CLOSER TO FEATURE...BUT SIMPLY CANNOT DOWNPLAY THREAT IN
THE PRESENCE OF 2.3 INCHES OF PWAT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

Haha

[Nimbus]

Lowest pressure at 7 am was Key West Int at 29.87 in with SE winds at 20 mph.

What are we witnessing in that ball of convection south of Cuba?

I mentioned that earlier this morning, the system was split by the mountains and there is an area of shallow surface pressure south of Cuba pumping convection.

Looking at the visible pics this morning there does appear to be some lower level cloud movement below the mid level circulation remnants.

Generally a broad surface low doesn't have the pressure gradient to regenerate rapidly.

NHC did say shear would be lessening in a few days.

Would south of Cuba be 91L?

[northjaxpro]

That is an interesting theory Nimbus and why I am so curious about the area south of Cu ba today.

[OuterBanker]

I know that Fla is getting flooding rains, but the ULL save you from a tropical system. It really prevented any tropical development. BTW, what's that around 35 n 70 w.

[NDG]

I know that Fla is getting flooding rains, but the ULL save you from a tropical system. It really prevented any tropical development. BTW, what's that around 35 n 70 w.

That's just a weak area of low pressure, lots of westerly shear over it, no development expected.

[daylynsmom]

I know that Fla is getting flooding rains, but the ULL save you from a tropical system. It really prevented any tropical development. BTW, what's that around 35 n 70 w.

Waiting on those flooding rains. Nothing since 5am. Overnight there were some pretty impressive Tstorms but it has been sunny & overcast the past couple hours.

[Sanibel]

Just weak remnants flared by shear. No wind here.

[northjaxpro]

Observing Key West radar the LLC/vort about 60-70 miles west/southwest of Key West is becoming a bit more defined in its presentation imo.

[tropicwatch]

Decent vorticity in the Florida straits.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, it's a real mistake to write any established vortex off before it crosses the Gulf Stream, even in hostile shear.



Do you think that's the center?

[xironman]

You can see the old mid level vort from Pico San Juan, it would be funny if they both managed to get going, now they are so far apart.

[BocaGirl]

Here in East Boca we are just out of the conveyor belt of rain unless the rain band shifts east we aren't going to get much up here today

Actually, here in East Boca at 12:30 pm the sun is shining! Windy and sunny...neighbors standing around and talking about it in disbelief. A few kids are flying kites. We did have storms last night...maybe more will come through later.

So much for Erika.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[Airboy]

Observing Key West radar the LLC/vort about 60-70 miles west/southwest of Key West is becoming a bit more defined in its presentation imo.

Yes, the rotation motion is stronger compared to some hours ago.

[ObsessedMiami]

Based on my superficial observation, most of this moisture is south of the straits and the system is moving north, so most of the rainfall would track north and occur this afternoon through tomorrow morning in SFL. Kind of silly to see people saying Erika wasn't anything.