ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Makes sense just to rename the existing threads. Plenty of sense I will add.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed this should still be the same thread, since it is the same general circulation.

[MGC]

Shear in the GOM all depends on the ULL parked over the north central gulf coast. Sure don't look to be in a hurry to move along. X-Erika has a small window to regenerate. I think the 40% is rather generous.....MGC

[northjaxpro]

Shear in the GOM all depends on the ULL parked over the north central gulf coast. Sure don't look to be in a hurry to move along. X-Erika has a small window to regenerate. I think the 40% is rather generous.....MGC

I agree with you. I was quite surprised NHC went to 40% development chances out 5 days. The window for 90L to redevelop is only about 24-36 hours imo before the shear in the GOM gets to 90L after about 48 hours from now.

[jaxfladude]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, with Thread Title issue dealt with, it's back to watch mode for any possible tropical regeneration with this system, I hope this system finally just falls apart....
Local NWS(Jacksonville, Fla. ) thinks some heavy rainfall totals thru Thursday is possible from the remnants of Erika(or 90L whatever it is officially called by the NHC) ...that is from the last time I checked on Facebook...

[northjaxpro]

Jaxfladude, hey good to see ya on here today. Just wanted to let you know this morning's projection from models were calling for 3-6 inches for our area by mid week, but I am thinking that will change significantly. The convergenge of moisture over our region, combined with 90L moving up the west coast of the peninsula is going to potentially bring some extreme rainfall to area during next week.

[tailgater]

Nakid swirl alert This one actually had a wind shift as it passed the Caymans

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... slDpKQ.jpg

You'll have to ffwd to be able to see it.

[MetroMike]

NWS Tampa Bay just issued a Flood Watch for all of West-Central Florida till Mon.pm. Stated it may have to be extended North later on.

[Stormcenter]

I believe the NHC has it right. IMO

Shear in the GOM all depends on the ULL parked over the north central gulf coast. Sure don't look to be in a hurry to move along. X-Erika has a small window to regenerate. I think the 40% is rather generous.....MGC

I agree with you. I was quite surprised NHC went to 40% development chances out 5 days. The window for 90L to redevelop is only about 24-36 hours imo before the shear in the GOM gets to 90L after about 48 hours from now.

[tropicwatch]

Global Hawk is checking out conditions NE of Ex-Erika 90L.

[jlauderdal]

Erika's outer edge is pushing a rain band towards the island just outside my window over the Gulf.

its become active on the se coast, was very warm and breezy earlier with sun so instability was on the increase and plenty of moisture to work with

[wxman57]

Looks like Erika's remnants will be drawn northward up the trof in the eastern Gulf tomorrow. There's no surface feature to track any longer. Redevelopment chances 5% or lower.

[floridasun78]

Looks like Erika's remnants will be drawn northward up the trof in the eastern Gulf tomorrow. There's no surface feature to track any longer. Redevelopment chances 5% or lower.

nhc disagree with you i go what nhc say* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think they named it 90l to keep it on storm forum

[floridasun78]

I think they named it 90l to keep it on storm forum

*

[Jevo]

Looks like Erika's remnants will be drawn northward up the trof in the eastern Gulf tomorrow. There's no surface feature to track any longer. Redevelopment chances 5% or lower.

[johngaltfla]

Looks like Erika's remnants will be drawn northward up the trof in the eastern Gulf tomorrow. There's no surface feature to track any longer. Redevelopment chances 5% or lower.

Jevo, please don't post that image. Because if you do, TWC will post their red flashing "Florida on Alert" like they did this morning two hours after the storm dissipated.

[jaxfladude]

Jaxfladude, hey good to see ya on here today. Just wanted to let you know this morning's projection from models were calling for 3-6 inches for our area by mid week, but I am thinking that will change significantly. The convergenge of moisture over our region, combined with 90L moving up the west coast of the peninsula is going to potentially bring some extreme rainfall to area during next week.

Not good if you are right....a possible bad flood risk for NE Fla is not far fetched...P.S. It's nice to be on Storm2k...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

Looks like Erika's remnants will be drawn northward up the trof in the eastern Gulf tomorrow. There's no surface feature to track any longer. Redevelopment chances 5% or lower.

jim i report from spaceshio that ERIKA dead for good live in pace see you few years

[tropicwatch]

Patience grasshopper.