BobHarlem wrote:The final discussion for Erika mentioned this
"The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear
could relax by the time the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, and
there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. "
Which is counter to what wxman is saying?
Shear maps I've seen have it lessening under 15 kts in the SE Gulf by the time Erika's remnants get there tomorrow. The ULL causing the SW shear is forecast to lift NE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.