ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

I don't know if they will drop her as a TS, if they do with 40mph winds still out there then they will have to cancel the TS Warnings. I'd give it through the heat of today and especially now if the center is north of the Coast of Cuba.

[NDG]

BTW, I am going to the beach today, enjoy today before the monsoon gets re-enforced by her remnants, which is all is going to be unless it reorganizes in the eastern GOM.

[drezee]

I feel like there was too much "-removed- last night. The data was pretty clear. You see this AM the squall line peel SW as thr surface obs showed. The microwave last night just showed turbulent thunderstorms not a COC.

That not a COC, that is just the structure of the thunderstorms. Just a picture in time...no more no less. Not a eyeWall or anything

The IR resembles a squall line. I wish we had visible...I would be looking for an outflow boundary to the SW...

The winds, temp, etc still seems like a squall line

[NDG]

I don't know if they will drop her as a TS, if they do with 40mph winds still out there then they will have to cancel the TS Warnings. I'd give it through the heat of today and especially now if the center is north of the Coast of Cuba.

Tropical Waves can have winds of 40 mph, if there is no closed circulation why make an exception to the rule especially since it has no global model support for development over the next 36-48 hrs if not longer.

[northjaxpro]

You probably will be dodging rain showers NDG if you are going to the East Coast like Daytona or Cocoa. We already have showers moving onshore at my locale . Picked up about 3/4 inch in late afternoon/evening showers which came ashore . Very wet pattern with the onshore flow and iot is all going to be even more enhanced with Erika/ Erika's remnants heading towrd the peninsula in the coming days.

[AutoPenalti]

Woke up with the NHC cone. Come on...

[Dean4Storms]

I don't know if they will drop her as a TS, if they do with 40mph winds still out there then they will have to cancel the TS Warnings. I'd give it through the heat of today and especially now if the center is north of the Coast of Cuba.

Tropical Waves can have winds of 40 mph, if there is no closed circulation why make an exception to the rule especially since it has no global model support for development over the next 36-48 hrs if not longer.

True.

[tolakram]

Recon should make a n, s pass here in the next hour.

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW doesn't look too bad, still a swirl.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[wxman57]

Model guidance initialized as "Disturbance Erika" north of Cuba near 21.3N/75.6W.

[LarryWx]

It is looking more and more like Erika will not be the 1st intact TC that became a TS E of 50W to hit the CONUS during a strong oncoming Niño since 1930. The only two on record to do so in those 17 seasons were in 1930 and 1899. Analogs for the past two years of ENSO have actually been suggesting the highest threat to the US may be a NE gulf H hit in late Sep-early Oct fwiw. This would very likely be from a genesis west of 50W.

[HurricaneBelle]

from the NHC Twitter:

NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 23s23 seconds ago

Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.

[psyclone]

I feel like there was too much "-removed- last night. The data was pretty clear. You see this AM the squall line peel SW as thr surface obs showed. The microwave last night just showed turbulent thunderstorms not a COC.

That not a COC, that is just the structure of the thunderstorms. Just a picture in time...no more no less. Not a eyeWall or anything

The IR resembles a squall line. I wish we had visible...I would be looking for an outflow boundary to the SW...

The winds, temp, etc still seems like a squall line

Yep that microwave image from last night was an illusion, just as I had suspected. And I was lectured by a frequently overly bullish blue tagger for not believing it. The best thing about a system like this is you learn who to really pay attention to and who not to. Go back and read the thread from last night...it's oh so enlightening in retrospect. I hope everyone in Florida enjoys their day. Beach weather.

[northjaxpro]

Actually NDG, the flow has changed from yesterday from onshore to now southerly today as the upper level south/southwest winds from the trough in the Central GOM are coming over the peninsula today. It is this upper wind flow flow pattern which is going to pick up and bring whatever is left of Erika NW then more north toward the pebninsula in the next 72 hours.

[tolakram]

Cuba radar is not convincing.

saved image


source: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

[AutoPenalti]

Erika has just become a wave.

[Dean4Storms]

MIMIC-TPW doesn't look too bad, still a swirl.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

And for the first time in a long time if they locate a surface LLC there with that swirl north of Cuba the MLC appears to be there as well.

[northjaxpro]

Again folks, I like to see wxman57 bring out Bones if this was a situation in which no lives were lost or land areas affected. This is not the case with Erika. Erika has been a deadly storm unfortunately, so I just would think it would be inappropriate to make light of the matter when you have people dead in Dominica and the rest of that island suffering really bad. Also, the same terrible flooding conditions are occuring in Haiti and DR.

[wxman57]

Erika has just become a wave.

Technically, Erika became a wave yesterday. Today, the NHC finally came to the conclusion that it won't regenerate into a TD/TS. They were only continuing advisories because Erika was still producing TS winds and causing flooding over Haiti & the DR AND they thought it might regenerate.

[tgenius]

Erika has just become a wave.

Technically, Erika became a wave yesterday. Today, the NHC finally came to the conclusion that it won't regenerate into a TD/TS. They were only continuing advisories because Erika was still producing TS winds and causing flooding over Haiti & the DR AND they thought it might regenerate.

wxman, Do you even think given the remnants position that SFL will even get rain out of this?