ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Wow it looks bad on satellite this morning, almost like it split down the middle and one half went southwest and the other northwest.

[jlauderdal]

I guess the recon is going to investigate the 5 AM estimated position first off the SW tip of Haiti, it is going over the vorticity over northern part of the eastern Cuban coast at cruising altitude, lol.

they are looking down and saying nothing here..next, lol

[Frank2]

Not really, if you look at the last couple of runs of the GFS it brings this vorticity quickly into the FL straights by tomorrow morning, about the time it starts encountering better UL conditions, doubt that it will have enough time by then to get much organized.
Which btw, I don't think it is nothing much more than a vorticity this morning, there's no LLC of Erika left

.

I agree - as said earlier, its racing WNW and could be in the straights by tonight, but even then the SW winds aloft are unfavorable...

The models failed, except for the GFS, which, except for one or two runs, showed the correct outcome (lots of moisture but no cyclone)...

P.S. People think media as being their electronic parent, when in reality they are like Walmart - they are in the business to make money, and storm coverage results in good ratings numbers, which means they can charge more for advertising, and results in higher stock values for their investors...

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 290854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN
HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 75.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed
for these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

[xironman]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 290854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN
HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 75.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed
for these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

I feel bad for who made this call, obviously the best with the data available, but not so great now.

[BobHarlem]

Looking at the RAMB Images http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 290715.jpg

I'm really confused with how they came up with the 5AM Position.

[xironman]

Looks like recon decided to investigate the northern vort.

[blp]

It look like recon is interested in our area north of Cuba.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

Looks like whatever spin is left is where the recent model runs thought it would be, north coast of Cuba.

[NDG]

Recon is now descending so it looks like it will indeed start investigating that vorticity first.

[northjaxpro]

Smart move for Recon to fly.into it .

[NDG]

Looking at the first visible HR satellite loop I can clearly see that north of the northern coast of eastern Cuba is where the new vorticity has formed, west of Haiti and south of the southern coast of Cuba there is nothing but south to north moving low clouds.
But I still don't expect much out this vorticity today, it is racing WNW towards the FL Straights.

[xironman]

Getting some decent SFMR winds, probably still a TS.

[HURAKAN]

...ERIKA APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...

8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 29
Location: 21.0°N 75.5°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[Weatherboy1]

8am advisory relocates storm further north...

[NDG]

Getting some decent SFMR winds, probably still a TS.

First they have to find a closed circulation before they can continue advisories as a TS.

[Weatherboy1]

Will she have one last gasp and the ability to regenerate or is it time to bring in Bones? Lol

[cycloneye]

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Surface observations from Cuba and reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that Erika is degenerating
to a trough of low pressure. If subsequent data confirm this,
advisories will be discontinued later this morning.

[tolakram]

They really need to work on the graphics.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, it will be in the vicinity of the Florida Straits later tonight.