ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

This radar out of Cuba seems to be showing more of Erika so maybe its better.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

All Cuba radars

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... B1=RADARES

[galaxy401]

The new NHC discussion didn't mention the microwave images. It might be just an illusion.

[floridasun78]

This radar out of Cuba seems to be showing more of Erika so maybe its better.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

All Cuba radars

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... B1=RADARES

i put this already

[gatorcane]

snippet from 11pmEST discussion:

It is interesting to note, and to
remember, the fact that most of the state-of-the art dynamical
models were forecasting Erika to become a strong hurricane up to
yesterday, and today basically dissipate the cyclone.

[drewschmaltz]

In the 11:00 pm discussion on nhc.noaa.gov they say:

"Therefore, Erika is forecast to slow down and turn to the northwest in about two days."

also

"There is a significant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be required."

Shows how much I know... If I were taking a test I would have said it's going NW already and that there should be watches up.

[BobHarlem]

In the 11:00 pm discussion on nhc.noaa.gov they say:

"Therefore, Erika is forecast to slow down and turn to the northwest in about two days."

also

"There is a significant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be required."

Shows how much I know... If I were taking a test I would have said it's going NW already and that there should be watches up.

The mentioned they were basically waiting to see how Erika reacts to Hispaniola, if that microwave animation is accurate I'd bet you see them at 5AM.

[floridasun78]

We must emphasize that although this would normally be an
appropriate time for a tropical storm watch for portions of southern
Florida, following typical timelines, we have elected to wait until
we see if Erika survives after it passes Hispaniola. There is a
significant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be
required. so we not see watch here depend how it look on sat

[AutoPenalti]

[drewschmaltz]

^ that center looks south west of the MLC we were watching...

[Stormcenter]

No doubt I would continue to watch it. IMO

Is this finally done? Or should I still watch this in FL?

[floridasun78]

south fl out cone

[Javlin]

I still think the low level vortex we were following at southern tip of the D.R. is now just south of the panhandle of Haiti, near the western tip. on the western edge of the heaviest convection as the norm with her.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-swir-long.html

I am inclined to agree and thinking a more W/WNW movement is still going to occur just looking at low level steering which seems to be her motivation for movement.Now we know their are fewer LLC's in the fight

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[WPBWeather]

south fl out cone

For now. I hope L. Avila is seeing this right...

[psyclone]

You can bet if that microwave imagery was legit organization the NHC would have mentioned it.

[Bocadude85]

With the track now over Cuba why haven't the TS warnings for the central Bahamas and the watches for the northwest Bahamas been dropped?

[floridasun78]

With the track now over Cuba why haven't the TS warnings for the central Bahamas and the watches for the northwest Bahamas been dropped?

maybe because it issue by Bahama weather office

[Steve H.]

I'm not totally convinced yet, Let's see where she is tomorrow morning.

[CronkPSU]

With the track now over Cuba why haven't the TS warnings for the central Bahamas and the watches for the northwest Bahamas been dropped?

Lol good point, so South Florida not in the cone but islands further north and east are?

[Jevo]

We used to joke around that Avilia would write an 11pm disco and Stewart would come in at 5am and just be like "Ok everything that guy said at 11pm is crap, here's whats going on"

[floridasun78]

nhc holding watch to see how look in morning