ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

I hate to be the downer here but I think looks are deceiving.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

It's getting that look Danny did just before it washed out. LLC is probably gone, and the mid level will most likely poof by morning. Just my opinion.

I don't get it, what about this graphic makes it look like it's going to go poof to you? I'm asking because I honestly don't know. To me, it looks like Hispanola cut off a little piece of orange spinning stuff and sent it racing towards the wnw above DR but the COC kept doing it's thing... Teach me.

The spin is decreasing and it may be stretching out. Kind of like the wave behind it that had a slight spin and then washed out. Honestly I have a different opinion every time I look at the loop so it may be nothing.

[toad strangler]

I hate to be the downer here but I think looks are deceiving.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

It's getting that look Danny did just before it washed out. LLC is probably gone, and the mid level will most likely poof by morning. Just my opinion.

I don't get it, what about this graphic makes it look like it's going to go poof to you? I'm asking because I honestly don't know. To me, it looks like Hispanola cut off a little piece of orange spinning stuff and sent it racing towards the wnw above DR but the COC kept doing it's thing... Teach me.

There is a huge blow up of convection to go along with this. Very interesting. Hollywood or reality? lol

[LCfromFL]

Franklin walking in with the 11pm discussion and someone shows him the microwave imagery over DR

OMG that has to be the funniest thing I've seen on here!

[tailgater]

:uarrow: There is NO WAY Erika is organized as well as microwave shows it.

This example is the reason why you should not post microwaves are gold radar is supporting.

huh

[Weatherlover12]

Is this finally done? Or should I still watch this in FL?

[Evil Jeremy]

Is this finally done? Or should I still watch this in FL?

Always stay vigilant.

[floridasun78]

Take a look at this.

It's finally moving WNW

it way look on their make look moving ne cuba? but i hear shear high over north cuba

[Blown Away]

I'm not seeing what you guys are... What is the lat/long of this MLC?

[Weatherlover12]

Is this finally done? Or should I still watch this in FL?

Always stay vigilant.

Thank you. I feel like she will surprise us but I'm not a met so I don't have good knowledge on this haha

[MGC]

Impressive blow up of convection over Haiti this evening. Just wondering if it is upslope induced. Guess we'll find out when the MCL moves over the Windward Passage later tonight......MGC

[floridasun78]

ok here cuba radar from east of cuba link http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

[psyclone]

Is this finally done? Or should I still watch this in FL?

Never turn your back on a disturbance in the heart of hurricane season. at least check in once in awhile.

[bamajammer4eva]

Next NWS radar in Erika's path is out of Guantanamo Bay of Cuba. Mostly clear now but maybe something trying to show over far East.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes

[blp]

Here is Guantanmo radar. Might show something later.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

[AdamFirst]

my RA for my dorm at FIU just visited us and confirmed our hurricane evacuation plans (just in case)

[tailgater]

I still think the low level vortex we were following at southern tip of the D.R. is now just south of the panhandle of Haiti, near the western tip. on the western edge of the heaviest convection as the norm with her.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-swir-long.html

[Blown Away]

So how right of the 00z models, if any, will the current movement be?

[jaxfladude]

If indeed that is the MLC, it would not take much of a convective flare-up over open water to mix that circulation down to the surface, this may be a new ball game folks if it is indeed a MLC. We will find out over the next 12-18 hours if we see convection increase as the system pulls away from Hispaniola.

Also, my prayers to all in Haiti and DR as I am sure they are getting pounded by extremely heavy rainfall which unfortunately is going to lead to massive mudslides on that island. Erika is a deadly storm, with over 20 people losing their lives in the devastating flooding in Dominica, and now in Hispaniola, and she is not done yet folks. There is a real possibilty Erika could be around for many days to come if she can find her legs and really get going next 24 hours.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As a fellow Jacksonville Fla resident, I quote and +1 this!!!

[Blown Away]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 72.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[floridasun78]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 72.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

so now moving wnw not west