ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#2701 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:54 pm

That mid-level ciirculation is moving northwest. It won't be long until it moves back over water .
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2702 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:54 pm

Don't let that image fool you it's not moving NW, look at the entire loop image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#2703 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:55 pm

So if we are to track the MLC moving forward, it's currently tracking along the northern edge of the NHC cone.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2704 Postby blp » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:56 pm

I wonder if the mountains are enhancing the lift on this thunderstorms. Either way it shows the movement of quite clearly.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

HurriGuy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:43 pm
Location: Prairieville, LA

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2705 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:56 pm

I'm still going to follow the convection.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#2706 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:57 pm

The IR resembles a squall line. I wish we had visible...I would be looking for an outflow boundary to the SW...
0 likes   

hurricanekid416
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 179
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:43 pm

#2707 Postby hurricanekid416 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:57 pm

How long before this is over water again?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#2708 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What altitude is that circulation at?


Hi Craze,
I have to go look it up but I believe it is roughly from 700 mb up to about 300 or 400 mb or about 10,00 to 25,000 feet.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#2709 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:58 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:So if we are to track the MLC moving forward, it's currently tracking along the northern edge of the NHC cone.


Right now, from the mv sats, yup.
0 likes   

User avatar
CalmBeforeStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 600
Age: 71
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:55 pm
Location: Stuart, Florida

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2710 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:58 pm

HurriGuy wrote:I'm still going to follow the convection.

And the convection has a strong northern component also.
Last edited by CalmBeforeStorm on Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

#2711 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:59 pm

Wow.. Someone at CIMSS is on the ball to follow that feature for the last 24 hours.. We've been looking at swirls all day, and they've been locked in.

Image

Also whatever that feature is has nudged North of West in the last few hours
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

drewschmaltz
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:19 pm

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2712 Postby drewschmaltz » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:59 pm



Hispanola somehow turned on the lights there. Almost nothing until it reaches the coast. Also, the flare up and NW movement come at the same time... is it possible it gained altitude and caught sail?
Last edited by drewschmaltz on Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. PLEASE CONSULT SOMEONE WHO DOES. START WITH THE NHC. ALL POSTS ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2713 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:59 pm

This is one of the strangest systems I've tracked to date, that much I can say. It's like watching a really bad sports match but you keep getting drawn back.

There was a bit of a swirl SE of Jamaica earlier today, I think that might be in play as far as nudging it a bit to the northwest. MLC looking better than it has for awhile, even if over land (and even if mountain-induced.)

Whatever there is to this is also coming back into radar range, this time in eastern Cuba.
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2714 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:59 pm

tailgater wrote:Don't let that image fool you it's not moving NW, look at the entire loop image


You are right. It's not NW. It's WNW.
0 likes   

tatertawt24
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:57 pm

#2715 Postby tatertawt24 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:00 pm

I'll admit, the microwave is a bit of a head-scratcher... I don't see how it's possible that it's an eyewall forming though. Is it possible?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re:

#2716 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:00 pm

Jevo wrote:Wow.. Someone at CIMSS is on the ball to follow that feature for the last 24 hours.. We've been looking at swirls all day, and they've been locked in.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif

Also whatever that feature is has nudged North of West in the last few hours


Turned on a dime.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
alienstorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 496
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:29 pm
Location: Miami Fla western suburb

#2717 Postby alienstorm » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:01 pm

Once thing to note Port-au-Prince is reporting wnw winds showing that the LLC is just north or north northeast of there. Interesting developments
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2718 Postby blp » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:01 pm

Very nice conditions in the Bahamas. Could get interesting.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#2719 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:03 pm

alienstorm wrote:Once thing to note Port-au-Prince is reporting wnw winds showing that the LLC is just north or north northeast of there. Interesting developments


There you go. If you are correct (I didn't check that station yet) this is some first surface evidence that an LLC may be forming under the MLC and a wnw jog is commencing.
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanedude
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 1856
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 9:54 am
Location: Virginia Beach, Virginia
Contact:

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2720 Postby hurricanedude » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:04 pm

could the gfdl have been right all along?
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests