2015 EPAC Season

[Extratropical94]

11pm PDT / 2am EDT / 06Z - No change

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some development early next week while the
system moves toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is forming several hundred miles
southwest of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some development next week while the system moves
toward the west at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[tolakram]

source: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeswest/overview2/vis/

[Ntxw]

Another shot, someone just cranked up the EPAC. Triplets!

[Yellow Evan]

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could be conducive for
some development of this low next week while it moves toward the
west at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Ntxw]

Kilo finally became a hurricane. Triple Entente with Jimena and Ignacio. Per models all three hangs around for awhile, any guesses on total ACE between them?

[Extratropical94]

Kilo finally became a hurricane. Triple Entente with Jimena and Ignacio. Per models all three hangs around for awhile, any guesses on total ACE between them?

My guess would be around 60 units, plus maybe 30 from Kilo in the WPAC.

[Extratropical94]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could be conducive for
some development of this low next week while it moves toward the
west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Extratropical94]

Pacific powerhouse.

[Extratropical94]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development of this low by the middle of next
week while it moves toward the west or west-northwest at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Extratropical94]

Raw ADT ranking right now:

CIMSS:
Kilo: 6.8
Ignacio: 6.4
Jimena: 6.2

SSD:
Kilo: 6.5
Ignacio: 6.5
Jimena: 6.2

[Ntxw]

Epac/cpac went on steroids. Thats 3 active cat 4's at the same time!

These three systems alone could push the seasonal ACE over 150 units then start cracking top 10

[Extratropical94]

Epac/cpac went on steroids. Thats 3 active cat 4's at the same time!

These three systems alone could push the seasonal ACE over 150 units then start cracking top 10

That is indeed truly amazing. Unfortunately the BT data for Kilo makes him category 3 "only". I don't know if the CPHC nudges that up a little bit to 115 kt with the next advisory cycle before any of the other two weakens back due to ERC's or shear.

[Yellow Evan]

Epac/cpac went on steroids. Thats 3 active cat 4's at the same time!

These three systems alone could push the seasonal ACE over 150 units then start cracking top 10

That is indeed truly amazing. Unfortunately the BT data for Kilo makes him category 3 "only". I don't know if the CPHC nudges that up a little bit to 115 kt with the next advisory cycle before any of the other two weakens back due to ERC's or shear.

I could see both systems staying at 115 knts at 3z and Kilo should be 115 knts then.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions, however, are only favorable for slow development of
this system while it moves toward the west or west-northwest at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Ntxw]

Would be truly spectacular if that got itself together quickly and became a hurricane. 4 concurrent systems...

[Ntxw]

Went back and looked at last year's ACE around this date. On August 31st EPAC was at 126 units, currently stands around 133 units with the big three racking them up. Should be an interesting race. Just one Ioke like storm and 2014's yearly ACE can definitely be challenged.

They will get it over 140 easily which will then bring up the string of El Nino years into play

2006- 155 units
1982- 161 units
1997- 167 units
1991- 178 units <- this would then be in top 10
1994- 185 units

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wonderful view of the 3 category 4's, first time ever recorded in this basin. Enjoying this historical moment in the East Pacific

[Extratropical94]

The area of possible development is now Invest 97E.

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