ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

And I willl say, when it comes to track, I don't see how this avoids making a sharp NW or N turn before long

[floridasun78]

my wife say one publix here in miami emty of can food and water hurrrr coming because hype by news publix make some good money

[psyclone]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

Exactly! This how I feel... If another storm were to target FL.. I most likely won't take it seriously. I don't want it come but it would've been nice for her to give us some impact after all the prep we were told to do.
Thanks for saying this

You know this is absolutely absurd, selfish, borderline (I'm being polite) idiotic. There are dead people in the Islands, drowned due to this storm, and all you care about is if people in Florida will pay attention next time? Florida is not the center of the universe.

I guess this is directed at me (?)...Let me be clear. the islands have my sympathy. the rainfall that took place there could have happened from a non designated entity. Indeed, Dominica did not receive sustained TS winds (to my knowledge) and in fact was not (appropriately) under a TS warning. this is yet another tragic opportunity to impress upon the public that you need not have a strong system to generate tremendous rainfall. that hazard needs to be dealt with independent of a tropical cyclone as it can easily happen in the absence of one. And I speak from numerous experiences including a deluge of more than 2 FEET just a month ago...the combined result of a trough and an invest (95L). Needless to say I stand by my comment and believe it to be valid. to the extent that holes exist in current hazard awareness we should toss thoughts out there...additionally, your comment and choice of adjectives (whether directed to me or not) is well south of the standards of a moderator.

[tailgater]

[Stormcenter]

Haven't we've been hearing this for a few days now?

And I willl say, when it comes to track, I don't see how this avoids making a sharp NW or N turn before long

[AutoPenalti]

Woah.

[drewschmaltz]

You know that picture of "a woman on Mars"... Is this that or is that some well defined circulation?

[tgenius]

I don't even understand how that is even possible (though it probably isn't as impressive as it looks)

[cycloneye]

Very sad news from Dominica.

The Associated Press
‏@AP BREAKING: Dominica prime minister says 20 killed, island set back 20 years by damage from Tropical Storm Erika

[tailgater]

Well if it isn't a COC, whatever the NHC is tracking is maintaining some deep convection.

[blp]

Interesting microwave pass. That can't be that organized.

[galaxy401]

Is that really an eye from Erika???? If it is (which I don't), it is much more organized than we gave it credit for.

[bamajammer4eva]

I would think that hole in the middle is nothing but a mountain peak and the convection is all being forced around it rather than being a sign of organization. Kind of like if you have a pile of dirt in the middle of a plate and pour water in the plate water will go everywhere but that pile of dirt.

[ozonepete]

and someone said that this would go through the Florida straits and no one really believed him...

well just wait until the track changes again, lol...

[Weatherboy1]

Haven't we've been hearing this for a few days now?

And I willl say, when it comes to track, I don't see how this avoids making a sharp NW or N turn before long

Yes we have. But looking at steering winds from the CIMSS website, she is going to reach the end of the ridge before long. So I think she is going to finally "Behave" like the models say. Just the opinion of a semi educated amateur ... Listen to the experts!

[tailgater]

Yeah probably just the way the heavy thunderstorms formed. Maybe someone can give us a better explanation.

[Hammy]

Question for the pro-mets or other longtime experts: I've been watching a bit of a spin west of Haiti, presumably a result of the higher wind flowing around the mountains, how possible is it that when Erika gets there that it can help reform some sort of circulation?

[drewschmaltz]

I would think that hole in the middle is nothing but a mountain peak and the convection is all being forced around it rather than being a sign of organization. Kind of like if you have a pile of dirt in the middle of a plate and pour water in the plate water will go everywhere but that pile of dirt.

Can that sort of land interaction create a vortex?

[Alyono]

Question for the pro-mets or other longtime experts: I've been watching a bit of a spin west of Haiti, presumably a result of the higher wind flowing around the mountains, how possible is it that when Erika gets there that it can help reform some sort of circulation?

PV conservation would dictate that because the atmospheric column is larger over the water than over the mountains, that there will be an increase in vorticity. it's why low pressure systems often form downstream of the Rockies

[floridasun78]

I don't even understand how that is even possible (though it probably isn't as impressive as it looks)

that could cause by center hitting mountain in haiti?