ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[BucMan2]

No one said it was definitely was going anywhere-based on model interpretation we were just giving out info of where it might go. That's why there's a cone

[HURAKAN]

Look at that convection blowing up now ... Not sure how Erika is accomplishing this over Hispanola but honestly? NOTHING about this crazy storm surprises me at this point. Lol.

daily heating and orographic effects, nothing out of the ordinary

[wxman57]

Look at that convection blowing up now ... Not sure how Erika is accomplishing this over Hispanola but honestly? NOTHING about this crazy storm surprises me at this point. Lol.

There's no circulation to disrupt. The squalls can track across mountains just fine. They'll produce quite a bit of rainfall, though.

[ronjon]

Looks to me that shear has finally relaxed a bit over the storm.

[Bocadude85]

Look at that convection blowing up now ... Not sure how Erika is accomplishing this over Hispanola but honestly? NOTHING about this crazy storm surprises me at this point. Lol.

There's no circulation to disrupt. The squalls can track across mountains just fine. They'll produce quite a bit of rainfall, though.

Do you think we will see any rain or squalls from this here in SE Florida?

[wxman57]

Look at that convection blowing up now ... Not sure how Erika is accomplishing this over Hispanola but honestly? NOTHING about this crazy storm surprises me at this point. Lol.

There's no circulation to disrupt. The squalls can track across mountains just fine. They'll produce quite a bit of rainfall, though.

Do you think we will see any rain or squalls from this here in SE Florida?

It may well miss you to the south and west. If Erika's remnants move northward across Florida as slowly as the GFS & Euro are indicating, then it may turn out to be a Fay-type rain event for some areas.

[alienstorm]

If you look at the rainbow satellite picture north of Hispaniola and SE of the Turks and Caicos there may be something forming there. We have streamers going in and there is a little hook on the satellite picture. Time will tell if this is indeed a new LLC forming. If it is then all bets are off.

[babycane]

Look at that convection blowing up now ... Not sure how Erika is accomplishing this over Hispanola but honestly? NOTHING about this crazy storm surprises me at this point. Lol.

There's no circulation to disrupt. The squalls can track across mountains just fine. They'll produce quite a bit of rainfall, though.

Do you think we will see any rain or squalls from this here in SE Florida?

I can't imagine not getting at least some rain from this. But keep in mind, we have some damn strong thunderstorms almost daily (except for this weird year) during the summer, with high winds, strong gusts and such. I imagine it will just be like the rainstorms we're used to.

[ozonepete]

Does anyone else feel sort of scared at how terrible these predictions have been? All of a sudden several days in, the "storm" heads to the west coast and maybe Gulf of Mexico. Why wasn't this discussed as a distinct possibility all the time we were being told the "storm" would be on the east coast or very close to it?
People depend on this info for safety. What happened?

It is NOT going to the Gulf of Mexico past the west Florida coast unless it's a small weak bag of thunderstorms that collapses as it goes past Key West. There is a considerable md to upper level trough that it can never get past to get well into the Gulf. It just ain't going to happen.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

If you look at the rainbow satellite picture north of Hispaniola and SE of the Turks and Caicos there may be something forming there. We have streamers going in and there is a little hook on the satellite picture. Time will tell if this is indeed a new LLC forming. If it is then all bets are off.

I would bet that is just an eddy of some sort but I do think the convection might emerge off the north coast.

[ozonepete]

So they went with the southern LLC...nice...just want to point out its moving at 21MPH.. That low level is caught up in the easterlies. IMO this might further up the coast around MS or AL..

But to get there it has to be reduced to a very weak tropical wave. That trough will not allow anything that rises above 700 mb to go west.

[emeraldislenc]

It is amazing the shift in the track the past 24 hours. I know the models are not perfect but it is apparent they had a difficult time with Erika.

[floridasun78]

If you look at the rainbow satellite picture north of Hispaniola and SE of the Turks and Caicos there may be something forming there. We have streamers going in and there is a little hook on the satellite picture. Time will tell if this is indeed a new LLC forming. If it is then all bets are off.

nhc say may happen here is still a chance for a center to re-form
farther to the north during the passage over Hispaniola

[psyclone]

Does anyone else feel sort of scared at how terrible these predictions have been? All of a sudden several days in, the "storm" heads to the west coast and maybe Gulf of Mexico. Why wasn't this discussed as a distinct possibility all the time we were being told the "storm" would be on the east coast or very close to it?
People depend on this info for safety. What happened?

Not at all. If the storm were a deep, well organized system you can bet the forecasts would have been far better. it's a whole lot harder when you spend most of your time trying to find a center (or determine whether one exists at all).

[weathernerdguy]

and someone said that this would go through the Florida straits and no one really believed him...

[drewschmaltz]

Does anyone else feel sort of scared at how terrible these predictions have been? All of a sudden several days in, the "storm" heads to the west coast and maybe Gulf of Mexico. Why wasn't this discussed as a distinct possibility all the time we were being told the "storm" would be on the east coast or very close to it?
People depend on this info for safety. What happened?

I work at a mower shop in Orlando. It's funny, when all the NHC guidance was ramping up Erika off FL to the East, no one was even talking about it. Even though this is my first post, I've read every post on Danny and Erika - twice. I explained how even though it was somewhat unlikely, this could be a major event for Florida. This morning everyone wakes up and freaks out - customers are buying up chain saws, chains, generators, etc now that the cone of uncertainty is over us. I explained the situation as I learned it here - high pressure, low pressure, land, center fixes, shear, LLC, Mid level, etc... it was a great storm to learn and I spent a lot of time digging deeper into terms I'd never heard before (D-MAX).

Even though it was obvious the read for this storm was and remains difficult there was one thing that was not difficult. That's reading the advisories that come out a few times a day. You know what just about every single one of those advisories said? It said there was an abnormal amount of uncertainty. You know what else? If somehow it happens, we're days away from a gulf coast event. So, don't be shocked. Just read and keep up to speed. Understand just a little bit more than the track or just read the discussions.

Lastly, I'm interested by what appears to be an expanding storm. What exactly are we witnessing this hour?

I AM NOT A SOURCE OF INFORMATION. DO NOT MAKE ANY DECISIONS BASED ON WHAT I SAY. WEATHER RELATED OR OTHERWISE.

[JonathanBelles]

Tonight's Post:

http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/28/he ... d-florida/

[Weatherboy1]

Look at that convection blowing up now ... Not sure how Erika is accomplishing this over Hispanola but honestly? NOTHING about this crazy storm surprises me at this point. Lol.

There's no circulation to disrupt. The squalls can track across mountains just fine. They'll produce quite a bit of rainfall, though.

I worry about loss of life down there too ... With this kind of rainfall, deforested mountains, and a lack of resources to cope, it'll be a sad situation

[davidiowx]

Erika will be lucky to still be a storm in 24 hours. It will bring rain to western Florida but as ozonepete said, it will be a "small weak bag of thunderstorms" at that point.

[Weatherboy1]

Look at that convection blowing up now ... Not sure how Erika is accomplishing this over Hispanola but honestly? NOTHING about this crazy storm surprises me at this point. Lol.

daily heating and orographic effects, nothing out of the ordinary

That's really all it is? Especially with the strongest convection S and W of the mountains?