ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Steve]

I hear ya psyclone. I guess being that gales are nautical (sea) measurements, that's what they went with. Looks really rough in Hispaniola this evening so prayers out to them. I'm guessing they feel like it's a tropical storm. And certainly all those people who lost someone in the flash flooding in the Leeward Islands. So it comes down to what people experience. if I'm somewhere and get no effects, that's certainly a different experience than some of that flash flooding earlier this week. Speaking of which, the QPF 00Z could be extremely interesting for those in Florida. I think the GFS this morning may have underestimated some of the rainfall amounts based on its track. If there is slow movement or a stall out near the Big Bend (obviously assuming unpredictable Erika still has some kick), you could see some serious, serious rainfall literally anywhere across the Peninsula. Imho, Rainfall impacts could easily end up being the story for Florida. we will see in a couple of days.

[Weatherboy1]

This might just be the first system I can ever remember that looks better fighting Hispanolas rugged terrain than before it made landfall. Wonder what other surprises Erika has planned for us. Sheesh!

[CrazyC83]

This might just be the first system I can ever remember that looks better fighting Hispanolas rugged terrain than before it made landfall. Wonder what other surprises Erika has planned for us. Sheesh!

This is starting to remind me of Tropical Storm Fay in 2008...

[tolakram]

If you catch it quick, last visible of the evening.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[tolakram]

Live IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[chris_fit]

It's almost as if the friction of the land/mountains is helping to slow down the 'center' and allowing it to consolidate temporarily

[wzrgirl1]

Something tells me we are not finished with Erika yet. Quite tenacious.

[galaxy401]

The bad news though is it's dumping heavy rain over the Dominican Republic and soon Haiti...

[DrinknByTheBay]

Don't follow the "center" - it doesn't exist. Follow the convection, which is moving WNW-NW across the DR. That's what Jack (Beven) is focusing on at the NHC. The convection is what will cause the problems, not the center. Jack's a good meteorologist.

This has piqued my interest. The thinking process that goes behind this switch in focus. Is there a way to cut bait, so to speak, with the "center" and follow the convection? When do you know when to do so? Is it purely skill and tracking experience? Or are there tell tale signs to change the focus of what your looking at?

[tolakram]

Valid point Steve. I like a 50 knot level as that's a real storm (same wind criteria for severe t-storm warning). and it would help us confine naming to more meaningful storms. for storms with gales less than 50 knots I would love to see a "deep depression" designation with gale warnings used for landfall. I am old enough to remember when there were no tropical storm warnings. there were hurricane warnings or gale warnings. it's just something I've long contemplated but it's probably never workable...sorry for the OT rant.

I was not aware there was a time without tropical storm warnings.

I think about storms like Allison that never got that strong but did massive damage. We need to get to the end of Erica before we determine if this was really a false alarm or not, IMO. If a lot of rain falls as this system gets trapped, if it gets trapped, the advance warning might be worth it.

[johngaltfla]

Valid point Steve. I like a 50 knot level as that's a real storm (same wind criteria for severe t-storm warning). and it would help us confine naming to more meaningful storms. for storms with gales less than 50 knots I would love to see a "deep depression" designation with gale warnings used for landfall. I am old enough to remember when there were no tropical storm warnings. there were hurricane warnings or gale warnings. it's just something I've long contemplated but it's probably never workable...sorry for the OT rant.

I was not aware there was a time without tropical storm warnings.

I think about storms like Allison that never got that strong but did massive damage. We need to get to the end of Erica before we determine if this was really a false alarm or not, IMO. If a lot of rain falls as this system gets trapped, if it gets trapped, the advance warning might be worth it.

Agreed. If anything organized as far as an LLC gets over the Florida Straits and our warm water in the Eastern Gulf it will not take long for the storm to ramp back up. And we've seen some storms bomb off our coast on numerous occasions.

[LCfromFL]

This might just be the first system I can ever remember that looks better fighting Hispanolas rugged terrain than before it made landfall. Wonder what other surprises Erika has planned for us. Sheesh!

This is starting to remind me of Tropical Storm Fay in 2008...

We don't like the "F" word around my house! I ended up with about 18" of Thomas Creek in my house after she dumped a ton of rain (after an already rainy August) in our area.

[blp]

Looks like a weak center just passed Cabo Rojo. Winds went from ENE to N to NNW to W and now WSW followed by a pressure drop in 4 hours.

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IPEDERNA2

[jinftl]

could end up with more weather being 125 miles east of the center here in southeast FL if this tracks up the gulf coast of florida than we would have had this remained 50 miles to our east if it remains a weak mess with the weather displaced on the east side of the 'center'

[tropicwatch]

Looks like a weak center just passed Cabo Rojo. Winds went from ENE to N to NNW to W and now WSW followed by a pressure drop in 4 hours.

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IPEDERNA2

By George, I think you've got something

[AdamFirst]

Don't follow the "center" - it doesn't exist. Follow the convection, which is moving WNW-NW across the DR. That's what Jack (Beven) is focusing on at the NHC. The convection is what will cause the problems, not the center. Jack's a good meteorologist.

This has piqued my interest. The thinking process that goes behind this switch in focus. Is there a way to cut bait, so to speak, with the "center" and follow the convection? When do you know when to do so? Is it purely skill and tracking experience? Or are there tell tale signs to change the focus of what your looking at?

The low level center may likely break apart over the terrain of Hispaniola, but there is a substantial mid-level center. That's why the NHC disco says that a center regeneration north of Hispaniola is a possibility.

[seatrump]

Quick update from Providenciales as night falls. With each new forecast this is routed further away from us.
The winds have been picking up continuously throughout the day. I live on a hill on the south shore. Although not a meteriologist I work in a field that constantly refers to weather reports and forecasts. I estimate the steady winds to be 20kts with gusts to 30 occasionally higher in squalls. Only a few short but fast moving rain showers so far.
Had thought we might even miss most of the rain but looking at some of the convection images it won't take much of a move nw to soak us.
In any case our preparations are complete so we'll see what the night brings.

[AutoPenalti]

7pm

[HURRICANELONNY]

Be safe. I should be getting heavy rains here in S. Fl sunday night and monday.. Probably not much wind but some of those squalls could be heavy.

[HurriGuy]

So are they calling it a storm now or??
They're graphic is confusing.