ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

What a mess. Biggest forecasting bust for the Bahamas that I can remember since Debby (2000).

I completely forgot about that one, and ironically wasn't it also forecast to hit S Florida as a decent intensity hurricane only to go south and weaken?

Indeed. Very similar forecasts that just never panned out. She also refused to take the WNW turn that the NHC continually insisted upon.

[AutoPenalti]

Erika has been moving more westward for the past several hours and
the initial motion is 280/17. There is no change to the forecast
philosophy from the previous advisory. A generally west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for the next 48
hours or so as Erika moves around the southwestern periphery of the
subtropical ridge. After that time, a northwestward and northward
turn and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as Erika moves
between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of
Mexico. While the track guidance is generally in good agreement, it
should be noted that the guidance has been consistently forecasting
a west-northwestward turn that has so far failed to occur. On the
other hand, there is still a chance for a center to re-form
farther to the north during the passage over Hispaniola. So while
the forecast track has been shifted west of the previous advisory,
it still lies near the northern edge of the guidance envelope for
the first 48 hours to maintain some continuity with the previous
forecast. Additional adjustments may be necessary depending on how
Erika evolves during the next 12-18 hours.

[alienstorm]

Ok I have gone back and study the high visible loop and the center or ill define center is just east of Cape Romano which is the peninsular that sticks south. If you look carefully that is where the center has been going all day also it has slow down considerably and there is some intense hot towers going up right over it.

This is my best estimate of this mess at this time, if not than this is an open wave with the vigorous weather to the east side. We shall see what the NHC says at 5PM

5PM 17.9N 71.2W pretty good my tired eyes can now go back to rest.

[Blizzard96x]

Do these people never learn? Clearly it isnt heading north.

[Extratropical94]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0515W5_NL+gif/173843W5_NL_sm.gif

Do these people never learn? Clearly it isnt heading north.

That's still the old graphic.

[AutoPenalti]

Do these people never learn? Clearly it isnt heading north.

Reminds me of when I was 12 and started tracking Hurricanes and thought every single storm that formed would head straight for Florida, boy have I changed.

[Hammy]

There is a sort of low pressure between Haiti and Cuba that seems to be occurring due to the wind flow between the two islands, so this may help to finally move it to the north.

[jlauderdal]

how in the world can they have planes out there constantly and not have a better understanding of the setup...ridge, easterly flow, etc...look the atmosphere is very dynamic and nhc is damn good and they must be really frustrated too but the amount of resources with the results is not very good

[adam0983]

Tropical storm Erika isn't even worth following anymore everyone should enjoy your weekend and maybe you will get a thunderstorm storm or too the NHC really got this one wrong. The models all need to be fixed they can't be taken seriously anymore they have no clue. It is laughable. Just an opinion not a forecast

[AutoPenalti]

Tropical storm Erika isn't even worth following anymore everyone should enjoy your weekend and maybe you will get a thunderstorm storm or too the NHC really got this one wrong. The models all need to be fixed they can't be taken seriously anymore they have no clue. It is laughable. Just an opinion not a forecast

That would be a very wrong way of looking at it, you never know what can happen with these storms.

[Sanibel]

The present Cuba track should cut down the worst case scenario strengthening.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

I like the latest NHC discussion - makes clear they are being generous to maintain this as a TS, and want to see what happens for next 12 hours or so with Erika. Also waiting to issue TS watches/warnings for FL in case nothing survives Hispanola. And on top of that, points out that, yeah, the whole "forecast turn to WNW/NW" thing from the models hasn't materialized for basically forever. LOL

That Discussion nailed it exactly correct.

[fci]

Do these people never learn? Clearly it isnt heading north.

In my opinion, this is simple a "continuity" map IF Erika did what it was supposed to do.
It didn't and to show it simply stopping now would be too radical.
Most likely, 11:00 will be the last advisory and you won't see another map.

[Stormcenter]

You got to give it to the NHC they never want to make drastic track changes from advisory to advisory except for when they are forced to. I'll never forget before Katrina made her second landfall they still had the storm going right over the Fl. panhandle in their morning advisory even though most of the models had it heading into the central gulf coast 300 miles to the west. Then on the next advisory they shifted it 300 miles west and the rest is history. Anyway it their 5pm discussion on Erika it sounds like the NHC is frustrated with her big time and has no clue what she is going to do or where she is going. It's almost like they are hoping she follows their projected track. IMO

[psyclone]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

[Sanibel]

The south of Hispaniola center just convected itself nicely.

[Stormcenter]

I totally disagree with that but hey that's your choice.

Tropical storm Erika isn't even worth following anymore everyone should enjoy your weekend and maybe you will get a thunderstorm storm or too the NHC really got this one wrong. The models all need to be fixed they can't be taken seriously anymore they have no clue. It is laughable. Just an opinion not a forecast

[fci]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

For the weather enthusiasts like us; they have gone exactly the other way; "Invests" "Packets"......
I'm glad that they have done that as it makes it easier to follow than the old "an area of disturbed weather" in a Tropical Weather Outlook provided every 6 hours.

[Stormcenter]

This is a long way from being over with IMO.

The south of Hispaniola center just convected itself nicely.

[beoumont]

Only real opportunity for some intensification is in the Bahamas. Gulf highly sheared environment

I don't think it's heading for the Bahamas, and even SE Florida may miss the rain. I need to head down to Miami Beach to take observations with that Weather Channel meteorologist, though.

She does need back-up to repeat the jellyfish warnings she keeps making the viewers aware of.