ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Myersgirl]

Maybe she's headed for the Windward Pass

[AutoPenalti]

Ahaha, Recon found winds of 173mph.

Fortunately, it was just an error.

[SFLcane]

Most not considering possibility of reformation after she's clears DR to the NW. I'd say there's opportunity with those ssts in the Bahamas as it tracks towards sfl. We shall see but that's gotta be on the table

[WeatherOrKnot]

Any chance of this (whatever is left over) going into the gulf and then back across the Florida peninsula like Charley or Wilma? Or is it more than likely going to head into the panhandle?

[Tireman4]

yeah I wouldn't bring Bones in until tomorrow morning.

Bones won't make an appearance until possibly next Monday or Tuesday. He thinks whatever is left of Erika will be in the eastern Gulf as a disturbance around then.

Can we bring in Dr. Beverly Crusher?

[wxman57]

I wouldn't be surprised if Erika is maintained at least until 11 p.m. to give it a few more hours to see if a circulation center reforms north of Hispanola, or if something pops out over the west end by then. Otherwise, you have to cancel all these watches and warnings ... and then just re-issue them if something does in fact emerge out over the water. But if nothing does by 11, maybe then Erika finally gets spiked.

Just my opinion, listen to the experts, etc.

Since Erika may still cause significant flooding across the DR over the next 12-24 hours I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC just kept the classification as a TS through then. Even though it may not qualify as a TS due to the lack of a clear LLC, it is still producing TS winds and heavy rain. The NHC would not want people in its path to forget about it or treat it any less seriously.

[wxman57]

yeah I wouldn't bring Bones in until tomorrow morning.

Bones won't make an appearance until possibly next Monday or Tuesday. He thinks whatever is left of Erika will be in the eastern Gulf as a disturbance around then.

Can we bring in Dr. Beverly Crusher?

Bones says she's "busy" with Capt. Picard.

Even as a strong tropical wave with TS winds we need to keep a close watch on Erika. It could cause some very heavy rainfall for land areas in its path.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Im kind of wondering if what ever is left of erika goes west and nothing for s.fl. or anyone in U.S.

[Sanibel]

If you look up the Labor Day storm of 1935 on Unisys Tropical Archives it was a nothing right at about the same distance Erika is now from Florida. It then proceeded to become the strongest hurricane to ever hit America with 200mph winds. Same waters, same time of the year.

[psyclone]

I think she's dead as a coherent TC but remains a vigorous disturbance capable of generating very heavy rain and gusty winds. If our current Erika had never been designated a TC we would all be watching with interest as there would be potential for additional development. I believe that is a prudent course of action right now. Things can change quickly at this time of the year and some potential exists as long we have a disturbance traversing warm waters.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Frank P]

Looking at the latest vis sat loops I can't discern any kind of rotation north of the DR, all I see is a big outflow boundary getting spit out... there still hints of rotation south of the island but to my untrained eyes it still appears to be in the mid levels... my humble untrained opinion only...

[Frank P]

If you look up the Labor Day storm of 1935 on Unisys Tropical Archives it was a nothing right at about the same distance Erika is now from Florida. It then proceeded to become the strongest hurricane to ever hit America with 200mph winds. Same waters, same time of the year.

Most likely not the same environmental conditions either..

[Stormcenter]

Not likely. IMO

Im kind of wondering if what ever is left of erika goes west and nothing for s.fl. or anyone in U.S.

[Weatherlover12]

Could is do a Irene track of 1999?
What are the conditions in the western Caribbean like?

[wxman57]

I was looking at the projected shear across the eastern Gulf for Erika's ETA Sunday evening. Ha! Good luck there, Erika!

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

See eddy's spinning all over, trying to see where to the NW this "could" reform, that's where the strongest winds were found? Hard to have any conclusion except continued west.

[SFLcane]

Only real opportunity for some intensification is in the Bahamas. Gulf highly sheared environment

[Weatherboy1]

Only real opportunity for some intensification is in the Bahamas. Gulf highly sheared environment

Yes, I think Erika's last chance to make something of herself as a stronger system is if she A) emerges quickly from Hispanola, as in over the next few hours B) does so on the NORTH side of the island so she has lots of water ahead of her and C) can finally vertically stack. There's a chance of that happening, but it's not a very big one in my opinion (Now watch me wake up first thing tomorrow to a system with an eye showing up on satellite. LOL )

Just my semi-educated amateur's opinion ... listen to the experts as always

[wxman57]

Only real opportunity for some intensification is in the Bahamas. Gulf highly sheared environment

I don't think it's heading for the Bahamas, and even SE Florida may miss the rain. I need to head down to Miami Beach to take observations with that Weather Channel meteorologist, though.

[MGC]

Lets hope Erika dissipates over Hispaniola. It does look rather pathetic this afternoon......MGC