ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[fci]

I truly wonder if watches will come on at 5pm for SFL. It of course causes the domino effect with schools/businesses following the closure of schools, etc.

If the forecast stays the same there will most likely be.

Yeah nothing wrong with putting up watches. It is the warnings that would close schools, work, etc.

It's the weekend. School is not until Monday and they can wait until Sunday to make a decision.
This is a very premature discussion about a system that may be a blob of convection not even closed off in 12-24 hours.

[tolakram]

Whatever LLC's were south of DR seem to be rapidly dissipating. This now has a look of something spilling over DR and heading NW. In my opinion. Lots of rain, unfortunately.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[nativefloridian]

So.....I'll throw a monkey wrench into the mix. Is it possible that Erika's COC is trying to form in the area southwest of Santo Domingo. I'm looking at the RAMMB loop and it "appears" there may be some circulation going on in that nook on the south side of the of the island. Or maybe I've been looking at too many loops and have become a little loopy myself.


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[Hammy]

Anyone else thinking an Isaac 2012 type track is possible? It looks like that semi-permanent low near Cuba may try to pull it up north of the islands and ride north of Cuba until it gets to the Gulf. (And this system seems to be a sheared version anyway.)

[Jevo]

Here we are all debating West vs WNW and if it will make it north of DR and Aric throws out "oragraphic forcing" and we all turn into



Well done Aric.... Well done

[Sanibel]

Weak disorganized systems with a large circulation like this are notorious for redeveloping a new center when the center of gravity of the circulation finds favorability over water.

[Aric Dunn]

Here we are all debating West vs WNW and if it will make it north of DR and Aric throws out "oragraphic forcing" and we all turn into



Well done Aric.... Well done

lol.. i never said it was going to survive... was just attempting to explain some of the continued west motion.. that and the term might be wrong but the explanation is good :p

[vbhoutex]

Whatever LLC's were south of DR seem to be rapidly dissipating. This now has a look of something spilling over DR and heading NW. In my opinion. Lots of rain, unfortunately.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

What I am seeing is basically what you said, but I still see an elongated circulation where the llc's were. I fear the worst rain wise for The Dominican Republic as it appears that the clouds are piling up against the mountains or starting to and that could unleash unbelievable rains. I hope I am wrong. I also have a friend in Haiti in the mountains in a very vulnerable area. Praying that he and his family are ok!!

[AutoPenalti]

Problem with Erika is that despite its large circulation, it can technically form a new circulation north of DR out in the water and bam it can reintensify just like that.

Am I right or am I missing something?

[Aric Dunn]

Whatever LLC's were south of DR seem to be rapidly dissipating. This now has a look of something spilling over DR and heading NW. In my opinion. Lots of rain, unfortunately.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

What I am seeing is basically what you said, but I still see an elongated circulation where the llc's were. I fear the worst rain wise for The Dominican Republic as it appears that the clouds are piling up against the mountains or starting to and that could unleash unbelievable rains. I hope I am wrong. I also have a friend in Haiti in the mountains in a very vulnerable area. Praying that he and his family are ok!!

yeah there definitely is a broad circ down there.. but there is little inflow from the S or sw. wont last long like that.

[gtalum]

It almost seems like Erika's "center" is purposely trying to maneuver around the islands without making landfall.

Remember when Ivan scooted right around Jamaica in 2004?

No, I'm not saying Erika=Ivan. I'm not a met either.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like some serious storms building over the mountains.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Interesting eddy or something spinning NW out of DR...

[Jevo]

Here we are all debating West vs WNW and if it will make it north of DR and Aric throws out "oragraphic forcing" and we all turn into



Well done Aric.... Well done

lol.. i never said it was going to survive... was just attempting to explain some of the continued west motion.. that and the term might be wrong but the explanation is good :p

Well, Ya won me over.. Ill take that explanation over the "gut feelings" anyday, and I learned a new word.

[Aric Dunn]

Problem with Erika is that despite its large circulation, it can technically form a new circulation north of DR out in the water and bam it can reintensify just like that.

Am I right or am I missing something?

I think north of the island is much more likely. but there needs to be convection up there and right now there is nothing so cant happen unless more of the energy moves away from the DR to the north

[Aric Dunn]

Here we are all debating West vs WNW and if it will make it north of DR and Aric throws out "oragraphic forcing" and we all turn into



Well done Aric.... Well done

lol.. i never said it was going to survive... was just attempting to explain some of the continued west motion.. that and the term might be wrong but the explanation is good :p

Well, Ya won me over.. Ill take that explanation over the "gut feelings" anyday, and I learned a new word.

well I spelled it wrong.. its Orographic

[stormlover2013]

Poof casper has showed lol, lol erika is a ghost lol, GFS and EURO 2 of the best models show some good rains and some windy conditions now and thats about it

[wxsouth]

I no longer see any evidence of low level west winds. Probably is an open wave at this point. I'm not convinced it will ever recover.

[tropicwatch]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Interesting eddy or something spinning NW out of DR...

Could be something, look at what the HH picked up north of DR on its way home.

[Aric Dunn]

I no longer see any evidence of low level west winds. Probably is an open wave at this point. I'm not convinced it will ever recover.

yeah, if there is its confined to a very small area..