ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Wind shear has not improved since yesterday.

[Gustywind]

Erika is going down as a rainmaker after Dominica and what's going on right now. If this mornings GFS model verifies and keeps it over north/central Florida through Labor Day Weekend, it'll be unprecedented rains there.

Right! And Guadeloupe was not so far because of 3 areas received at least 100 millimeters. By the way, don't forget to go this link : viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117486&hilit=&start=60 to have the latest datas related to TS ERIKA in Guadeloupe.

[cycloneye]

Hi folks.I thought I was not going to be able to post this morning because of no power but in my area it has stayed so here I am but some towns are without power Some branches and trees fell but that has been it.Puerto Rico in general has escaped the most rain and strongest winds although there have been many reports of tropical storm force winds between 25-40 mph with some higher gusts.Rain so far has been below what it was forecast as between 4-8 inches and isolated areas were going to get 12 inches but so far only between 1-3 inches have fallen but we can get some more this morning.The bad thing is that the drought will not end.Yes the lakes have risen but not sufficient.Overall,Puerto Rico has fared well as most of the system remained to the south.

[Florida1118]

...CENTER OF ERIKA APPROACHING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HEAVY RAIN STILL AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...

8:00 AM AST Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.7°N 68.5°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Well...it still has a center I guess lol. Somewhere

[BobHarlem]

They are using the one that's pretty obvious on San Juan radar. It's actually moved due west of the 5am position, south of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic now. Erika is another one that just took "Weak = west" to heart. I'm really wondering how far west it will get before land.

[Gustywind]

Decreasing numbers for TS ERIKA...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/0545 UTC 17.4N 67.3W T1.5/2.0 ERIKA
27/2345 UTC 17.8N 64.7W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
27/1745 UTC 16.6N 63.5W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
27/1145 UTC 16.7N 62.9W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
27/0545 UTC 17.2N 60.9W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
26/2345 UTC 17.0N 59.5W T2.0/3.0 ERIKA
26/1745 UTC 16.4N 58.2W T2.0/3.0 ERIKA
26/1145 UTC 16.2N 56.8W T3.0/3.0 ERIKA
26/0545 UTC 16.1N 54.8W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA
25/2345 UTC 16.0N 53.4W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
25/1745 UTC 15.8N 51.6W T2.0/2.5 ERIKA
25/1145 UTC 15.1N 50.2W T2.0/2.5 ERIKA
25/0545 UTC 14.3N 48.3W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA

[NDG]

I think we should not be surprised that Erika has not been able to get organized and may not be able to do much if it survives today, we all forget there's a raging El Niño with the Caribbean closed for business this season.

[CourierPR]

Is it possible that Erika passes just south of Hispaniola?

[tolakram]

Is it possible that Erika passes just south of Hispaniola?

I think it is if it doesn't gain any organization. I'm not sure why steering should be to the northwest when lower levels are all screaming to the west. Then again I'm not a met.

[rolltide]

Looking at San Juan radar it seems Erika may skirt the south side of the DR.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[shortwave]

are there any west winds with this currently? must need more coffee, didn't see any.

[tolakram]

I take that back, it's already too far north. Speed this loop up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray

[northjaxpro]

The HUGE question of the day: Can Erika survive through the shear zone today? Stay tuned.. .

[caneman]

The HUGE question of the day: Can Erika survive through the shear zone today? Stay tuned.. .

not just shear but also center disruption from the mountains. I,would be shocked if it survives.

[chris_fit]

If Erika crosses the eastern side of Hispaniola she should make it, there aren't to many mountains there. If she crosses the central/Western/Southern side then c-ya in a few years Erika.

Oh, and don't forget the shear. I had a feeling this was going to happen, I doubt Erika will be more than a breezy rain/flood event. And we don't need any more rain near the Tampa Bay area in FL

Just my opinion, listen to the NHC.

[northjaxpro]

I have seen several cyclones recover from their entanglement with Hispaniola. David in 1979 and Fay in 2008 come immediately to my mind and there are others for sure. Please folks, can not let our guard down with this system.

[Gustywind]

Slight increasing numbers...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1145 UTC 17.5N 68.2W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
28/0545 UTC 17.4N 67.3W T1.5/2.0 ERIKA
27/2345 UTC 17.8N 64.7W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
27/1745 UTC 16.6N 63.5W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
27/1145 UTC 16.7N 62.9W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
27/0545 UTC 17.2N 60.9W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
26/2345 UTC 17.0N 59.5W T2.0/3.0 ERIKA
26/1745 UTC 16.4N 58.2W T2.0/3.0 ERIKA
26/1145 UTC 16.2N 56.8W T3.0/3.0 ERIKA
26/0545 UTC 16.1N 54.8W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA
25/2345 UTC 16.0N 53.4W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
25/1745 UTC 15.8N 51.6W T2.0/2.5 ERIKA
25/1145 UTC 15.1N 50.2W T2.0/2.5 ERIKA
25/0545 UTC 14.3N 48.3W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA

[sunnyday]

What happened to Erika being in the 90 degree waters of the Bahamas for 36 hour so that it strengthens into a hurricane?

[Gustywind]

Best Track.

AL, 05, 2015082812, , BEST, 0, 176N, 684W, 45, 1008, TS

[chris_fit]

I have seen several cyclones recover from their entanglement with Hispaniola. David in 1979 and Fay in 2008 come immediately to my mind and there are others for sure. Please folks, can not let our guard down with this system.

Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 - Although that affected the eastern/northern side of Hispaniola - smaller mountains there.