GeneratorPower wrote:My two cents, as an interested amateur, recorded for historical purposes.
This storm has all the hallmarks of a dangerous, surprise-type disaster waiting to happen. The storm is difficult to forecast. There is a giant convective ball literally in the center of the Caribbean Sea while the LLC supposedly is near Puerto Rico. That's hundreds of miles difference. There are arguments over multiple centers in multiple levels. The NHC goes out of its way to highlight the uncertainty, which is greater than normal. Summary: we don't know where it's going nor how strong.
Then, there's the wild card. The warm water and forecasted good conditions off Florida. We have a storm that's unpredictable heading into an area of favorable conditions. Yet curiously the news media is downplaying the threat. So now, we have a general population that has been told no big deal in advance of an unpredictable storm.
The risk is that this gets to near FL and explodes. Overnight. Like Humberto off Texas some years ago. I'm not forecasting that. I'm not forecasting anything. Just pointing out that the ingredients are present for a big surprise and massive problems because of it.
The media these days has upticked it's responsibilities actually. They have the backing to downplay the events. Right now the reality is that this does not have much support behind being a threat anymore. There is a fine line between reporting and hype; and unfortunately the effects of instilling concern is more detrimental than to downplay until its too late to prepare for a major disaster. The media has learned alot since Floyd and Rita, and cannot afford to create panic and distrust of that magnitude ever again; as scientists (and amateur scientists) we laugh and disdain them when they do wrong, but they have a hard line of responsibility they have to navigate. Downplaying right now is the right move; they have their own on-staff professionals, and in the end they will adapt accordingly. Truth be told, if a weak TD is 120 miles off shore coming at you, and it goes under a modest RI (25mb) it goes from TD to Cat 2/3 (which can happen) a disaster is almost inevitable on the grand scale. Honestly, the best thing I would advocate is to have your hurricane preparedness plans streamlined for all Categories of storms, and can be completed within 4-8 hours to protect life. 12-16 hours to protect major property; and the rest is unfortunately going to have to be a sacrifice due to the nature of nature. My 2 cents on these thoughts.
