ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[BobHarlem]

Loads of Rainfall for Okeechobee, and probably more flooding for the Peace river. If it brings rain to Tampa, not good either.

[LarryWx]

Vort over Lake Okeechobee at hour 96 but nothing showing up on the surface. Looks like its toast at that point.

Actually, my high resolution 0Z GFS has a weak 1010 mb sfc low in the extreme E GOM Tue night moving NNW or NW.

[SouthFLTropics]

Drought Buster for sure

[SouthFLTropics]

At hour 120 it might be trying to get organized just off Tampa Bay.

[blp]

It is easy to see it gets disrupted by passing over Hispaniola and cannot recover quick enough. I think you just cannot look ahead with this system. If it manages to avoid land this will swing back. Considering how disorganized this is any reforming further north will change the run. We need let this play out tomorrow and see what happens when it passes Hispaniola.

[PTrackerLA]

Well, so much for the favorable conditions . Still think the end game won't be decided until after she clears the DR.

[toad strangler]

At hour 120 it might be trying to get organized just off Tampa Bay.

GFS riding the west coast of FL on up.

[SouthFLTropics]

It is easy to see it gets disrupted by passing over Hispaniola and cannot recover quick enough. I think you just cannot look ahead with this system. If it manages to avoid land this will swing back. Considering how disorganized this is any reforming further north will change the run. We need let this play out tomorrow and see what happens when it passes Hispaniola.

Bingo...That is exactly what I've been thinking. When she clears the islands then we can see what she looks like and what she's working with.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, so much for the favorable conditions . Still think the end game won't be decided until after she clears the DR.

+1

[Evil Jeremy]

It is easy to see it gets disrupted by passing over Hispaniola and cannot recover quick enough. I think you just cannot look ahead with this system. If it manages to avoid land this will swing back. Considering how disorganized this is any reforming further north will change the run. We need let this play out tomorrow and see what happens when it passes Hispaniola.

Bingo...That is exactly what I've been thinking. When she clears the islands then we can see what she looks like and what she's working with.

Agreed. Everyone get some rest, there's been enough bickering for the day. Tomorrow, we will have answers.

[SouthFLTropics]

No matter how you shake it the peninsula looks like it's in for copious amounts of rainfall!!!

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS: headed for a FL panhandle landfall next THU still moving NNW though weak (1008 mb at this stage).

[BobHarlem]

Into Thursday, hanging out in the Gulf NW of Tampa?

[ROCK]

omg every Floridian is on the SFWMD web site....totally crashed....

[N2FSU]

+162hr

[Stormcenter]

So with every run it seems as though the model's tracks shift more and more westward. Now who said this was a done deal yesterday morning when the models had Erika riding the east coast and then out to sea? Like I said yesterday still way too early to make any calls on eventual track assuming it survives. IMO

[Bocadude85]

The 0z HWRF is north of the 18z so far

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF 00z is now running and out to 6 hours...Looks a little north of the 18z position.

[SouthFLTropics]

The 0z HWRF is north of the 18z so far

You beat me to it...LOL

[Bocadude85]

The 0z HWRF is north of the 18z so far

You beat me to it...LOL

Through 12 hours still north of 18z. Still looks to hit the DR though